Which 16 teams will make the playoffs? Projections for all 32 at the quarter mark

play0:56Matthew Schaefer makes NHL history with OT winner for IslandersMatthew Schaefer becomes the youngest player in NHL history to score an overtime goal in the regular season.

play0:40Gabriel Vilardi wins it for the Jets in a shootoutGabriel Vilardi wins it for the Jets in a shootout

play0:32Macklin Celebrini’s hat trick wins it for Sharks in OTMacklin Celebrini scores on the power play for San Jose Sharks

Connor Bedard nets hat trick for Blackhawks (1:18)Connor Bedard scores three goals for Chicago on Tuesday night against Calgary. (1:18)

Matthew Schaefer makes NHL history with OT winner for IslandersMatthew Schaefer becomes the youngest player in NHL history to score an overtime goal in the regular season.

Matthew Schaefer becomes the youngest player in NHL history to score an overtime goal in the regular season.

Gabriel Vilardi wins it for the Jets in a shootoutGabriel Vilardi wins it for the Jets in a shootout

Macklin Celebrini’s hat trick wins it for Sharks in OTMacklin Celebrini scores on the power play for San Jose Sharks

Greg WyshynskiNov 19, 2025, 07:00 AM ETCloseGreg Wyshynski is ESPN’s senior NHL writer.Follow on X

play0:26Brad Marchand tallies goal vs. CanucksBrad Marchand tallies goal vs. Canucks

Heading into Tuesday night, no team in the East was more than four points out of the wild-card spot. In the West, all but three teams were within three points of a playoff spot. If the NHL is striving for parity, this has been an ideal start.

This month, we’re also looking at points of concern early this season for teams inside and outside the bubble.

The Stathletes model still loves the Lightning despite an inconsistent start. A lot of that can be chalked up to a torrent of injuries to players such as forwards Anthony Cirelli and Nick Paul, and defensemen Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh. Less understandable has been star center Brayden Point’s inability to hit the score sheet with his typical consistency during his first 18 games of the season.

All of these factors have contributed to the Lightning’s power play sputtering to 29th in the NHL this season, which is a huge reason their offense ranked 17th after 18 games. Since 2022, Tampa Bay’s power play (26.6%) was second only to Connor McDavid and the Oilers (27.8%) in conversion rate.

There’s a reason the Lightning were a popular pick to win the Atlantic, and Stathletes still has them projected for 103 points this season. They can be an elite team when healthy and playing to their full potential.

Cause for concern: After the Vancouver Canucks rallied with six straight goals to beat the Lightning in Tampa last weekend, coach Jon Cooper lamented that his team clearly rested on its early lead, comparing the matchup to “the tortoise and the hare.” There have been a few too many instances where the Lightning haven’t kept their foot on the gas.

Yes, it’s early. Yes, a healthy veteran lineup should correct that. But you want to see the killer instinct of a team like Colorado when it comes to what many believe could be the beast of the East this season. And the Lightning haven’t necessarily found that yet.

The Senators got three games out of Brady Tkachuk before their captain was sidelined with a thumb injury, having last played on Oct. 13. Ottawa has gone 8-4-4 in his absence, which is admirable considering how much Tkachuk is the team’s engine. Balance has been the name of the game.

Ottawa is still giving up more goals on average than it’s scoring, but it is finding ways to win games. Tim Stutzle (10 goals in 19 games) has been great, as have Drake Batherson (18 points in 16 games) and Shane Pinto, who earned a new contract with a strong offensive start. The Senators have eight different players in double digits in points through 19 games and have gotten goals from 17 different players.

Analytically, they’re outscoring their expected goals at 5-on-5. The trouble is, they’re worse defensively than their expected goals against per 60 minutes, which ranks second in the league. That’s because …

Cause for concern: … their goaltending has been a horror show. Through 19 games, both Linus Ullmark (minus-8 goals saved above expected) and Leevi Merilainen (minus-2.6) are underwater analytically, and their traditional stats aren’t any better, as both netminders had save percentages under .875.

Ullmark has played slightly better recently, but things with rookie Merilainen were so bumpy that he was demoted to the AHL for a bit to locate his game.

The Panthers had one prime directive to start the season: Tread water until the reinforcements arrive.

Florida knows it’ll get Matthew Tkachuk back in either December or January after he underwent surgery on his groin. Maybe forwards Tomas Nosek and Jonah Gadjovich and defenseman Dmitry Kulikov will return later in the season. Perhaps the Panthers’ prayers are answered and star captain Aleksander Barkov comes back to the lineup after a freak preseason injury that required surgery to repair the ACL and MCL in his right knee.

Whatever happens, Florida’s hopes for a dynastic Stanley Cup three-peat — the first one since the New York Islanders won four straight Cups in the 1980s — rest on the Panthers not digging an early-season hole in the standings. They’ve successfully avoided that through 19 games, earning a .553 points percentage.

The Panthers’ MVP this season has easily been the Rat King himself, Brad Marchand. The 37-year-old had 23 points in his first 18 games, including a team-leading 13 goals. His partnership with center Anton Lundell saw them go from an essential checking line during last season’s Cup run to the team’s top scoring line in Tkachuk’s absence.

Cause for concern: There’s a reason no one has captured three Stanley Cups in three straight seasons since the days of Mike Bossy and Denis Potvin. There are a lot of miles on some of these Panthers’ tires, especially when you consider they also made a run to the Stanley Cup Final before their back-to-back Cups. There’s already been a wave of injuries this season.

If Florida makes the postseason cut, it’s foolish to believe it couldn’t pull off the three-peat, because this team seems to have been designed in a lab to win in the playoffs. But it’ll be four years of this grind, and that’s a lot of grinding.

Brad Marchand tallies goal vs. CanucksBrad Marchand tallies goal vs. Canucks

After a surprising return to the Stanley Cup playoffs last season, the Canadiens picked up where they left off with a potent offense (sixth in scoring through 18 games) overcoming a somewhat porous defense (25th). Their top line of Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovsky is among the best in the NHL, with Suzuki (21 points in 18 games) and Caufield (13 goals) both making early declarative statements to make their respective Olympic teams.

The next wave of Canadiens has made an impact, too. Defenseman Lane Hutson built on his Calder Trophy win with 14 points in 18 games. Winger Ivan Demidov, this season’s Calder favorite, has started strong.

Perhaps most importantly, rookie goalie Jakub Dobes has been outstanding as veteran netminder Sam Montembeault has struggled mightily out of the gate.

Cause for concern: Injuries, injuries and more injuries. Center Kirby Dach will miss the next four to six weeks with a fractured foot. Defenseman Kaiden Guhle could miss up to 10 weeks after undergoing an adductor muscle surgery. Forward Alex Newhook will miss the next four months because of a broken ankle.

The trio joined an injury list that already included scoring winger Patrik Laine, who will miss at least three months after core muscle surgery.

For years, the debate around Dylan Larkin has been whether he was a true No. 1 center. After an eye-opening performance at the 4 Nations Face-Off last season, Larkin has answered that question with a brilliant first 19 games of the season, with 11 goals and 12 assists as the Red Wings’ early-season MVP.

The Red Wings’ offense should be better than their production. They’re ninth in expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 but rank 26th in goals scored. Getting Patrick Kane back from injury has helped, but Detroit needs to find a little more help beyond its consistent offensive options such as Alex DeBrincat and Lucas Raymond.

Cause for concern: Wait, wasn’t John Gibson supposed to be the answer in goal when GM Steve Yzerman acquired him from Anaheim? Gibson has been outplayed by incumbent Cam Talbot this season, sporting a .875 save percentage in 11 starts and playing to slightly below replacement levels.

Life without Mitch Marner has proved difficult for this Maple Leafs team, which had a .474 points percentage entering Tuesday night’s games, tied for last in the conference. Marner is not irreplaceable, but there was zero chance this season’s Maple Leafs were going to sufficiently replace his regular-season contributions on both ends of the ice.

The critics are out for the Leafs already in Toronto, with some questioning if this roster is playoff-worthy. The heat on Berube was turned up so high that GM Brad Treliving had to give a vote of confidence. (Uh-oh.) This is what happens when the Blue Jays’ playoff run ends.

Cause for concern: Easily the biggest cause for concern is Auston Matthews. The star center had nine goals and five assists in 17 games before leaving the lineup with a lower-body injury. The Leafs experienced life with a diminished Matthews last season, when he scored 33 goals in 67 games after scoring 69 goals in 81 games in 2023-24. If Toronto is going to rally for a playoff berth, it needs its MVP in the lineup and playing like one.

The Sabres are seeking their first playoff berth since 2011, and it was starting to look like that streak would remain very much intact. But a couple of wins over the Red Wings and the Edmonton Oilers have Buffalo trending in the right direction again.

Tage Thompson has been on a scoring heater. Rasmus Dahlin returned to the team after tending to a personal matter. Some of the young players in the supporting cast have started to contribute more.

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