What is the Lakers’ ceiling with LeBron? Stephen A. weighs in (1:48)Stephen A. Smith explains why the conference finals are the ceiling for the Lakers this season with LeBron James back. (1:48)
The NBA trade deadline is nearly three months away, but it’s never too early to diagnose what contending teams need most and what their front offices can pull off between now and Feb. 5.
Our NBA insiders are examining what eight playoff contenders across the league are lacking, what restrictions they face when considering their trade options and what could come next as each settles into the 2025-26 campaign.
Adding Jimmy Butler III helped the Warriors succeed with Stephen Curry on the bench. Creating offense when both Butler and Curry are out remains a challenge for Golden State, which went 1-2 in the three games Curry missed because of illness, one of which Butler also sat out.
Given their ages and track records, Butler and Curry will inevitably sit out longer stretches, requiring the Warriors to find more playmaking. Ideally, Brandin Podziemski would step into that role, but his usage rate is actually down from last season with Butler’s arrival. Podziemski averaged only 11.7 points with Curry out, though he nearly had a triple-double when Butler was sidelined.
Jonathan Kuminga, meanwhile, scored 24 points in a loss at the Sacramento Kings but had just 11 on 4-of-19 shooting in the next two games. That kind of inconsistent performance has made it hard for Golden State to rely on him. — Kevin Pelton
The fifth-year wing generated legitimate bites from only the Kings and Phoenix Suns in restricted free agency, but the Warriors didn’t like what either offered in sign-and-trade packages. As situations change and Dunleavy is freed from the base year compensation issue, can he find an organization willing to give the type of return for Kuminga that owner Joe Lacob would require to green light? Will there be a player in a trade who will move the needle enough? — Anthony Slater
The Magic went all-in this offseason, which included signing star Paolo Banchero to a five-year extension that begins next season. The moves have left Orlando with 2032 as its lone tradable first-round pick in the next seven years — the franchise does have eight second-rounders to use in potential deals — and in a precarious financial position.
The Magic got off to a slow start, but Bane’s buzzer-beater to down the Portland Trail Blazers on Nov. 10 sparked a three-game win streak. Even before Banchero sat out three straight games because of a groin injury, the Orlando front office was looking to see how the Magic would play with Bane while also ramping up Suggs after arthroscopic knee surgery in March.
In theory, Yabusele should be able to function as the extra big New York needs behind Robinson and Towns. In practice, the celebrated free agent signing hasn’t lived up to expectations in New York, averaging just 2.6 points in 10.2 minutes. — Kram
The Knicks are in a similar position as last November: top-heavy in contracts with no first-round picks to trade and the uncertain future of Robinson. New York has 84% of its salary cap tied up in contracts for Towns, OG Anunoby, Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart. They are also $148,358 below the second apron and are not allowed to take on salary in a trade.
Unsurprisingly, with Damian Lillard gone and new Buck Myles Turner more of an all-around contributor, Milwaukee is in dire need of secondary scoring and playmaking beyond Giannis Antetokounmpo. This was true even before the two-time MVP left Monday’s game because of a groin injury.
According to Cleaning the Glass, the Bucks have a 125.2 offensive rating with Antetokounmpo on the court, which ranks in the 95th percentile of all lineups leaguewide. When Antetokounmpo sits, their offensive rating falls to 104.2, which ranks in the 4th percentile.
With Antetokounmpo sidelined for up to two weeks, this need is even more pressing. The Bucks are just a game over .500 with a negative point differential, and their situation could get ugly in a hurry if they’re stuck with their current no-Giannis offense for all 48 minutes of games. — Kram
Then, Milwaukee should have a better assessment of how dire their guard needs are and whether they will package together one of their few remaining assets to find an upgrade. — Jamal Collier
Getting James back in the lineup Tuesday should help, given he has shot 39% from 3 the past two seasons. And Dalton Knecht and Jake LaRavia should improve on their 32.6% and 34.0% shooting, respectively. Still, the Lakers could stand to upgrade on the minutes they’re giving to defensive specialists Marcus Smart and Jarred Vanderbilt, who are both under 30% from beyond the arc. An ace shooter who can hold his own defensively would help the Lakers contend this season. — Pelton
The Spurs have shot 3s at an average rate this season but still rank 17th in attempts and 18th in makes from beyond the arc. San Antonio has a variety of players who can capably space the court for Victor Wembanyama and playmakers Stephon Castle, De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper, but no feared shooter opponents are unwilling to leave on defense.
So far this season, only three teams have faced zone defense on more possessions than the Spurs, according to GeniusIQ tracking. — Pelton
Trading four first-round picks to acquire Fox should remove San Antonio from trade conversations. But with six first-round picks in the next seven years (two that can be traded), control of Atlanta’s first-rounder in the next two years (a swap in 2026 and unprotected in 2027), three future pick swaps and 15 second-rounders, San Antonio has the draft capital to upgrade again. The Spurs also have $40 million in expiring contracts, including former first-round pick Jeremy Sochan. — Marks
Point guard. The team demoted 38-year-old Mike Conley from the starting lineup and opted for more of a committee approach to the position. Anthony Edwards leads the team in touches, Julius Randle leads in assists, Conley creates in his 20 minutes per game off the bench and Donte DiVincenzo helps as well.
One player who’s notably not on that list is Rob Dillingham, ostensibly the Timberwolves’ point guard of the future, after they traded a 2030 pick swap and an unprotected 2031 first-rounder to acquire Dillingham in the 2024 draft. But Dillingham hasn’t gained coach Chris Finch’s trust yet: He has reached 20 minutes and 10 points only once this season — in blowout wins against the Nets and Kings, respectively. — Kram
As befits a team succeeding with a physical, throwback style, the Pistons are also taking an old-school approach to the 3-point line, ranking 27th in makes, 28th in attempts and 20th in percentage. Of the four Pistons who made more than 1.2 3-pointers per game last season, Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. are no longer on the team, and Jaden Ivey hasn’t played yet this season because of knee surgery; only Cade Cunningham is still here and healthy. New addition Duncan Robinson has been a valuable long-range replacement, making 3.1 3s per game on 41.8% shooting, and two-way guard Daniss Jenkins has emerged as a meaningful contributor. But the Pistons could still use another reliable shooter to stretch playoff defenses that target Cunningham and Jalen Duren down low. — Zach Kram
No East playoff team is better positioned than the Pistons. For the first time since November 2020, the Pistons control their own first-round pick in each of the next seven years, are allowed to trade up to four of them and can swap in each year. Detroit also has 14 second-rounders to use in deals. Financially, the Pistons are $26.2 million below the salary cap’s first apron and can be aggressive in taking back considerable salary and contracts. Detroit has the $26.3 million expiring contract of Tobias Harris and short-term salaries of Robinson ($16.8 million), Isaiah Stewart ($15 million) and Caris LeVert ($14.1 million). — Bobby Marks
Last February, GM Mike Dunleavy Jr. was able to put together a package of contract and draft assets to acquire Butler. Despite sending their 2025 first-rounder to Miami, the Warriors still have access to four first-round picks to trade. The Kuminga signing at the onset of training camp gives Golden State a valuable $22.5 million trade option, and Kuminga is trade-eligible starting on Jan. 15. Because they are hard-capped at the second apron, Golden State is not allowed to take back more salary sent out in a trade. Besides Kuminga, the Warriors have $23 million in salary consisting of guards Moses Moody ($11.6 million), Buddy Hield ($9.2 million) and Podziemski ($3.7 million). They have only one second-round pick available. — Marks
Despite trading for Desmond Bane and signing Tyus Jones to remake their backcourt, the Magic remain heavily dependent on the health of starting point guard Jalen Suggs. Orlando has been as good as the team hoped with Suggs on the court, outscoring opponents by 17.2 points per 100 possessions. That sinks to minus-6.2 when Suggs sits, per NBA Advanced Stats. Jones has struggled to adapt to the Magic. He’s shooting an abysmal 0.3-of-1.4 (19.0%) on 3s and is handing out a career-low 4.3 assists per 36 minutes. That’s particularly problematic because playing the 6-foot-1 Jones compromises Orlando’s strength on defense. Anthony Black has supplanted Jones’ minutes but doesn’t supply the kind of playmaking the Magic hoped to get from their backup point guard. — Pelton
The Jones signing and first year of extensions kicking in for Suggs and Franz Wagner have left Orlando $1.2 million below the first apron hard cap. They are not allowed to exceed that threshold in any trade. With Wagner, Suggs and Bane each making more than $35 million, Orlando has 11 players earning between $1.3 to $15 million, including Jones, who is a free agent in July and is averaging a career-low 12.9 minutes. One area of concern with a trade is the Magic’s willingness to take back salary stretched into future seasons, including the non-guaranteed $14.5 million salary of Jonathan Isaac. Orlando is a projected second-apron team in 2026-27. — Marks