NBA execs, scouts on Mavs' spiral and five more early-season trends

play2:10Shaq on Nico Harrison firing: ‘Just part of the business’Shaquille O’Neal and Kenny Smith react to the Dallas Mavericks firing GM Nico Harrison, debating whether he was unlucky to lose his job.

play1:10Shams breaks down LeBron’s first full practice of the seasonShams Charania joins “NBA Today” and breaks down LeBron James’ first full practice of the season in the G League before his 2025-26 debut.

play0:56Perk: Calls for Lawrence Frank’s firing over Bradley Beal newsKendrick Perkins says Clippers president of basketball operations Lawrence Frank deserved to be fired after trading for Bradley Beal, who is scheduled for season-ending surgery.

Tim BontempsCloseTim BontempsESPN Senior WriterTim Bontemps is a senior NBA writer for ESPN.com who covers the league and what’s impacting it on and off the court, including trade deadline intel, expansion and his MVP Straw Polls. You can find Tim alongside Brian Windhorst and Tim MacMahon on The Hoop Collective podcast.Follow on XBrian WindhorstCloseBrian WindhorstESPN Senior WriterESPN.com NBA writer since 2010 Covered Cleveland Cavs for seven years Author of two booksFollow on XNov 14, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

Windhorst: Mavs fired Nico Harrison to ‘save their brand’ (0:43)Brian Windhorst explains the reactions and reasoning to the decision to dismiss GM Nico Harrison. (0:43)

Shaq on Nico Harrison firing: ‘Just part of the business’Shaquille O’Neal and Kenny Smith react to the Dallas Mavericks firing GM Nico Harrison, debating whether he was unlucky to lose his job.

Shaquille O’Neal and Kenny Smith react to the Dallas Mavericks firing GM Nico Harrison, debating whether he was unlucky to lose his job.

Shams breaks down LeBron’s first full practice of the seasonShams Charania joins “NBA Today” and breaks down LeBron James’ first full practice of the season in the G League before his 2025-26 debut.

Shams Charania joins “NBA Today” and breaks down LeBron James’ first full practice of the season in the G League before his 2025-26 debut.

Perk: Calls for Lawrence Frank’s firing over Bradley Beal newsKendrick Perkins says Clippers president of basketball operations Lawrence Frank deserved to be fired after trading for Bradley Beal, who is scheduled for season-ending surgery.

Kendrick Perkins says Clippers president of basketball operations Lawrence Frank deserved to be fired after trading for Bradley Beal, who is scheduled for season-ending surgery.

Do you believe Orlando has figured out its offense?

Do you believe the Spurs and Lakers are top-four seeds in the West?

Do you believe the Clippers will continue looking this old?

Do you believe the Rookie of the Year race will remain wide open?

There weren’t many people, inside the NBA or outside of it, believing the arguments Nico Harrison made in February as to why he orchestrated one of the most shocking deals in league history in sending Luka Doncic from the Dallas Mavericks to the Los Angeles Lakers.

Jump to intel: Will sliding Mavs have to trade AD? Will Magic figure out their offense? Will Lakers and Spurs stay this hot? Will Clippers keep looking this old? Will Thunder capture 70-plus wins? Will the ROY race stay wide open?

Tim Bontemps: In conversations with sources around the NBA this week in the wake of Harrison’s firing, there is a near universal belief that the Mavericks cannot remain as bad as their 3-9 record and minus-6.5 point differential suggests. Does that mean league insiders are projecting a playoff run?

“I still think they could be good if everyone is healthy,” a Western Conference executive told ESPN. “But you can’t bet on that.”

Even if healthy — Dallas is far from it now, with Anthony Davis playing just five games and Kyrie Irving sidelined after an ACL tear in March — the flaws within the roster remain. D’Angelo Russell, the one proven point guard on the active roster, has been completely marginalized by coach Jason Kidd in favor of Brandon Williams, who is on a partially guaranteed minimum deal.

And while Williams has shown flashes — he had 17 points and nine assists in Wednesday’s loss to the Phoenix Suns — Dallas’ lack of ballhandling and the imbalances across its roster are impossible to ignore.

The belief, from sources I spoke to, is that the Mavs moving on from at least Davis, if not both stars, was the optimal strategy. Those moves would help maximize the 2026 first-round pick in a loaded 2026 draft class — the only selection Dallas controls the rest of this decade — to reposition the franchise around 2025 No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg.

“Absolutely,” an Eastern Conference executive said when asked whether trading the two veteran stars was the right path for Dallas.

“He’s a great player, full stop. But when you consider a player at his age with his injury history, you’d also be trading for the stress of that extension. That plays into it.”

Shaq on Nico Harrison firing: ‘Just part of the business’

But the takeaway from conversations this week is whether Dallas will be able to get the kind of offers that make trading him a no-brainer.

“There’s one thing I can say with absolute certainty,” a veteran executive said. “If Dallas decides to trade AD, they won’t get the same return the Lakers got for him.”

Bontemps: One underappreciated aspect of moving on from Davis and Irving, however, is to get Dallas out of the luxury tax.

Moving on from their two stars by the deadline would allow Dallas to potentially duck the tax, reset its timeline and acquire future picks and players to restock an older roster with youth alongside their rookie sensation.

Windhorst: The Magic have won five of the past seven games with their offense on a heater, ranking in the top 10 in the league in that window. (Although, leading scorer Paolo Banchero’s day-to-day designation after suffering a groin injury could cause a correction if the star is forced to miss extended time.)

Orlando ranked dead last in pace last season, but assistant coach Joe Prunty, hired in a front office-led staff shake-up in the offseason, was brought in to rev up those numbers. The Magic now rank in the middle of the pack in pace, and scouts report there’s significantly fewer plays being called by coach Jamahl Mosley, encouraging a quicker read-and-react system.

“Sometimes when they struggle on offense they hang their heads and slow down,” an East coach said. “I’ve seen it before — it’s a product of a team that doesn’t believe in itself offensively yet.”

Bontemps: After beating the New York Knicks on Wednesday night at Madison Square Garden, the Magic are back to .500 on the season and up to 18th in the NBA in offense. That ranking doesn’t seem all that great, but consider this absolutely unbelievable stat:

The last time the Magic didn’t finish the season as a bottom-10 offense was all the way back in 2011-12, when Dwight Howard was still playing with the Magic and Stan Van Gundy was coaching.

That infamous record was supposed to be left in the dust this season after Orlando landed Desmond Bane from the Memphis Grizzlies in a blockbuster trade this offseason. Instead, the Magic still look stuck in the mud at that end of the floor.

The ongoing offensive struggles have put a spotlight on Mosley, who has repeatedly shown an ability to craft an elite defensive unit with this squad, and Banchero, who continues to put up impressive individual numbers that have yet to translate into overall team offensive success.

“It’s got to get a little better, but the pieces aren’t changing,” a West executive said. “Bane will settle in eventually. But you still have a ball-dominant, iso star in Paolo that doesn’t scream ball movement, player movement and getting open shots.

Bontemps: Reactions to this question were all over the map, but not because of the individual merits of the two West contenders. San Antonio and Los Angeles were praised for their early season play, but while plenty of league insiders bought into the idea of the Spurs and Lakers finishing in the West’s top four, plenty of doubts centered around the elite competition standing in their way.

“Oklahoma City, Houston and Denver are really good,” a West executive said. “You only have one spot left, and you haven’t accounted for either of them, or Minnesota.”

Another West executive rattled off those six teams and added that, while they weren’t convinced the Lakers or Spurs will remain in the top four, it was clear that both had surpassed the LA Clippers and Golden State Warriors in the race to stay above the play-in line (top six) out West.

The general belief was that of the two teams, the Lakers have more staying power. The eventual return of LeBron James will only add to their chances along with the incandescent play by Doncic and Austin Reaves.

“I’d bet on the Spurs falling off,” a West scout said. “I’d be shocked if Victor plays 82 games. His body just isn’t built for that.”

Shams breaks down LeBron’s first full practice of the season

Windhorst: James nearing a return is a pretty big factor. He was second-team All-NBA last season, after all, and he has begun practicing with the Lakers’ G League team. The ceiling absolutely can be raised … maybe.

“They are bottom 10 in defensive rating and bottom 10 in net rating as I’m looking at it right now and they make the third-fewest 3s in the NBA,” one scout said. “Those are not good fundamentals.”

This, however, can be said: A team with Doncic, James and Reaves can probably beat any team on any night. It is dangerous. But can it beat anyone four times in a playoff series? Let’s wait and see, but there is reason for optimism.

Windhorst: The Clippers picked the wrong time to have the oldest roster in NBA history. The league is playing super fast in the early going. Last year, 12 teams averaged 100-plus possessions. Now, that number is 25, perhaps an outgrowth of copycats to the speedy Indiana Pacers after last season’s unexpected run to the Finals.

The NBA is trending toward speed, not just in transition but within half-court sets, too. The Clippers, dead last in pace and fast-break points, simply can’t keep up.

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