Zach KramCloseZach KramZach Kram is a national NBA writer for ESPN.com, specializing in short- and long-term trends across the league’s analytics landscape. He previously worked at The Ringer covering the NBA and MLB. You can follow Zach on X via @zachkram.Kevin PeltonCloseKevin PeltonESPN Senior Writer Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE systemFollow on XNov 17, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
play0:51Luka reacts to Mavs firing Nico Harrison: “I thought I would stay there forever”Luka Doncic responds to Dallas Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison being fired by his old team.
Perk gives his top NBA MVP candidates early in the season (1:31)Kendrick Perkins breaks down why Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are atop his NBA MVP rankings. (1:31)
Luka reacts to Mavs firing Nico Harrison: “I thought I would stay there forever”Luka Doncic responds to Dallas Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison being fired by his old team.
A month into the NBA season, dividing lines are beginning to take shape in both conferences. Although there is still a surprising leader in the East (the Detroit Pistons, who look like they have the defensive chops to stay in the mix), the rest of the top five teams in net rating are now the contenders we expected.
Meanwhile, a bottom tier has separated itself, with fans and executives alike dreaming of snagging a top prospect in what looks like a strong 2026 NBA draft.
Jalen Williams hasn’t played this season, while Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe have missed at least four games apiece. The Thunder have been cold from deep, making just 34% of their 3-point attempts to rank 21st in the league.
Philadelphia 76ers president Daryl Morey is responsible for the NBA’s “5% rule,” which argues that teams that exceed 5% probability of a championship should focus entirely on winning one. These are the other four teams that clear that bar using BPI — a group that hasn’t really changed since the start of the season.
The Rockets are the closest thing to a surprise, having shrugged off the loss of Fred VanVleet with the NBA’s third-best point differential thus far. Houston’s offense probably won’t keep it up, but 2024 lottery pick Reed Sheppard is quietly helping fill the void left by VanVleet’s injury, and the Rockets will add to their depth when Dorian Finney-Smith returns from offseason surgery.
November hasn’t gone as smoothly as last year for the Cavaliers. So long as Darius Garland can get healthy, Cleveland still stands with New York as the most likely East winners, given track record and full-strength potential.
The Nuggets, who took Oklahoma City to seven games in the conference semifinals last postseason, look like the biggest threat to the Thunder this season. Denver could delay a potential rematch by claiming the No. 2 seed thanks to a stronger start and better depth. The Nuggets have to be encouraged that they’re second in point differential despite newcomer Cam Johnson suffering through a shooting slump. — Pelton
Los Angeles Lakers (10-4) Minnesota Timberwolves (8-5) San Antonio Spurs (9-4) Detroit Pistons (11-2) Atlanta Hawks (9-5)
These teams have important questions they must address if they want to upset a higher-ranked opponent in the playoffs, however. Can Reaves sustain his leap when James returns, and can a lineup with Doncic, Reaves and James defend enough to win multiple playoff rounds? Lakers opponents have the fourth-best shot quality in the NBA, according to GeniusIQ, with only the lowly Kings, Nets and Pelicans faring worse.
Finally, the Hawks have gone 8-2 since Trae Young sprained his knee last month, but their current profile — seventh on defense, 19th on offense — is a mirror image of what they’ve grown accustomed to with their star point guard. Can they maintain their current defensive energy after Young returns, while improving to above-average on the offensive end? — Kram
We might as well call this the “mea culpa” tier. These teams were projected for more than 49 wins by my stats-based model, and none of them are tracking that way thus far.
The most concerning start belongs to the Clippers, who have shown their age in going 4-9. Bradley Beal is out for the year following a hip fracture that required surgery, 40-year-old Chris Paul has fallen out of the rotation and Kawhi Leonard has already dealt with an ankle injury. Clippers opponents won’t keep up 38.7% 3-point shooting, but at this point, they need to benefit from regression just to make the play-in.
As the lone Western Conference team in this middling tier, Portland doesn’t have the top-end talent to match the West teams in higher tiers, but the bottom of the conference is shaky enough that the running, pressing Trail Blazers should make the play-in tournament with ease. They’re the only team this season to beat Oklahoma City, plus they’re the only team to beat Denver in regulation.
Milwaukee, meanwhile, might be the team in this tier most likely to outperform in a playoff setting, as Giannis Antetokounmpo will enter every series as the best player until possibly the Finals. Yet even as role players such as Ryan Rollins and AJ Green have stepped up, the Bucks’ supporting cast still seems lacking, and the team’s negative point differential suggests they’re much closer to average than true contention. — Kram
Luka reacts to Mavs firing Nico Harrison: “I thought I would stay there forever”
Luka Doncic responds to Dallas Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison being fired by his old team.
Memphis Grizzlies (4-10) New Orleans Pelicans (2-11) Sacramento Kings (3-11) Phoenix Suns (8-6) Dallas Mavericks (4-10) Charlotte Hornets (4-9)
The Hornets have been more competitive than their 4-9 record would indicate, with a minus-3.3 point differential that would rank 10th in the West. Barring injuries above them, however, Charlotte will most likely head directly back to the lottery.
The best vibes in this tier, surprisingly, belong to the Suns. With Devin Booker playing at an All-NBA level and Collin Gillespie filling in well for the injured Jalen Green, Phoenix is making an early case for fit over the talent lost when Durant was traded and Bradley Beal bought out last summer. — Pelton
As the lottery demonstrated last season, when the two worst teams in the league — Utah and Washington — landed only the No. 5 and 6 picks, there’s no longer a guarantee that a terrible record will lead to a franchise-altering superstar in the draft. But in advance of a loaded 2026 draft featuring potential superstars Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa and Cameron Boozer, this quartet of teams is doing its best to increase the odds of winning a top pick.
While Utah has five wins — more than the rest of the teams in this tier combined — and is currently in contention for the West’s last play-in spot, the Jazz owe a top-eight-protected pick to Oklahoma City this season. So the Jazz will have every incentive to lose enough games the rest of the way to ensure that pick stays in Utah. — Kram
And yet, the 2024-25 champs are still on pace for a 76-6 record as they mount a title defense, with a league-best plus-15.4 point differential that’s even better than their record-setting mark last season. Oklahoma City has the NBA’s best defense by a whopping 6.6 points per 100 possessions; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is essentially replicating last season’s stat line, which won him an MVP award; and Holmgren appears to be making an offensive leap, averaging a career-best 19.3 points per game on tremendous efficiency.
The next tier of contenders includes five teams that are all very strong on one side of the ball and only middling on the other. According to Cleaning the Glass, which strips out garbage time, the Timberwolves rank fifth in offensive rating while the Lakers rank fourth in effective field goal percentage, even though LeBron James, Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves have played just 21 out of a possible 42 games. And the Pistons, Spurs and Hawks rank third, sixth and seventh in defensive rating, respectively.
For Minnesota, the questions circle the still-uneasy point guard spot and the state of the defense, which was the best in the league in 2023-24 but has fallen to the middle of the pack this season. Seven of the Timberwolves’ eight wins, moreover, have come against the worst teams in the league — Utah (twice), Sacramento (twice), Brooklyn, Charlotte and Indiana — so the Timberwolves’ hot streak might be the product of the schedule more than their true talent. (The eighth win came against Portland on opening night.)
That leaves four West teams, at least one of which will make the postseason by default. The Mavericks and Grizzlies had higher aspirations entering the year, which have been torpedoed by slow starts amid problems caused by recently fired GM Nico Harrison in Dallas and star point guard Ja Morant’s unhappiness in Memphis. Both are contenders to go the other direction and embrace a run at a high lottery pick. That’s a harder sell in Sacramento, where the excitement of the “Beam Team” returning to the playoffs in 2022-23 is becoming an increasingly distant memory.
Perk gives his top NBA MVP candidates early in the season (1:31)Kendrick Perkins breaks down why Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are atop his NBA MVP rankings. (1:31)
Kendrick Perkins breaks down why Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are atop his NBA MVP rankings. (1:31)
CloseZach KramZach Kram is a national NBA writer for ESPN.com, specializing in short- and long-term trends across the league’s analytics landscape. He previously worked at The Ringer covering the NBA and MLB. You can follow Zach on X via @zachkram.
Jump to a tier: The Favorite to Repeat Legit Title Contenders Conference Finals Party Crashers Prospective Contenders Stuck in Neutral The Muddled Middle Play-in Dreamers Barren for Darryn
Denver Nuggets (10-2) Houston Rockets (9-3) New York Knicks (8-4) Cleveland Cavaliers (9-5)