Bill ConnellyNov 14, 2025, 07:30 AM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Follow on X
Finebaum details how a 3-loss Texas could make the CFP (1:50)Paul Finebaum joins “Get Up” and discusses Texas’ path to the College Football Playoff and how many SEC teams can reach the CFP. (1:50)
We’re just close enough to the finish line of the regular season that we start to think things are locked into place. Oklahoma is the “first one out” in the College Football Playoff rankings — the Sooners are in trouble! Texas is 10th — the Longhorns are in! Five teams have one conference loss atop the ACC and American Conference; therefore, we’re guaranteed huge logjams with gross tiebreakers.
There’s still a lot of football to be played, in other words. Week 12 gives us a couple of games pitting new guard versus old guard in SEC country, plus high-leverage contests in Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Harrisonburg, Virginia. Here’s everything you need to follow on a big-as-ever mid-November Saturday.
Well, this is convenient scheduling. The SEC’s two sparkly, new, big-brand programs are both on the borderline of a possible playoff bid, and both need to come up big on the road against the programs that have basically served as the league’s final bosses for the past 16 years. The storylines sometimes write themselves.
For all of the ups and downs of this season — Arch Manning’s repeated struggles, the whiplash combination of a loss to Florida and a blowout of Oklahoma — the Longhorns are still in solid playoff shape, but they’ll need to go at least 2-1 (and maybe 3-0) against Georgia, Arkansas and Texas A&M.
With the season on the line two weeks ago against Vanderbilt, coach Steve Sarkisian took Texas’ offense back to basics in a very Sarkisian way, with lots of eye candy and quick passes to the perimeter. Manning completed 25 of 33 passes for 328 yards and 3 touchdowns — great stats for a game in which he didn’t complete a pass thrown more than 17 yards downfield.
Actually, expect a lot of short, crisp passes no matter who has the ball. That has also been Georgia’s approach this season.
A year ago, Oklahoma manhandled a two-loss Alabama team, knocking the Crimson Tide from playoff contention with a 24-3 upset. OU now heads to Tuscaloosa for just the second time ever (and first as an SEC member), cast as the two-loss team that probably can’t afford a blowout road loss.
Bama has averaged just 4.9 yards per play and a decent 23.4 points per game against SP+ top-30 defenses. Ranked third, OU’s defense is by far the best the Tide have faced, though it might not be at full strength if end R Mason Thomas and tackle Jayden Jackson, both listed as questionable, can’t go.
OU leads the nation in rushing success rate* allowed, while Bama’s run game ranks 109th. Ty Simpson and the Tide will have to succeed through the air, but the Sooners also rank ninth in passing success rate allowed. If the Tide get to even 23 points, they should be thrilled.
(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)
In 2017, Miami was second in the nation and two wins from a CFP berth. But freshman Kenny Pickett produced three touchdowns (one passing, two rushing), and unranked Pitt shocked the Hurricanes 24-14. Miami lost out from there.
In 2003, Virginia Tech, ranked fifth, visited Heinz Field, having just blown out No. 2 Miami. Rod Rutherford threw two touchdown passes (one to some guy named Larry Fitzgerald) and rushed for another, and No. 25 Pitt beat the Hokies 31-28. Tech went on to lose four of five.
After losing to Miami and Texas A&M to start the season, the Fighting Irish have won seven straight games by an average of 41-14. But aside from USC, Pitt is the best team they’ve played in this span. That’s an incredible thing to say if you watched the Panthers in September.
Pitt’s defense is uniquely aggressive. The Panthers are second nationally in yards allowed per carry, they’re seventh in pressure rate, and they force quarterbacks to make big throws that college passers often can’t make. (They could also be healthier than they’ve been in a while if linebacker Rasheem Biles and safety Cruce Brookins return as expected.) That will put a lot on the shoulders of Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr. But Carr might be OK with that.
If he were a bit more mobile, Carr’s radar chart would be a nearly perfect circle. The redshirt freshman is seventh on my QBs list and 10th in Total QBR, and the Irish are far more capable of creating big-pass plays this year because of Carr and speedy targets such as Malachi Fields and Will Pauling. Pitt might be more capable than most of bottling up surging running back Jeremiyah Love, but that doesn’t mean Carr can’t beat them.
Current line: Irish -12.5 (up from -10.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Irish by 7.2 | FPI projection: Irish by 8.1
There’s only a 19% chance that three teams reach 7-1 and a 45% chance that two do. The latter would be clean and easy, but that doesn’t appear to be something this conference believes in.
Duke is the ACC’s doom scenario. The Blue Devils went 1-3 in nonconference play with losses at Tulane and UConn — why the hell are you playing at both Tulane and UConn?? — but they’re 4-1 in the ACC, and the projected favorites in each remaining game. If they win the league, would they get into the CFP over a second Group of 5 team like a hypothetical 12-1 James Madison?
Duke’s defense has imploded in Manny Diaz’s second season, but the offense has scored at least 34 points in five of its past six games. Quarterback Darian Mensah and the Blue Devils will score Saturday. Will Virginia? Quarterback Chandler Morris left the Wake Forest loss because of a head/neck injury, but the team seems optimistic that he’ll be ready to play.
The Cavaliers’ offense has underachieved against projections by double digits in three of the past four games, though, and Morris was healthy for most of that stretch. That’s a bad sign, but if UVA can keep it close in the second half, the advantage shifts: The Hoos are 4-2 in one-score finishes, while Duke is 1-2.
Current line: Duke -4.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: Duke by 1.6 | FPI projection: Duke by 2.5
Per SP+, the Boston College offense is its worst in three years, and the Eagles’ defense is their worst since 1978. Georgia Tech has its own defensive issues, but nothing like that. Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets are coming off a bye week, in which the gutty Haynes King — maybe the hottest QB in the country this side of Julian Sayin — got a much-needed Saturday off from getting hit repeatedly.
For the past few weeks, I’ve been referencing Playoff Tiers. The three teams in Tier 1 are all but certain to reach the CFP, while five teams in Tier 2 average around an 86% chance, and each of the three in Tier 3 is around 50-50.
Tier 4, meanwhile, is the Thunderdome, with 10 or 11 teams fighting for what might be two bids at most. A large portion of Tier 4 is involved in the ACC title race, but others have work to do in Week 12.
Iowa has lost three games, including two against top-10 opponents, by 10 combined points. I appreciate that the CFP committee still ranks the Hawkeyes, even though the AP has been underrating them all season, and their much-improved run game could do serious damage against a USC defense that ranks 126th in rushing success rate allowed. The Trojans are solid against the pass, but that doesn’t really matter in an Iowa game.
When USC has the ball, it’s elite versus elite. The Trojans rank fourth in points per drive, and Iowa’s defense is seventh. The Hawkeyes have played against two top-15 offenses (per SP+) and have allowed 31 total points; USC played against two top-15 defenses and scored 55. What happens in this one?
Clemson might — might — finally be figuring out things. The Tigers have averaged 37 points per game in Cade Klubnik’s past four starts, and after getting torched by SMU and Duke, the defense showed up and shut down Florida State last week.
Clemson’s defensive front isn’t as disruptive as expected, but it might be good enough to give Louisville problems. Though running back injuries have been problematic for the Cardinals, the fact that they’ve gained zero or fewer yards on 34.0% of their snaps this year (106th nationally) is even more damaging. If quarterback Miller Moss doesn’t have time in the pocket, Louisville might be eliminated from the ACC and CFP hunts by Saturday morning.
Current line: Louisville -2.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 5.9 | FPI projection: Louisville by 1.2
Baylor’s defense has held the Bears back all season, allowing 37 points per game in four losses. But it’s coming off by far its best performance of the season in a 30-3 blowout of UCF, and it generally prevents big plays pretty well.
Of course, Utah doesn’t make big plays and still blows out teams. The Utes’ seven wins have come by an average of 36 points, and they’ve lost only to the Big 12’s two highest-ranked teams. Quarterback Devon Dampier pilots a devastatingly efficient attack, and Utah might have the best defense Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson has seen all year.
Miami handled Syracuse just fine last week, but the offense has underachieved against SP+ projections by nearly a touchdown per game since Week 3. A lack of big plays holds back the Canes, but NC State’s defense is, shall we say, quite accommodating in that regard. And with the way NC State quarterback CJ Bailey has played lately, basically every Wolfpack game has track meet potential.
We’re only starting to figure out who will get the Group of 5’s CFP bid, in other words. And though four contenders — USF, Tulane, North Texas and Sun Belt favorite James Madison — are pretty much double-digit favorites Saturday, here’s where I break out the odds again: There’s only a 45% chance they all win. Intrigue!
FAU plays at a ridiculous tempo and goes for it on fourth down whenever possible. The Owls are explosive enough to damage a Tulane defense that ranks 92nd in points per drive and has given up 80 points in the past two weeks. FAU’s defense is much worse, however. Even in a track meet, Jake Retzlaff and the Green Wave have the edge.