Ohio State remains top dog at No. 1 in 2nd week of CFP rankings (3:18)Check out who has landed where in the second College Football Playoff rankings of the season. (3:18)
There wasn’t much movement Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff’s second ranking, with the top five staying the same, but a big winner might have been the entire state of Texas.
The No. 3 Aggies are still in a first-round bye position, Texas Tech moved up to No. 6 after its convincing win against BYU and Texas moved into a safer spot at No. 10 thanks to BYU dropping to No. 12.
And in the state of Florida, No. 15 Miami regained its position as the committee’s top ACC team, while No. 24 South Florida is the first Group of 5 team to appear in the CFP top 25 this season.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they’d receive, ranked from the most to least, based on Tuesday night’s second committee ranking.
First team out: Oklahoma. The Sooners had a bye this week to prepare for Alabama, which is essentially a playoff elimination game for OU. Unlike Texas, the Sooners likely wouldn’t have enough on their résumé to compensate for a third loss, even if it was on the road to a top-four team. Their best wins would be against Michigan, Auburn and Tennessee — and they’d lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to Texas if their records remain the same.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
First team out: Miami. The Canes got promoted to No. 15 ahead of Louisville and Virginia, in spite of the loss to the Cardinals. Miami has a 5.9% chance of reaching the ACC title game, and a 10% chance to reach the playoff, according to ESPN Analytics. Miami still has a lot of work to do to earn an at-large bid, and equally as important is hoping some teams above them lose.
Still in the mix: Duke, Louisville, Pitt, SMU, Virginia. All of these teams have at least a 5% chance to still reach the ACC title game, according to ESPN Analytics. Of all of the teams listed here, though, Georgia Tech, Virginia, SMU and Miami lead the ACC with at least a 10% chance to reach the CFP.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Would be in: South Florida. After Memphis lost, the two teams most likely to play each other in the American Conference title game are South Florida and North Texas. The Bulls have the best chance (42%) to win the American, according to ESPN Analytics. South Florida is ranked No. 24 this week with wins against Boise State, Florida and North Texas.
Still in the mix: James Madison, North Texas, Tulane. JMU has won seven straight games and its lone loss was at Louisville, but the Dukes don’t have anything on their résumé to compensate for it. JMU’s schedule is No. 115 in the country, according to ESPN Analytics. JMU has the second-best chance to reach the CFP (35.8%) behind South Florida (39.7%). North Texas and Tulane are still alive because they both still have at least a 44% chance to reach the American title game.
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
The bubble watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s second ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
Last team in: Texas. The Longhorns earned a promotion to No. 10 after BYU dropped to No. 12. They had a well-timed bye on Saturday to prepare for Georgia, and no team has a better chance to impress the selection committee this month than Texas. The Longhorns will face two top-five opponents in No. 5 Georgia and No. 3 Texas A&M, but with a bad loss to Florida to go along with the defeat by Alabama, Texas is still on the bubble even though it could appear to be in a safer spot this week. If Texas finishes as a three-loss team, it’s conceivable it could be ranked in the top 12 but would likely face a similar situation to Alabama last year. The Tide was the committee’s top three-loss team but got bumped out of the top 12 during the seeding process to make room for a conference champion that earned a guaranteed spot. With the ACC and Group of 5 champions currently outside of the committee’s top 12, it looks like the No. 11 and No. 12-ranked teams would be excluded — and that’s probably the ceiling for a three-loss Texas team.
Still in the mix: Vanderbilt. The Commodores need some chaos in order to get back into the conversation, but the overtime win against Auburn kept hopes alive. Vandy isn’t going to play in the SEC championship game, and its only remaining opponents are against Kentucky and Tennessee. Texas, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt are jockeying for a fifth at-large bid for the SEC — which isn’t guaranteed — and Texas has the head-to-head win over Vandy. If OU and Texas both lose, though, and Vandy wins out, Vandy could move up on Selection Day.
Still in the mix: Michigan. The Wolverines have two respectable road losses — to USC and Oklahoma — but they have a chance at the best win in the country if they can beat rival Ohio State for a fifth straight season. If Michigan runs the table, it would have a 46% chance to reach the playoff — ninth best in the country, independent of other results. The head-to-head tiebreakers could be a factor when ranking Michigan against USC and Oklahoma, but at 10-2 with a win against the committee’s top team, the Wolverines would be in the discussion.
Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders separated themselves from the rest of the league with Saturday’s resounding win against BYU, which is one of the best wins in the country. With the bump two spots to No. 6, the Red Raiders are now within striking distance of a first-round bye if they can move into one of the top four spots on Selection Day. It’s not inconceivable considering Ohio State and Indiana are likely to play each other in the Big Ten title game, and Alabama still has a tricky game against Oklahoma on Saturday. This position also gives Texas Tech a little cushion should it lose in the Big 12 championship game.
First team out: BYU. The biggest movement in the ranking was with BYU sinking to No. 12, where it would be excluded from the playoff if it were today to make room for No. 12 South Florida, which is the projected Group of 5 champion. If BYU wins the Big 12, which is still a realistic scenario, it will clinch a spot in the playoff regardless of where it’s ranked. BYU’s chances of earning an at-large bid, though, took a significant hit on Saturday because of how it lost to Texas Tech — with a subpar offensive performance that included three turnovers.
Still in the mix: Cincinnati, Utah. Cincinnati made its first appearance this week at No. 25 in the committee’s ranking. The Bearcats — and Utah — have at least a 17% chance of reaching the Big 12 title game. Any Power 4 team with a realistic shot at playing for its conference title has a chance at the 12-team field because the five highest ranked conference champions are guaranteed bids. Cincinnati only has one Big 12 loss (the other was the season-opener to Nebraska in Kansas City) but it was a 45-14 drubbing to Utah. The Bearcats have a chance at a statement win on Nov. 22 when they host BYU. There’s a lot of respect within the committee meeting room for Utah, but with Baylor, Kansas State and Kansas left on the schedule, winning the Big 12 is their most realistic path to the playoff.
Last team in: Georgia Tech. Even though Miami checks in as the committee’s top ACC team though at No. 15, Georgia Tech has a far better chance of reaching the ACC title game. The ACC continues to struggle with its top two teams — Virginia and Louisville — losing on Saturday night to unranked opponents Wake Forest and Cal, respectively. That means Georgia Tech and Duke (yes, Duke) are the two most likely teams to play for the ACC title, according to ESPN Analytics. Georgia Tech still has an opportunity to quiet its naysayers, though, when it plays rival Georgia in the regular-season finale. While it would be one of the best wins in the country, it might not be enough to catapult the Yellow Jackets back into the field if they don’t win the ACC. The ACC isn’t in danger of being excluded from the playoff — its champion will get in — but it’s becoming increasingly unlikely that the league runner-up will join them.
Ohio State remains top dog at No. 1 in 2nd week of CFP rankings (3:18)Check out who has landed where in the second College Football Playoff rankings of the season. (3:18)
Check out who has landed where in the second College Football Playoff rankings of the season. (3:18)
Jump to a conference: ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten SEC | Independent | Group of 5 Bracket
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas, Texas A&M
Based on the committee’s second ranking, the seeding would be:
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Ole Miss No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oregon
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Alabama No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M No. 10 Texas/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ) No. 2 Indiana No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ) No. 4 Alabama