Kyle BonaguraCloseKyle BonaguraESPN Staff WriterCovers college football.Joined ESPN in 2014.Attended Washington State University.Follow on XMark SchlabachCloseMark SchlabachESPN Senior WriterSenior college football writer Author of seven books on college football Graduate of the University of GeorgiaFollow on XNov 23, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
Finebaum wonders if Kiffin possibly leaving Ole Miss could impact the CFP rankings (1:06)Paul Finebaum and Heather Dinich discuss how the CFP committee might react to Lane Kiffin’s uncertain future at Ole Miss. (1:06)
With one week left in the regular season, the College Football Playoff and bowl pictures are coming into sharper focus — except where they aren’t.
Meanwhile, teams sitting at five wins are sweating things out, with one more chance to become bowl eligible.
As with last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with the national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Bonagura: The ACC doomsday scenario of its conference champion being left out of the playoff in favor of a team from the American — Tulane or North Texas — and the Sun Belt’s James Madison is still alive, but it feels like a we’ll-believe-it-when-we-see-it thing.
The rest of the playoff field is mostly straightforward. Six teams from the SEC and Big Ten are locks (Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Oregon). So is Texas Tech of the Big 12. Notre Dame (Stanford), Alabama (Auburn) and Oklahoma (LSU) are probably in with wins, but one of those slots would go to BYU if the Cougars beat Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game.
Schlabach: The appetizer to the final weekend of the regular season didn’t produce much drama, as every CFP contender — outside of the ACC at least — found a way to get things done, mostly against inferior competition.
With two weeks left before the CFP selection committee announces the 12-team bracket on Dec. 7, I’m betting that five teams — Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia and Texas Tech — have punched their tickets, regardless of what happens in their regular-season finales and respective conference championship games (if they make it there).
Notre Dame and Alabama would probably be in good shape for at-large bids with wins this coming weekend; the Irish play at struggling Stanford on Saturday, while the Crimson Tide travel to Auburn in Saturday’s Iron Bowl. However, they might still be at the mercy of the selection committee, depending on what happens in other leagues.
CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas) 7:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 Indiana Schlabach: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana
CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida) Noon, ESPN Bonagura: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Georgia Schlabach: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Georgia
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California) 4 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Bonagura: No changes for me here from last week, but it should be noted that Oregon is back on track offensively after a couple of uninspiring showings in late October and early November.
Texas A&M walloped FCS program Samford 48-0 in its final warmup game. The Aggies will play at rival Texas for the first time in 15 years on Saturday. Texas A&M won 24-17 at Texas on Nov. 25, 2010. The Longhorns won the past two games in the series, both in College Station.
Georgia took care of business in a 35-3 win against Charlotte. The Bulldogs will play rival Georgia Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Saturday. Last season, Georgia had to overcome a 17-point deficit and needed eight overtimes to put the Yellow Jackets away in a 44-42 victory.
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona) 7:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta) 7:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana Schlabach: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Bonagura: Ohio State is the deserved No. 1 seed. Its defense has been historically good, and the Buckeyes haven’t been challenged since opening the season with Texas. But they also haven’t exactly seen the best the Big Ten has to offer without Indiana, Oregon, USC or Iowa on the schedule this year.
Schlabach: My quarterfinal and semifinal matchups remain unchanged from a week ago. The Cotton Bowl contest would feature two of the best transfer quarterbacks in the FBS: Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza.
I have Georgia slipping past Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl, although the Red Raiders’ menacing defensive front would be quite the challenge for the Bulldogs’ much-improved offensive line. Georgia seems to be peaking at the right time, unlike last season, and few coaches know how to get things done in the postseason like Kirby Smart.
A Rose Bowl game between Notre Dame and Ohio State would be a TV ratings bonanza, and Texas A&M-Oregon in New Orleans would be another entertaining game. I have both favorites moving on to the semifinals.
Cricket Celebration Bowl Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta) Noon, ABC Bonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
LA Bowl SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Arizona State vs. San Diego State Schlabach: Washington vs. San Diego State
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Central Michigan vs. Troy Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy
StaffDNA Cure Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) 5 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Marshall Schlabach: Florida International vs. Old Dominion
68 Ventures Bowl Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama) 8:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Central Michigan
Myrtle Beach Bowl Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina) Noon, ESPN Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. UConn Schlabach: Marshall vs. East Carolina
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Toledo vs. UNLV Schlabach: Ohio vs. Boise State
Boca Raton Bowl Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Florida International vs. Louisiana Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. Louisiana
New Orleans Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Boise State Schlabach: Utah State vs. Louisiana Tech
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu) 8 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Hawai’i vs. California Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. California
GameAbove Sports Bowl Ford Field (Detroit) 1 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Penn State vs. Ohio Schlabach: Penn State vs. Western Michigan
Rate Bowl Chase Field (Phoenix) 4:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Northwestern Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Minnesota
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas) 8 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Texas State vs. Utah State Schlabach: North Texas vs. UNLV
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York) Noon, ABC Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Illinois
Wasabi Fenway Bowl Fenway Park (Boston) 2:15 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: NC State vs. Army Schlabach: Louisville vs. South Florida
Pop-Tarts Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) 3:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Miami vs. Houston Schlabach: Virginia vs. Cincinnati
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona) 4:30 p.m., CW Network Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico) 5:45 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Boise State vs. Washington State Schlabach: New Mexico vs. UTSA
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida) 7:30 p.m. ABC Bonagura: Virginia vs. LSU Schlabach: Miami vs. Texas
Kinder’s Texas Bowl NRG Stadium (Houston) 9:15 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Texas Schlabach: Houston vs. Kentucky
JLab Birmingham Bowl Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Florida State vs. Memphis Schlabach: NC State vs. James Madison
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UTSA vs. Kennesaw State Schlabach: Baylor vs. Western Kentucky
Music City Bowl Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Missouri Schlabach: Northwestern vs. LSU
ReliaQuest Bowl Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) Noon, ESPN Bonagura: Illinois vs. Kentucky Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas) 2 p.m., CBS Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona Schlabach: Clemson vs. Arizona
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) 3 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Michigan vs. Vanderbilt Schlabach: Michigan vs. Vanderbilt
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas) 3:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Iowa vs. Utah Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
