Is Texas out of the CFP conversation after loss to Georgia? (1:14)Heather Dinich and Paul Finebaum detail why Texas still has a path to the College Football Playoff despite three losses. (1:14)
With only three Saturdays remaining before Selection Day, the College Football Playoff field includes 19 Power 4 teams still in contention to compete for their respective conference titles ahead of the committee’s third of six rankings on Tuesday night (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Six teams (Virginia, Georgia Tech, SMU, Miami, Duke and Pitt) are still alive in the ACC race. Four teams (Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M and Ole Miss) are still eligible to reach the SEC championship game — and there are no SEC clinching scenarios in Week 13, according to ESPN Research. There also won’t be any locks in the Big 12, where Texas Tech, BYU, Cincinnati and Arizona State are all still alive.
And while the Big Ten looks like a done deal with Ohio State and Indiana creating separation, Oregon, USC and Michigan can still technically reach the Big Ten championship game, too.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they’d receive, ranked from the most to least, based on this week’s top-12 projection. Check back after Tuesday night’s ranking for an updated version that reflects the committee’s third of six rankings.
Last team in: Alabama. The loss to Oklahoma didn’t knock the Tide out in the latest projection, but it put Alabama in must-win mode and will keep them ranked behind the Sooners. The Tide have only one SEC loss and still have the best chance of any team to reach the conference championship game (71.9%), according to ESPN Analytics.
First team out: Texas. The Longhorns still have one of best remaining opportunities in the country to impress the selection committee when they face Texas A&M in the regular-season finale. If the committee drops Texas to the No. 13 spot Tuesday night just ahead of No. 14 Vandy, a playoff spot becomes a more realistic scenario. But if the committee drops the Longhorns out of the top 13, it could need more than a win against the Aggies to secure an at-large bid.
Still in the mix: Vanderbilt. Vandy could still be stuck behind Texas because of its loss to the Longhorns, so the Commodores will need to beat both Kentucky and Tennessee and get some help to have a shot.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee
Still in the mix: Michigan. The Wolverines avoided elimination Saturday with a narrow 24-22 win at Northwestern. They still have a chance to beat the committee’s No. 1 team in rival Ohio State, and nobody in the country would have a better win if that happens. If Michigan can run the table, it would have one of the best two-loss résumés in the country but would be ranked behind USC unless the Trojans lose again. The Week 2 loss to Oklahoma looks better now that the Sooners are a top-10 team.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Utah. According to ESPN Analytics, Utah still has an 11.9% chance to reach the Big 12 championship, followed by ASU (8.4%) and Cincinnati (1.9%).
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
First team out: Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets beat a 1-10 Boston College team by two points in spite of themselves and are a win away from a guaranteed appearance in the ACC championship game. They’ve also got a chance to earn a top-five win in the regular-season finale against Georgia. If Georgia Tech doesn’t beat Georgia, it would need to win the ACC to reach the playoff because a three-loss ACC runner-up is out.
Still in the mix: Duke, Pitt, SMU, Virginia. Virginia has the best chance to reach the ACC title game (77.7%); SMU is third (38%), followed by Duke (11%), Miami and Pitt (7%).
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Still in the mix: James Madison, North Texas, Tulane. Of these teams, JMU has the best strength of record (No. 24) and game control (No. 40) ranks, but the worst strength of schedule (No. 119). Tulane might have the best combination of all of them, as the Green Wave is No. 25 in strength of record and No. 71 in strength of schedule. Their best wins are against Northwestern, Duke and Memphis, but none are CFP top-25 wins.
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
The bubble watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of how they operate. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the latest top 12 projection. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do and may need help. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are within arm’s reach of a first-round bye and have the best chance of winning the Big 12 (69.5%), according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech has a bye this week, but can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game if both Cincinnati and Arizona State lose. The Oct. 18 loss to Arizona State won’t keep Texas Tech out of the CFP if it finishes as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up, given how highly the committee has regarded Texas Tech to this point. The Red Raiders end the regular season at 4-7 West Virginia.
First team out: BYU. The Cougars put it all together during Saturday’s dominant win against TCU, but our projection says they’d still be excluded from the playoff today in order to make room for one of the five highest ranked conference champions. BYU still has the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (80.2%) behind Texas Tech (97.5%). They can clinch a spot with a win Saturday against Cincinnati and losses by both Arizona State and Houston. If BYU wins the league, it’s a CFP lock. If BYU loses, though, it would depend on how close the game is. The selection committee is unlikely to reward BYU with an at-large bid if it plays as poorly as it did against Texas Tech during the regular season.
Last team in: Miami. The Canes are listed here because they are the selection committee’s highest-ranked ACC team and are still mathematically eligible to reach the conference championship game. Until the participants of that game are clear, the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team will continue to appear in the projections because with six teams still in contention, the most fair representative is the committee’s. Still, Miami’s best chance at reaching the CFP right now is through an at-large bid because the Canes only have a 7.1% chance to reach the ACC title game. Georgia Tech can clinch a spot in the game with a win against Pitt on Saturday, and Virginia can clinch with losses by Duke, Pitt and SMU.
Is Texas out of the CFP conversation after loss to Georgia? (1:14)Heather Dinich and Paul Finebaum detail why Texas still has a path to the College Football Playoff despite three losses. (1:14)
Heather Dinich and Paul Finebaum detail why Texas still has a path to the College Football Playoff despite three losses. (1:14)
So there’s still plenty of hope on the bubble after Week 12.
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Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Based on this week’s projection, the seeding would be:
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ) No. 2 Indiana No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ) No. 4 Georgia