Men's Bracketology: Arizona sees big boost, plus a new No. 1 overall seed

By Joe Lunardi Updated: 11/18/2025 at 8:00 a.m. ETWelcome to the 2025-26 season! We’ll have updated Bracketology projections every Tuesday through the end of the calendar year, with twice-weekly updates beginning in early January.

On the BubbleLast Four Byes Creighton Iowa Virginia Saint Mary’sLast Four In Clemson Cincinnati Utah State GeorgetownFirst Four Out Georgia Marquette Nebraska OklahomaNext Four Out SMU Miami Kansas St. Oklahoma St.

SOUTH (HOUSTON)Oklahoma City1 Houston16 Portland St.8 Oregon9 TexasPhiladelphia5 North Carolina12 Liberty4 St. John’s13 McNeeseSt. Louis6 Kansas11 Clemson/ Georgia3 Illinois14 Little RockTampa7 Ohio State10 Saint Mary’s2 Florida15 Furman

WEST (SAN JOSE)Philadelphia1 UConn16 Vermont8 Baylor9 IndianaPortland5 UCLA12 High Point4 Gonzaga13 TroyPortland6 Wisconsin11 VCU3 BYU14 Utah ValleyGreenville7 Creighton10 Mississippi St.2 Kentucky15 St. Thomas

MIDWEST (CHICAGO)St. Louis1 Purdue16 Long Island Norfolk St./8 San Diego St.9 Ole MissOklahoma City5 Texas Tech12 Yale4 Tennessee13 Northern IowaBuffalo6 Arkansas11 Cincinnati Utah State/3 Louisville14 TowsonSan Diego7 Vanderbilt10 Virginia2 Arizona15 Eastern Kentucky

Last Four Byes Creighton Iowa Virginia Saint Mary’s

Last Four In Clemson Cincinnati Utah State Georgetown

Welcome to the 2025-26 season! We’ll have updated Bracketology projections every Tuesday through the end of the calendar year, with twice-weekly updates beginning in early January.

By Joe Lunardi Updated: 11/18/2025 at 8:00 a.m. ETWelcome to the 2025-26 season! We’ll have updated Bracketology projections every Tuesday through the end of the calendar year, with twice-weekly updates beginning in early January.

Last Four Byes Creighton Iowa Virginia Saint Mary’sLast Four In Clemson Cincinnati Utah State GeorgetownFirst Four Out Georgia Marquette Nebraska OklahomaNext Four Out SMU Miami Kansas St. Oklahoma St.

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

Top Overall SeedPurdueFirst Team OutMississippi StateLast Team InUtah State

EAST (WASHINGTON D.C.)Greenville1 Duke16 Navy Southern/8 Missouri9 USCSan Diego5 Michigan St.12 Akron4 Iowa State13 UC Santa BarbaraTampa6 N.C. State11 Memphis3 Alabama14 SienaBuffalo7 Auburn10 Iowa2 Michigan15 Youngstown St.

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

68-Team Bracket11Clemson11Georgia16Navy16Southern16Long Island16Norfolk St.11Cincinnati11Utah StateSOUTH (HOUSTON)Oklahoma City1 Houston16 Portland St.8 Oregon9 TexasPhiladelphia5 North Carolina12 Liberty4 St. John’s13 McNeeseSt. Louis6 Kansas11 Clemson/ Georgia3 Illinois14 Little RockTampa7 Ohio State10 Saint Mary’s2 Florida15 FurmanWEST (SAN JOSE)Philadelphia1 UConn16 Vermont8 Baylor9 IndianaPortland5 UCLA12 High Point4 Gonzaga13 TroyPortland6 Wisconsin11 VCU3 BYU14 Utah ValleyGreenville7 Creighton10 Mississippi St.2 Kentucky15 St. ThomasEAST (WASHINGTON D.C.)Greenville1 Duke16 Navy Southern/8 Missouri9 USCSan Diego5 Michigan St.12 Akron4 Iowa State13 UC Santa BarbaraTampa6 N.C. State11 Memphis3 Alabama14 SienaBuffalo7 Auburn10 Iowa2 Michigan15 Youngstown St.MIDWEST (CHICAGO)St. Louis1 Purdue16 Long Island Norfolk St./8 San Diego St.9 Ole MissOklahoma City5 Texas Tech12 Yale4 Tennessee13 Northern IowaBuffalo6 Arkansas11 Cincinnati Utah State/3 Louisville14 TowsonSan Diego7 Vanderbilt10 Virginia2 Arizona15 Eastern Kentucky

11Clemson11Georgia16Navy16Southern16Long Island16Norfolk St.11Cincinnati11Utah State

Bracket WatchTop Overall SeedPurdueFirst Team OutMississippi StateLast Team InUtah StateIn the age of expanded power conferences, a team’s NCAA tournament fate boils down to stacking high-quality wins: Fill your team sheet with Quad 1 wins, and a bid is all but assured. The Arizona Wildcats have an early lead in the “best résumé” category thanks to a pair of Quad 1 victories over Florida and UCLA, both on the road and both of whom should remain in the upper half of Quad 1 — an increasingly important factor in determining seeding. Arizona opened the season as a projected 4-seed, and has quickly risen be on the precipice of a 1-seed, ranking fifth in the overall field. The only other team with multiple Quad 1 wins so far is Georgetown, which won at Maryland before knocking off Clemson at home. At the other end of the spectrum, Oklahoma has lost a pair of Quad 1 contests at Gonzaga and to Nebraska, but those aren’t fatal if the Sooners can course correct.

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In the age of expanded power conferences, a team’s NCAA tournament fate boils down to stacking high-quality wins: Fill your team sheet with Quad 1 wins, and a bid is all but assured. The Arizona Wildcats have an early lead in the “best résumé” category thanks to a pair of Quad 1 victories over Florida and UCLA, both on the road and both of whom should remain in the upper half of Quad 1 — an increasingly important factor in determining seeding. Arizona opened the season as a projected 4-seed, and has quickly risen be on the precipice of a 1-seed, ranking fifth in the overall field. The only other team with multiple Quad 1 wins so far is Georgetown, which won at Maryland before knocking off Clemson at home. At the other end of the spectrum, Oklahoma has lost a pair of Quad 1 contests at Gonzaga and to Nebraska, but those aren’t fatal if the Sooners can course correct.

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