Mike ClayNov 20, 2025, 07:56 AM ETCloseMike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on “Fantasy Football Now” and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.Follow on X
Why Mike Clay says to add Ricky Pearsall if you can (1:27)Mike Clay explains why he likes 49ers receiver Ricky Pearsall despite his poor performance against the Cardinals in Week 11. (1:27)
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
BUF-HOU | PIT-CHI | NE-CIN | NYG-DET | MIN-GB | SEA-TEN | IND-KC NYJ-BAL | CLE-LV | JAX-ARI | PHI-DAL | ATL-NO | TB-LAR | CAR-SF
Additionally, Houston has allowed the fewest fantasy points, fourth-fewest pass yards, sixth-fewest pass TDs (10), second-lowest completion rate (58%), second-lowest yards per attempt (6.1) and zero rushing TDs to quarterbacks. No quarterback has reached 20 fantasy points against the Texans and only three have hit 14. Allen is a mid-range QB1 play with the potential for a dud.
Shadow Report: Downgrade Buffalo’s wide receivers against a Houston defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to receivers, including the third-fewest to the perimeter. The Texans have held receivers to the lowest catch rate (53%) and third-lowest yards per target (6.7), and only three receivers have even reached 13 points against them. Khalil Shakir is the only Buffalo receiver worth considering for your WR3/flex slot, and his ceiling is limited in this matchup.
If Warren plays, Gainwell belongs on benches. If Warren is sidelined, Gainwell will defer some carries to Kaleb Johnson but will be well positioned for 15-plus touches against a Chicago defense that sits midpack in fantasy points allowed to RBs, yet has allowed 5.0 yards per carry (fourth highest) to the position. In that scenario, Gainwell will be a solid RB2 option.
Shadow Report: Upgrade Pittsburgh’s receivers against a Chicago pass defense that has surrendered the second-most touchdowns (14), fourth-highest yards per target (9.2) and ninth-most fantasy points to receivers. Chicago is actually coming off a solid effort against Minnesota’s receivers but still sits top 10 in points allowed to both the perimeter and slot over the past four weeks.
Metcalf has struggled this season while often dealing with shadow coverage and/or tough matchups, but he has managed three 16-plus-point fantasy outings and he matched a season high with nine targets last week (four from Mason Rudolph). Set for perhaps his easiest matchup of the season to date, Metcalf is in the WR2/3 mix, even with Aaron Rodgers possibly sidelined.
Fantasy scoop: Henderson is red hot, having followed up Week 10’s 150-yard, two-TD, 28.0-fantasy-point effort with a 93-yard, three-TD, 32.3-point explosion in Week 11. Henderson’s recent surge has, of course, been fueled by Rhamondre Stevenson’s absence, but it’s fair to wonder if his strong play, which includes 87-plus yards in all three games, will lead to a much larger role moving forward.
If Stevenson remains sidelined, Henderson is a lineup lock. Even if Stevenson returns, both backs are viable RB2 options against a horrific Bengals run defense that has allowed the most rushing yards, scrimmage yards, touchdowns (15) and fantasy points to running backs. The Bengals are allowing 185.6 yards, 1.5 touchdowns and 34.1 fantasy points per game to RBs. An almost-unbelievable 13 backs have already scored 15-plus fantasy points against them this season.
We don’t want to get too carried away here, as Wright has produced double-digit fantasy points in just six of 71 career games, but he’s also never been asked to play such a substantial offensive role. Wright isn’t a must add, but he’s very much in the TE2 mix in a much better matchup this week. The Giants sit top 12 in passing yards and TDs allowed.
Fantasy scoop: Calvin Ridley (fibula) is done for the season, which solidifies Elic Ayomanor, Chimere Dike and Van Jefferson as the Titans’ top receivers moving forward. Ridley had played only seven snaps during Tennessee’s past six games due to injury, with the team’s WR usage as follows: Ayomanor (244 snaps, 30 targets), Jefferson (228 snaps, 28 targets), Dike (174 snaps, 20 targets) and all others combined (97 snaps, 10 targets).
Dike, whose numbers are deflated a bit after he left Sunday’s game injured, paces the group with 9.4 fantasy PPG during the stretch, with Ayomanor (6.1) and Jefferson (7.1) also not particularly productive. Dike did flash with a pair of 16-plus-point games during Weeks 7 and 8, so there’s some hope for him as a deep-league flex, but he’ll be tough to trust in an offense that has scored a horrific 11 touchdowns in 10 games.
On the other hand, Colts receivers will have their hands full this week against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to receivers and only nine passing TDs on the season. Only three receivers have hit 14.5 fantasy points against them and two were in Week 1. The Colts’ elite offense and four teams on a bye is enough to keep Pierce, Pittman and Josh Downs on the fantasy radar this week, but the bust risk is higher than usual.
Shadow Report: Upgrade Baltimore’s receivers against the Sauce Gardner-less Jets pass defense. Secondary receivers had already fared well against New York prior to Gardner’s departure, and now we are starting to see No. 1 receivers perform at a higher level. That includes Jerry Jeudy’s 19.8 points in Week 10 and Stefon Diggs’ 19.5 points last week. Flowers is the primary benefactor, and Rashod Bateman (if back from injury) is a noteworthy deep sleeper.
Fantasy scoop: Is the Bhayshul Tuten emergence finally upon us? It sure seemed like it during Week 11’s dominant win over the Chargers. Prior to Tuten’s departure early in the fourth quarter with an injury, Jacksonville’s RB usage was as follows: Tuten (22 snaps, 15 carries for 74 yards and one TD), Etienne (25 snaps, 12 carries for 47 yards and one TD) and LeQuint Allen Jr. (four snaps, zero carries).
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, George Pickens, Dallas Goedert, Jake Ferguson
Fantasy scoop: The Atlanta offense is headed for a shakeup with both Michael Penix Jr. (IR) and Drake London sidelined this week. Coincidentally, we got a look at this setup in Week 8 when both were out against Miami. In that game — a 34-10 loss — Kirk Cousins struggled to 173 yards and zero TDs on 31 pass attempts, Robinson was held to 48 yards on 12 touches (Tyler Allgeier scored the team’s only touchdown) and no wide receiver cleared 31 yards.
Third, we’ve seen this before, as Tucker exploded for 192 yards and two scores on 17 touches in Week 6 of last season prior to totaling 39 touches, 204 yards and one TD over the final 12 games of the season. Finally, even if Irving remains out this week, Tucker will have a much stiffer challenge against a Rams defense that has allowed just three touchdowns and the third-fewest fantasy points to RBs this season.
Perhaps the Bucs shock the NFL world and make Tucker their clear lead back Rico Dowdle-style, but that seems unlikely with Irving and Rachaad White in the mix. Tucker should remain on benches unless Irving remains out. In the latter scenario, he’ll be on the RB2/flex radar.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
Shadow Report: Collins can expect Christian Benford shadow coverage this week. Benford has traveled with Garrett Wilson (9.0 fantasy points in the game), Tyreek Hill (15.9), Chris Olave (11.0), Drake London (31.8), Tetairoa McMillan (16.9), Travis Kelce (10.6) and Emeka Egbuka (9.0) on their perimeter routes this season. The six wide receivers averaged 15.6 fantasy points, with half of them reaching 15.9. We haven’t been afraid of this matchup all season and won’t be here in Week 12. Collins can be started with confidence.
Fantasy scoop: Warren departed Sunday’s win after only 18 snaps due to injury, and Kenneth Gainwell took advantage. The 2021 fifth-round pick didn’t do much on the ground (24 yards on nine carries) but posted a 7-81-2 receiving line on seven targets. Gainwell has played 60% or more of the snaps in two games this season (both due to Warren injuries) and he scored 29-plus fantasy points in each outing. Of course, he’s failed to score double-digit fantasy points in any other game, so his Week 12 outlook will depend on Warren’s health.
Shadow Report: With Ja’Marr Chase suspended for this game, expect Higgins to draw shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez. New England’s top corner shadowed Jerry Jeudy, Drake London and Emeka Egbuka over the past month. Gonzalez held Jeudy without a single catch, did well when aligned on London (London still scored 38.8 points in the game, but nearly all was against other defenders) and wasn’t as good against Egbuka (23.5 fantasy points scored in the game). Unlike London and Egbuka, Higgins doesn’t move into the slot very often (12% to be exact) and thus will see Gonzalez on nearly all of his routes. Higgins figures to see more targets with Chase out, but that may be offset a bit by this matchup.