Bill ConnellyNov 21, 2025, 07:15 AM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Follow on X
Josh Pate: Pretty surprised that Notre Dame was ranked ahead of Alabama (1:17)Josh Pate voices his surprise at Notre Dame’s placement in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. (1:17)
The college football season is teetering between order and chaos. On one hand, we basically have three teams guaranteed a playoff bid at this point (Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M) and another few that simply need to win games in which they’re heavily favored to wrap things up (Texas Tech, Georgia, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, maybe Alabama). That doesn’t leave many open spots.
On the other hand, those open spots have tons of semi-realistic contenders — at least 22 teams still have a puncher’s chance — and the ACC and American conference races could still be blown open again. The Big 12, Conference USA, Mountain West, MAC and SEC races are far from settled too. (And then there’s the whole “Ole Miss gearing up for a playoff bid and praying to hold on to its coach” thing.)
There is so much to keep track of Saturday, in other words. Stay caffeinated and keep the remote in your hand at all times! Here’s everything you need to follow in a hectic Week 13.
The old-school Big Ten portion of Oregon’s Big Ten schedule is over, and now the Ducks will finish up with old friends USC and Washington. The 9-1 Ducks still have some business to handle, playoff-wise, but they’ll be favored in both games, and they should still be OK at 10-2. At 8-2 and 15th in the CFP rankings, USC obviously has to win out to have a chance.
(*Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)
USC’s Jayden Maiava still ranks first nationally in Total QBR, as he has for most of the season. His combination of sack avoidance and big-play passing is rare — only 9.9% of pressures on him become sacks (fifth among power-conference QBs) and he averages 14.3 yards per completion (fourth).
In Makai Lemon, Maiava has an all-around star at receiver — he has made 61% of his catches out of the slot and 35% lined up wide, and though he does a lot of damage from screens, hook routes and other short passes, he also has caught 14 of 19 passes for 517 yards and three touchdowns on balls thrown 20-plus yards downfield. He has an elite catch rate at nearly every level.
Last week, against the best defense USC has faced this season (Iowa), Lemon caught 10 passes for 153 yards. Now comes the new best defense the Trojans have faced: Oregon ranks third in defensive SP+ and second in yards allowed per dropback. The Ducks have yet to give up more than 5.3 yards per play in any game. USC has yet to average less than 5.5.
That will be a great matchup, but whether this is a great game depends on USC’s defense. At 37th in defensive SP+, it’s comfortably the best group Lincoln Riley has fielded in Los Angeles, but against the only two top-20 offenses they’ve faced, per SP+ (Illinois and Notre Dame), the Trojans gave up 34.0 points per game and 7.2 yards per play. Oregon ranks 10th in offensive SP+.
The pass defense is solid, but the Trojans rank 126th in rushing success rate allowed and 103rd in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line). That’s pretty scary against an Oregon team that has grown hit-or-miss through the air but almost always brings it on the ground.
Oklahoma and BYU are in solid shape playoff-wise, but SP+ gives the Sooners only a 46% chance of winning their next two games, while the Cougars are at 52%. Now is not the time for a misstep.
If Missouri’s quarterback situation were a little steadier, this game would be a near toss-up. The Tigers force three-and-outs 42.6% of the time (fifth nationally), and though they can occasionally be vulnerable to big plays, OU doesn’t create many of those. They are happy to engage in field position warfare with a run game featuring Ahmad Hardy, the nation’s leading rusher, and they are the nation’s leader in net YAC.
The winner of the turnover battle probably takes this one, and with the way defensive end Taylor Wein and the Sooners’ defensive front can create havoc — they average 10.2 tackles for loss, and no one else tops 8.5 — mistakes from Mizzou’s QB of choice will probably make the difference.
Current line: OU -7.5 (down from -9.5 Sunday) | SP+ projection: OU by 5.4 | FPI projection: OU by 3.5
Texas Tech, BYU and Utah are the three nastiest, most physical teams in the Big 12, and they are a combined 27-4 in 2025 — 3-3 against each other and 24-1 against everyone else. BYU responded to a loss at Tech with a 44-13 blowout of TCU; now the Cougars face a Cincinnati team that has run aground, losing to Utah (45-14) and Arizona (30-24), and falling to 37th in SP+.
Cincy quarterback Brendan Sorsby, so good for much of the season, went just 26-for-61 (43%) with two touchdowns and three picks in those losses, and not even great production from running back Tawee Walker could save either game. The Bearcats’ defense has been a hindrance for much of the season, and suddenly the offense isn’t carrying its weight.
BYU’s offense still battles inconsistency at times, but against defenses ranked 30th or worse in SP+ they’re averaging 38.8 points and 6.5 yards per play. Does Cincinnati still have enough gas in the tank to match that?
The current ACC title scenarios range from straightforward to spectacularly messy. If Georgia Tech beats Pitt on Saturday and Virginia beats Virginia Tech next week, the Yellow Jackets would almost certainly play the Cavaliers. But if Pitt beats Tech, the Panthers could clinch with an underdog win over Miami next week. SMU, meanwhile, would benefit from a Pitt win, but the Mustangs have two tricky games left (Louisville, at Cal).
Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel finally looked like a freshman last week against Notre Dame, going 16-for-33 with an interception and four sacks. The run game went nowhere, star Desmond Reid got hurt, and a decent defensive performance couldn’t prevent a 37-15 loss. But as Pat Narduzzi so elegantly put it last week, that game didn’t really matter. If the Panthers win their next two, they will play for the ACC title.
Georgia Tech’s defense is much, much worse than Notre Dame’s. The Yellow Jackets rank 99th in yards allowed per carry (no sacks) and 95th in yards allowed per dropback. They’re pretty good when opponents are behind schedule, but those scenarios are rare. Pitt should score a decent amount, but the Panthers still have to slow down Tech’s star quarterback Haynes King. In his past six starts, he has averaged 291 passing yards and 93 non-sack rushing yards per game — nearly a 4,000/1,200 pace.
The stakes are enormous for Tech over these next three weeks: It could win the ACC and get long-awaited revenge on rival Georgia after last season’s heartbreak, or it could suffer double heartbreak instead. No pressure.
Two weeks ago, Louisville had 42% of its snaps gain zero or fewer yards, with three sacks and loads of pressure on Miller Moss, and suffered an upset loss to Cal. Last week, the Cardinals were more efficient but produced 10 penalties, including four on offensive linemen and blocking tight ends, and fell to Clemson. Glitches up front have ruined their ACC title and CFP hopes (running back injuries haven’t helped), and now the best they can hope to do is ruin SMU’s.
Unfortunately for Louisville, SMU is good at creating offensive line glitches. The Mustangs are 25th in stuff rate and 37th in sack rate, and though they’ll give up big plays as a trade-off — and their secondary has battled a lot of injuries — Moss needs to be upright to make that happen.
Louisville’s defense will have a lot of the same advantages, at least. SMU’s offense is improving, but the Cards rank in the top 20 in yards allowed per both carry and dropback. Edge rusher Clev Lubin and slot corner Antonio Watts are outstanding disruptors and will give Louisville a chance.
If Michigan wins its last two games, the Wolverines could give the CFP committee a giant headache. At 18th, they need some help to move into playoff positioning, but a win over top-ranked Ohio State would be an enormous boost (and might sneak them into the Big Ten championship game).
One issue: How many times have they actually looked like a playoff team this year? Twice? They were certainly impressive in the 63-3 win over Central Michigan, and manhandling Washington 24-7 in mid-October was excellent, but they’ve underachieved against projections in five of the past six games. Maryland has been outscored by an average of 38-12 in November, but it’s probably time for Michigan to start looking the part, and potentially in rainy conditions.
In theory, I understand the anger regarding Miami’s No. 13 CFP ranking. The Hurricanes did beat No. 9 Notre Dame in the season opener, and they have the same number of losses. Still, Notre Dame has lost only to the No. 3 and No. 13 teams while beating No. 15 USC. Miami has the win over the Irish but has lost twice to unranked teams — playing timidly late in both games — and has no other super-impressive wins on the résumé. No sympathy here.
Kansas State had something going for a bit, winning three of four to jump to 4-4, but after a pummeling against Texas Tech, the Wildcats needed five takeaways to survive a dismal performance against one of the worst Oklahoma State teams of our lifetimes. Their momentum has halted, and now they have to face a mean and ambitious Utah team. The Utes have beaten only one SP+ top-50 opponent, but they’re eighth in SP+ because their wins have come by an average of 48-12.
K-State’s Avery Johnson is still super elusive, and the Wildcats’ run defense is decent, but it’s hard to imagine Johnson escaping star John Henry Daley all game, and it’s hard to imagine the Wildcats knocking QB Devon Dampier and the Utah ground game off course for long.
What does Temple have left in the tank? K.C. Keeler’s 5-5 Owls have been a pleasant surprise and, at their best, get high-level passing from Evan Simon and solid pursuit from linebackers Damien Ordonez and Cam’Ron Stewart. But they might have peaked a month ago.