Highlight: No. 8 Oklahoma defense dominates No. 22 Missouri (1:31)The Sooners hold the Tigers and their vaunted ground attack to 70 rushing yards and a pair of field goals in a convincing 17-6 victory in Norman. (1:31)
After a ho-hum Week 13 that only featured two games between two ranked opponents, there wasn’t any movement in this week’s top 12 projection, but there are two questions looming over the committee as they debate their fourth of six rankings to be revealed on Tuesday night (7 p.m. ET/ESPN):
Why they could be lower: Nothing happened on Saturday that would prompt the committee to rethink the Buckeyes’ place at the top, but Ohio State had the worst schedule strength (No. 48) of the top three teams entering Saturday.
Need to know: While Ohio State and Indiana remain the most likely matchup in the Big Ten championship game — each controls its own destiny — neither clinched a spot in Week 13. Ohio State can clinch a spot with a win against Michigan OR losses by both Indiana and Oregon. The Buckeyes and Hoosiers are joined by Oregon and Michigan with chances to reach the Big Ten title game, but the Ducks and Wolverines each need help to clinch.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they could be higher: Given how the committee has voted and deliberated through three rankings, Indiana likely needs Ohio State to lose to Michigan — or IU needs to beat the Buckeyes in the Big Ten title game — to earn the top spot.
Need to know: Indiana can clinch a spot in the Big Ten championship game with a win next week or an Ohio State loss.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Purdue. The Hoosiers had a bye to prepare for their regular-season finale against their in-state rivals.
Need to know: The Aggies will clinch a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Texas OR if both Alabama and Ole Miss lose.
Need to know: According to ESPN Research, Georgia can clinch a spot in the SEC title game in Week 14 with an Alabama loss OR a Texas A&M loss.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Georgia Tech. The one-loss Yellow Jackets pushed their in-state rival to eight overtimes last year.
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders had a bye week, and are “highly regarded by this committee,” chair Hunter Yurachek said following the third ranking. Dominant wins at Utah and against BYU have elevated Texas Tech in the ranking, and the committee has also been impressed with the Red Raiders’ defense, particularly up front. Texas Tech’s lone loss was Oct. 18 at Arizona State, which popped into the latest ranking at No. 25, helping to ease some of that stumble.
Why they could be lower: With both Texas Tech and Ole Miss off on Saturday, it’s unlikely their positions will change in the fourth ranking.
Need to know: Texas Tech is within arm’s reach of a first-round bye, which makes it highly unlikely the Red Raiders would fall out of the playoff even if they finished as the Big 12 runner-up.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at West Virginia. It’s on the road at a notoriously difficult venue, but the Red Raiders have a 91.6% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.
Why they could be here: The committee has had Texas Tech ahead of Ole Miss in part because of a better résumé, though the Red Raiders have two top 25 wins (BYU and Utah), and Ole Miss also has two (Oklahoma and Tulane). The Rebels’ win against the Sooners looks better than Oregon’s win against USC, as the Sooners are a top-10 team and were able to hold off Missouri on Saturday to stay that way.
Need to know: The Rebels will clinch a spot in the SEC championship game if they win the Egg Bowl AND both Texas A&M and Alabama lose.
Remaining game: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State. The Rebels don’t have much if any margin for error against their in-state rivals. A second loss would put Ole Miss into a debate it might not win, given its schedule strength ranks No. 15 in the SEC.
Why they could be here: The Ducks added a much-needed statement win to their résumé on Saturday against USC, solidifying their spot as the Big Ten’s third playoff team. Assuming three-loss USC is still ranked on Tuesday night, though, Saturday’s victory is the Ducks’ only win against a CFP top 25 team. Big Ten opponents Northwestern, Iowa and Minnesota are all above .500, which the committee values, but Ole Miss has a slightly better résumé with its wins against Oklahoma and Tulane.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Washington. This isn’t an easy road trip, as the bowl-bound Huskies have had a respectable season in the second year under coach Jedd Fisch.
Why they could be lower: It’s clear the committee likes Notre Dame, and the Irish hammered Syracuse 70-7. Oklahoma’s defense is one of the best in the country, but the Sooners’ offense is No. 43 in efficiency — well below No. 6 Notre Dame. It would be difficult to justify flipping the Irish above the Sooners, though, given that Syracuse is now 3-8 and OU beat a ranked SEC team on top of having a stronger overall résumé.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 vs. LSU. The Sooners need to avoid what would be a devastating upset to the four-loss Tigers.
Why they could be higher: If the committee gives Notre Dame another boost, it would be because the Irish have been more consistently dominant on offense than the Sooners. Oklahoma, though, has played tougher competition than Notre Dame over the past few weeks and has the edge in overall schedule strength and strength of record.
Remaining game: Nov. 29 at Stanford. The Irish have a 95% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.
Why they could be higher: If Alabama’s résumé wasn’t enough to keep the Tide ahead of Notre Dame last week, it’s unlikely to change this week. Alabama entered Saturday No. 8 in Strength of Record and No. 2 in strength of schedule, both ahead of Notre Dame.
Need to know: With Tennessee’s win on Saturday, Alabama can now clinch a spot in the SEC title game with a win against Auburn.
Why they could be lower: It would be hard for the committee to justify moving BYU given the head-to-head against Utah and one fewer loss. And Alabama’s résumé will make it very difficult to move up.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, BYU would be bumped out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the ACC champion, which is still projected to be ranked outside of the committee’s top 12 but guaranteed a spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.
Why they could be here: After finding a way to escape K-State on Saturday, Utah’s only losses are to the Big 12’s best teams — Texas Tech and BYU — and the committee considers who a team lost to as part of their deliberations. The Utes’ best wins are against Arizona State and Cincinnati, but they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to BYU.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Utah would be excluded during the seeding process to make room for the fifth-highest ranked conference champion, which this week we project will be Tulane.
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
Why they could be here: A dominant win against a now sub.-500 Rutgers team isn’t going to change the way the committee views Ohio State — as the most complete team in the country. Ohio State entered Saturday leading the country in total efficiency, and ranked in the top three in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Wins against No. 17 Texas and No. 21 Illinois (who lost to Wisconsin on Saturday) are the only ones against CFP top 25 opponents, but a road win against Washington is also respected in the room. The committee has specifically noted the elite play of receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate — and even with both sidelined with injuries on Saturday, Ohio State was able to dismantle the Rutgers defense.
Why they could be here: With the Hoosiers on a bye — and both Ohio State and Texas A&M playing unranked, inferior opponents — it’s unlikely there’s any movement at the top again. Indiana has earned the committee’s respect with its double-digit win at Oregon, and its top-five rankings for both offensive and defensive efficiency. The group has taken note of Indiana’s consistent dominance, with its most glaring struggles coming on the road against Iowa and Penn State, both notoriously difficult places to win. Indiana entered Week 13 ranked No. 3 in the country in ESPN’s Game Control metric.
Why they could be here: It’s not because they manhandled Samford, an overmatched 1-11 FCS team. It’s mostly because the Aggies are clinging to a 41-40 win at No. 9 Notre Dame, the highlight of their undefeated résumé. The Nov. 8 win at Mizzou, which came when Tigers’ starting quarterback Beau Pribula was sidelined with an injury, is a borderline top-25 win that was devalued somewhat on Saturday with Mizzou’s loss to Oklahoma. Texas A&M still leads the nation in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, which gives the average top 25 team just a 2.2% chance of achieving the same undefeated record against the same opponents.
Why they could be lower: It’s unlikely anything will change in the third ranking, but if Texas A&M loses to Texas — and doesn’t win the SEC — it will be interesting to see where the Aggies fall on Selection Day. They didn’t see Alabama or Georgia during the regular season, playing just the 12th-most difficult schedule in the SEC, according to ESPN Analytics — ahead of only Vandy, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Missouri. The Aggies rank just outside the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs are here because of their 35-10 drubbing of Texas on Nov. 15 — not because they overpowered Charlotte 35-3 on Saturday. Georgia only has one loss and Alabama has two, so the Bulldogs’ head-to-head loss to the Tide on Sept. 27 was overcome in the third ranking. Wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Texas give Georgia one of the best résumés in the country. Georgia entered Saturday ranked No. 4 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric and No. 12 in strength of schedule –ahead of Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M.