David SchoenfieldNov 17, 2025, 07:00 AM ETCloseCovers MLB for ESPN.com Former deputy editor of Page 2 Been with ESPN.com since 1995
These were bold — but realistic — predictions for the 2025 season. Let’s go back and grade each one to see how I did — and then spin it forward to next year.
The prediction: Paul Skenes doesn’t just win the Cy Young Award — he has the best season ever for a Pirates starter (in the live ball era, since 1920).
Looking ahead to 2026: It won’t be easy to top 7.7 WAR and a 1.97 ERA, but Skenes can do it. He can certainly improve upon his 187⅔ innings as the Pirates still held him back, letting him reach 100 pitches in just eight of his 31 starts. With a few more starts on four days of rest and additional innings, a 9- or 10-WAR season is possible.
Nailed it. Woo went 15-7 with a 2.94 ERA and 4.2 WAR – double the 2.1 of fellow rotation members Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo. Woo, who finished fifth in the Cy Young voting, also set an MLB record when he pitched at least six innings in each of his first 25 starts of the season. Unfortunately, he injured his pectoral muscle in his final start of the regular season, missed the ALDS and was only able to pitch out of the bullpen in the team’s ALCS loss to Toronto.
Looking ahead to 2026: The Mariners will have high hopes after finishing one win short of their first World Series appearance. With better health from Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryce Miller and another big season from Woo, the Mariners’ rotation can get back to its 2024 status as one of the best in the game.
Williams finished 12-5 with a 3.06 ERA and 3.8 WAR — easily leading the rotation in both categories.
Looking ahead to 2026: Williams certainly delivered a breakout season, riding one of the best curveballs in the game (batters hit just .116 against it). He tweaked his slider, turning it into a sweeper, and that became another effective pitch. If he can cut down on his walks — he led the majors with 83 — he can take another step forward.
Looking ahead to 2026: While Greene drove in 111 runs, he slumped to a .218 average and .694 OPS in the second half and hit just .185 overall in high-leverage situations. His speed metrics declined significantly as well. The power numbers were great, but Greene needs to get back to being a better all-around player.
Close! No outfield trio had ever done this, and while Rafaela won his first in center field and Abreu won his second in right field, Cleveland’s Steven Kwan won again in left field. Duran had led all outfielders in defensive runs saved in 2024 and had another good season in the field, but he fell off enough that Kwan won for the fourth year in a row.
Looking ahead to 2026: Enter Roman Anthony. The outstanding rookie played 71 games in 2025 and will be playing every day in 2026. The Red Sox could rotate the four outfielders through the DH role, although they have Masataka Yoshida there as well. They could play Rafaela at second base, but that’s a waste of his defense in center field. It could lead to an offseason trade.
The prediction: Juan Soto sets a club record for OPS, and Pete Alonso breaks his own club record in RBIs.
Looking ahead to 2026: Alonso is a free agent and will seek — and certainly receive — a bigger deal than the two-year, $54 million contract he signed with the Mets last offseason (that included a player opt-out). While he still seems like the right fit for the Mets, the front office might look to put money toward the pitching staff instead.
The prediction: Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte both finish in the top 10 of the MVP voting and the Diamondbacks lead the majors in runs for the second straight season.
What a frustrating year for the Diamondbacks. They did get two players in the top 10 of MVP voting and one was Carroll, but the other was shortstop Geraldo Perdomo (who led all NL position players with a 7.0 WAR). Marte had a solid 4.4-WAR season and made the All-Star team. Arizona finished sixth in runs scored (and were fourth before dealing Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez at the trade deadline).
Looking ahead to 2026: Langford played 134 games, so if he can get up to 150 and if Globe Life returns to more of a neutral park, 30/30 will be on the radar. If he can cut down on his strikeouts — 16th percentile — then we’ll see even bigger offensive numbers across the board.
Looking ahead to 2026: Tucker is a free agent — he is No. 1 in our ranking of this offseason’s top free agents. He is projected to get a big contract from some team, but probably not the Cubs. They have young outfield options such as Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara, plus Seiya Suzuki, who can DH or play right field, and need to address their rotation.
The 2006 White Sox remain safe. The only pitcher to meet both criteria was Cristopher Sanchez; Ranger Suarez (3.20 ERA, 157 innings) and Zack Wheeler (2.71 ERA, 149 innings) just missed. Jesus Luzardo pitched enough innings, but his ERA was a little high (3.92), while Aaron Nola was awful with a 6.01 ERA. The Phillies’ rotation did lead the majors in FanGraphs WAR and ranked second in ERA.
Looking ahead to 2026: The rotation is in a bit of flux. Suarez is a free agent, Wheeler will attempt to return from thoracic outlet surgery, and Nola will have to bounce back.
This looked pretty good through June 28, when Schwellenbach was 7-4 with a 3.09 ERA, 108 strikeouts and just 18 walks in 110⅔ innings. He ranked tied for seventh in the NL in FanGraphs WAR at the time, just one good start outside the top five. Unfortunately, he didn’t pitch again after being diagnosed with a small fracture in his elbow.
Looking ahead to 2026: Schwellenbach has already started a throwing program and is expected to be part of the rotation next season. With a healthy Schwellenbach, a healthy Chris Sale and an improved Spencer Strider, the rotation could be good enough to get the Braves back in the playoff picture.
The prediction: Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez and Spencer Arrighetti will win 45 games and combine for 13 WAR.
Well, two out of three isn’t bad. Brown went 12-9 with a 2.43 ERA and was a Cy Young finalist. Valdez was solid again, going 13-11 with a 3.66 ERA. Arrighetti, who had finished strong in 2024, broke his thumb in early April — he was hit by a line drive in batting practice while playing catch in the outfield. He returned in August, struggled and finished the season on the injured list with elbow inflammation. The trio combined for 26 wins and 10.0 WAR.
Looking ahead to 2026: Valdez is a free agent, so if the Astros don’t re-sign him — a likely scenario — they will be counting on Arrighetti, Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. to make more than the 28 combined starts they did in 2025. Ryan Gusto, Brandon Walter and AJ Blubaugh, all rookies in 2025, should also factor into the rotation mix.
Looking ahead to 2026: The Nationals were supposed to be building around James Wood, Dylan Crews and the two infielders, but only Wood met expectations in 2025 — and even he slumped in the second half after a big first half. Maybe a new manager, coaching staff and front office can get more out of this group.
The prediction: The Marlins quickly fall out of the race in April and trade Sandy Alcantara to the Athletics.
Well, part of that was right: The Marlins were 12-18 at the end of April and already 8.5 games out of first place. However, Alcantara, returning from Tommy John surgery, got off to a horrific start — 8.31 ERA at the end of April, 8.47 at the end of May — and was untradable, although his name did still pop up at the trade deadline.
Looking ahead to 2026: With a much better second half — a 3.33 ERA over his final 13 starts — Alcantara’s name is near the top of the offseason “most likely to be traded” list. You know who could use a starter? The Athletics!
The prediction: The White Sox lose 110 games, matching the 1962-63 Mets as the only team to lose at least 110 in consecutive seasons.
OK, fine … I also predicted the White Sox would trade Luis Robert Jr. No more trade predictions for me! Like Alcantara, Robert was so bad that his value tanked. The White Sox were also a little better than their preseason forecast, although they still finished with 102 losses.
Looking ahead to 2026: The White Sox picked up Robert’s $20 million option for 2026 — hoping he can find his 2023 level of production. But after two bad years at the plate and an inability to remain healthy, that is growing increasingly less likely.
This was an aggressive prediction, but Chourio had posted a .915 OPS in 63 second-half games in 2024. He finished 2025 with a slash line of .270/.308/.463 and a .770 OPS that was 21 points lower than his rookie season.
Looking ahead to 2026: What happened here? After his 5.2-WAR season in 2024, De La Cruz seemed ready for even bigger things. Instead, he regressed. Of interest: Perhaps looking to cut down on his strikeouts (which he did), De La Cruz’s bat speed declined from the left side and his swing length shortened. But it didn’t lead to better results.
Ahh, pitcher predictions — often doomed to fail due to injury risk. King was great through the end of April (4-1 with a 2.09 ERA) but then got injured in the middle of May, made one start in early August and then didn’t pitch again until September. He finished 5-3 with a 3.44 ERA in 15 starts.
Looking ahead to 2026: King is a free agent. Dylan Cease is a free agent. Yu Darvish is already out for the season. The Padres’ rotation is going to need a big offseason makeover.
The prediction: The Rockies will end up with two All-Stars: outfielder Brenton Doyle and reliever Victor Vodnik.
The prediction: The Cardinals stay in the NL Central race until the final week of the season — with four rookies in the rotation.
Well, technically, the Cardinals were still alive in the wild-card race entering the final week, sitting four games behind the Reds and Mets. The four rookies I mentioned — Michael McGreevy, Quinn Mathews, Tink Hence and Cooper Hjerpe — made little impact, however, with only McGreevy (16 starts) even appearing in the majors in 2025.