Texas A&M completes largest comeback in school history to stun South Carolina (2:07)Trailing 30-3 in the first half, Texas A&M scores 28 unanswered points to complete the largest comeback in school history. (2:07)
The College Football Playoff selection committee’s third ranking is guaranteed to look different Tuesday night after Oklahoma’s win at Alabama, but how different depends on … Notre Dame.
The biggest question facing the group this week is how the two-loss teams will stack up, and assuming the committee rewards Oklahoma’s head-to-head win against the Tide, the duo will likely be a package deal — either above Notre Dame, or below. Have the Irish done enough to remain the committee’s top two-loss team? Or will the Sooners’ statement win push Notre Dame down, even after the Irish won at Pitt?
Here’s a prediction of what the selection committee will do when it reveals its third of six rankings Tuesday night (8:30 ET, ESPN).
Why they could be lower: It would be hard for the committee to justify dropping the Buckeyes after Ohio State and Indiana overwhelmed similar unranked opponents. One of the Buckeyes’ few weaknesses, though, is the lowest strength of schedule (No. 42) of the committee’s top-four teams.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Wolverines kept their CFP hopes alive Saturday by avoiding an upset to Northwestern, and a win against the committee’s No. 1 team would catapult them into contention. It’s the only CFP top-25 team left on Ohio State’s regular-season schedule. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they could be higher: With the committee’s top three all winning — and Ohio State and Indiana playing sub-.500 teams — it’s hard to imagine the committee changing the order Tuesday.
Need to know: Indiana still hasn’t clinched a spot in the Big Ten title game. Even with its win against Wisconsin, the Hoosiers also needed Week 12 losses by Michigan, Oregon and USC.
Toughest remaining game: The Hoosiers have only one left: Nov. 28 at Purdue. It’s on a Friday night against an in-state rival, and Indiana has at least a 96% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely the Aggies move up after needing a 28-point second-half to beat South Carolina by one point — especially a week after the committee kept the status quo when the Aggies went on the road and beat then-No. 22 Mizzou.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. It’s the only ranked opponent remaining on the Aggies’ schedule.
Why they could be lower: It would be difficult for the committee to justify dropping Georgia after a dominant win against the committee’s No. 10 team when Texas Tech’s win came against a 4-6 UCF team.
Need to know: Georgia has not clinched a spot in the SEC title game yet. It needed a win AND a Texas A&M loss, but the Aggies had the biggest comeback in school history to beat South Carolina.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Georgia Tech. The one-loss Yellow Jackets pushed their in-state rival to eight overtimes last year, and continue to find ways to win this season, even if it’s not pretty.
Why they could be lower: It would be surprising to see the Red Raiders fall behind Ole Miss after the Rebels struggled for the bulk of four quarters against Florida. The committee made it clear last week that it thought Texas Tech was the better team, and nothing Ole Miss did against a now 3-7 Florida team is likely to change that.
Need to know: Texas Tech, which lost at Arizona State on Oct. 18, still hasn’t clinched a spot in the Big 12 title game. It also needed losses by Arizona State, Cincinnati and Utah.
Toughest remaining game: There’s only one left: Nov. 29 at West Virginia. It’s on the road at a difficult venue, but the Red Raiders have a bye week to prepare and a 90% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.
Why they could be here: The Rebels are likely to get bumped up one spot because Alabama dropped — not because they beat Florida. The selection committee moved Texas Tech ahead of Ole Miss last week in part because of a better résumé, as the Red Raiders had two top-25 wins (BYU and Utah), and Ole Miss has one (Oklahoma). That win against the Sooners, though, looks even better after OU’s win at Alabama.
Why they could be higher: Though the committee has shown more respect for the Red Raiders’ wins, it could consider whom they lost to — and Ole Miss would win that debate. The Rebels’ lone loss was Oct. 18 at Georgia, which is a better defeat than Texas Tech’s to Arizona State (7-3). It looks even better after the Bulldogs beat Texas, and Georgia is likely to move up a spot, making the Rebels’ lone defeat a road loss to a top-four team.
Need to know: Ole Miss has only two road wins — Sept. 6 at Kentucky and Oct. 25 at Oklahoma. With the No. 34 schedule strength entering this week and just one CFP top-25 win, a second loss could be more damaging to the Rebels’ playoff hopes than it might appear.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State. The Rebels have only one remaining game and get a bye week to prepare for it.
Why they could be higher: Oregon and Ole Miss are similar when it comes to their résumés, and there probably wasn’t enough evidence to flip them this week, with both teams beating unranked opponents. The committee has had Ole Miss ranked higher in each of the first two rankings.
Need to know: The most likely Big Ten title game matchup remains Indiana and Ohio State, but nobody has technically clinched it yet.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 vs. USC. The Trojans are 8-2 with one Big Ten loss, and a win at Oregon would flip the script in the league’s playoff pecking order.
Why they could be lower: The committee’s evaluation of these teams is based on their résumés and what the members see on film, and they have been wowed by Notre Dame’s defense and its running game. If what they see on film from Notre Dame — including in Saturday’s win at Pitt — outweighs the Sooners’ résumé, the Irish will remain their top two-loss team.
Need to know: After Saturday’s win, Oklahoma’s chances of reaching the playoff jumped to 52.3%, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
Why they could be lower: Of the two-loss teams, Notre Dame might have the best defeats — to Miami and Texas A&M — by a combined four points. The committee has been impressed by what it has seen on film from the Irish during an eight-game winning streak.
Need to know: This was the Tide’s first conference loss, which means it can still reach the SEC championship game and clinch a spot in the playoff as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. If they lose the regular-season finale to rival Auburn, though, the three-loss Tide would drop out of the playoff race, with two bad defeats to sub-.500 opponents.
Why they could be higher: If Notre Dame remains the committee’s top two-loss team, it’s because the members value what they’re seeing on film more than schedule strength. Notre Dame entered Saturday trailing Oklahoma and Alabama in strength of record and strength of schedule. That gap is expected to widen after the Sooners’ win.
Need to know: Even if the Panthers fall out of the committee’s top 25 on Tuesday, the group will still respect this win. It was on the road, in convincing fashion and against a team still in contention for the ACC title.
Toughest remaining game: Notre Dame ends the season against Syracuse and Stanford, two teams that have combined for a 6-14 record. Because the game against Stanford is on the road, it will be slightly more difficult, but the Irish have at least a 94% chance to win each game, according to ESPN Analytics.
Why they could be lower: Utah is a safety net for BYU because of the head-to-head, so if the Cougars were any lower, it would be because the committee kept three-loss Texas in the mix.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, BYU would still be bumped out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the ACC champion, which is still projected to be ranked outside of the committee’s top 12 but guaranteed a spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 at Cincinnati. Considering Utah already defeated Cincy 45-14, BYU will be expected to win in similar fashion, but the Bearcats will be looking to bounce back from back-to-back losses.
Why they could be lower: There could be committee members who still believe Texas is better, even with three losses. It wouldn’t be the first time a three-loss SEC team was ranked ahead of two-loss teams. Last year, three-loss Alabama was No. 11 ahead of two-loss Miami and two-loss BYU.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Kansas. The only difference between this five-loss team and five-loss K-State is that it’s on the road.
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes have already won over the room, and nothing happened Saturday in a lopsided win against UCLA that would alter that perception. Former CFP selection committee chair Mack Rhoades said Tuesday that there has been a “really clear consensus in the room” that Ohio State is the No. 1 team in the country. “Really good defensively, particularly up front,” Rhoades said. “Their offensive line play is outstanding. They have the great playmakers in Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The quarterback [Julian] Sayin right now leads the country in passing efficiency and completion percentage.” Ohio State entered Saturday ranked in the top three in offensive and defensive efficiencies.
Why they could be here: Though Ohio State has separated itself at the top, there shouldn’t be much debate this week between the Hoosiers and No. 3 Texas A&M. Indiana again asserted itself against a weaker opponent in Wisconsin, while the Aggies needed an epic comeback to survive three-win South Carolina. Indiana entered Week 12 leading the nation in total efficiency, and No. 2 in ESPN’s strength of record metric and game control. Over the past few weeks, Indiana’s defense has earned the committee’s respect and is one of the reasons the Hoosiers have been ranked ahead of the Aggies. “We give Indiana certainly the edge — offensively, they’re the top-scoring offense in the country,” Rhoades said. “Their defense is ranked second.”