Why Jaylen Warren should be started in fantasy in Week 11 (0:55)Tristan H. Cockcroft explains why a favorable matchup versus the Bengals defense makes Jaylen Warren a must-start fantasy running back in Week 11. (0:55)
Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you’re torn between two similar players and simply don’t know which one to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
“Adj. FPA,” or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players’ weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it’s unfavorable. Also remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team’s personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my — and the ESPN fantasy staff’s — most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Our matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon season totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
Matchups highlight: Rico Dowdle, Carolina Panthers (at Atlanta Falcons). Dowdle’s emergence as the Panthers’ starting running back was inevitable. His metrics have been considerably better than Chuba Hubbard’s since Hubbard returned from a calf strain in Week 7. Over the past four weeks, Dowdle totaled 68 more rushing yards than expected, nine explosive runs (10-plus yards gained) and 16.2% of his carries clocked at least 15 mph, per Next Gen Stats, while Hubbard’s numbers in the same categories were minus-45, one and 11.8%. Dowdle’s 43.4 fantasy points and 76% rate of offensive snaps played the past two weeks set him up for a huge game facing this near-league-best matchup. Two of the position’s best single-game scores of 2025 have come against the Falcons in the past four weeks alone (Jonathan Taylor’s 49.6 fantasy points in Week 10 and Christian McCaffrey’s 39.1 in Week 7).
Matchup to avoid: Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Detroit Lions). Is there truly any matchup in which Barkley is a must-sit? Perhaps not, since he’s the RB11 in total fantasy points and RB13 in points per game. But he’s more matchup-susceptible than you might think. Barkley has a pedestrian 3.9 yards per carry and three games with fewer than 10 fantasy points, and both his explosive-play rate and average speed are down this season compared to his big 2024. This is one of Barkley’s toughest matchups all season, against a Lions team that has allowed more than 15 points to a running back only once (Quinshon Judkins, 21.5 in Week 4), and has allowed 10-plus fantasy points only six times.
Matchups highlight: Tee Higgins, Bengals (at Steelers). The Steelers might have name brands in their secondary, including seven-time Pro Bowler Jalen Ramsey and six-time Pro Bowler Darius Slay, but they’ve consistently struggled to rein in opposing wide receivers. For the season, they’ve afforded the position the most fantasy points per game (40.6) and the most targets (215), with 15 wide receivers scoring at least 15 points in a game against them. Higgins is one of the names on that list, totaling 21.6 points on 10 targets when the two teams met in Week 7, a game in which Ja’Marr Chase (38.1 points on 23 targets) also had huge numbers. Higgins continues to put up fantasy-relevant numbers despite being Joe Flacco’s No. 2 target. He has averaged 19.3 points (fifth best among wide receivers) since Flacco’s installation as the starter.
Matchups highlight: Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders (at Miami Dolphins). The bye week takes two of the top seven tight ends (TE2 Tyler Warren, TE7 Juwan Johnson) out of commission, forcing fantasy managers to get more creative at the position. Why not Ertz, who has a 23.7% target share over the past five weeks? The opposing Dolphins have struggled mightily against tight ends all season — their 3.5 adjusted FPA is fourth most — but especially so over the past two weeks, surrendering a combined 35.9 fantasy points to Baltimore Ravens tight ends in Week 9 and 22.0 to Bills tight ends in Week 10.
Matchup to avoid: Sam LaPorta, Lions (at Eagles). While he has rebounded somewhat from his disappointing sophomore campaign, averaging 11.9 fantasy points after only 10.9 last season, both averages fall noticeably shy of the 14.1 he averaged as a rookie in 2023. LaPorta has a modest 18.6% target share and only four red zone targets all season. That’s not a large enough workload to keep him above the matchups tier among tight ends, and this is one of his toughest. The Eagles have held the position to the fewest fantasy points per target (1.22), with only three individuals scoring as many as 10 points in a game against them.
Why Jaylen Warren should be started in fantasy in Week 11 (0:55)Tristan H. Cockcroft explains why a favorable matchup versus the Bengals defense makes Jaylen Warren a must-start fantasy running back in Week 11. (0:55)
Tristan H. Cockcroft explains why a favorable matchup versus the Bengals defense makes Jaylen Warren a must-start fantasy running back in Week 11. (0:55)
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Chicago Bears)