play0:45Cockcroft: Carson Schwesinger is a must-add for fantasy managers in Week 12Tristan H. Cockcroft advocates for Carson Schwesinger to be rostered in more fantasy leagues heading into Week 12.
play9:13Stephen A. picks the Cowboys over the Eagles! ‘Dak and the crew will put up numbers!’On First Take, Stephen A. Smith, Cam Newton and Ryan Clark preview the upcoming Week 12 matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys.
‘The dynasty is over!’ Compton declares Colts will blow out Chiefs (1:30)Will Compton boldly predicts the Chiefs will get blown out by the Colts on Sunday. (1:30)
Cockcroft: Carson Schwesinger is a must-add for fantasy managers in Week 12Tristan H. Cockcroft advocates for Carson Schwesinger to be rostered in more fantasy leagues heading into Week 12.
Tristan H. Cockcroft advocates for Carson Schwesinger to be rostered in more fantasy leagues heading into Week 12.
Stephen A. picks the Cowboys over the Eagles! ‘Dak and the crew will put up numbers!’On First Take, Stephen A. Smith, Cam Newton and Ryan Clark preview the upcoming Week 12 matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys.
On First Take, Stephen A. Smith, Cam Newton and Ryan Clark preview the upcoming Week 12 matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys.
Value is value, no matter where — or how — you find it. And that’s what we’ll aim to do each week in this space — find value.
Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives to how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X’s and O’s to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league.
These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.
Bowen: A key matchup in this game to watch? It’s the Chiefs’ ability to heat up the pocket against Daniel Jones. When pressured this season, Jones has a 52.2 QBR, and his off-target rate jumps to 21.1%. I see the Chiefs — who have a top-10 blitz rate — dictating the flow of this game from a defensive perspective. Take them to cover the 3.5 points at Arrowhead.
Solak: This is an important line to get now, as it has moved down to 10 — but I do not expect it to get to 9.5 unless we get surprising injury news out of Detroit. This line is already a Jaxson Dart line, and I don’t think it’ll move much when Dart is officially announced as active for this game. If you want to risk it for the 9.5, feel free — I’ll hit it again if 9.5s become available.
Bowen: With a matchup against a New York Jets defense giving up 28.6 points per game (27th in the league), I like the Ravens to hit the over. Look for Baltimore to script a call sheet that stretches the Jets, both horizontally and vertically, creating space for Lamar Jackson to utilize his dual-threat ability.
Cockcroft: Carson Schwesinger is a must-add for fantasy managers in Week 12
Caleb Williams’ sack avoidance improvement from year one to year two is one of the most improbable changes in 2025. Williams took sacks at a huge 10% rate last season, but that has dropped to 4.3% — clearly better than average. Against the old Williams, these odds might be plenty reasonable. But the new, improved, sack-avoidant Williams? My model doesn’t think so.
Part of this is also that T.J. Watt is not the player he once was, with a 12.4% pass rush win rate that is below average among edge rushers. Yes, part of that is because Watt is chipped at a very high rate, but no matter how it happens, Watt has been making a more limited impact than he has in the past. My model prices the under at -169.
Mafe has just 1.0 sacks on the season and was a trade candidate at the deadline, but don’t let that fool you into thinking he can’t rush the passer. Mafe actually ranks 12th in pass rush win rate at edge this season (17.3%), just ahead of players like Bryce Huff, Brian Burns and teammate DeMarcus Lawrence.
Only four times previously this season has a cornerback had a tackle line of only 2.5 — and two of those were shaded more strongly to the over than Stokes’ line here. That’s how extreme this line is for Stokes, a corner who has, to be fair, only cleared this line five times in four games.
Stephen A. picks the Cowboys over the Eagles! ‘Dak and the crew will put up numbers!’
Bowen: In a Week 1 head-to-head matchup with Dallas, Hurts rushed for 62 yards on 14 carries. With Dallas playing heavy zone coverage — getting to depth and squeezing windows — Hurts was forced to pull the ball down as a runner. And I expect a similar defensive script from the Cowboys on Sunday, especially if Hurts is unwilling to cut it loose on middle-of-the-field throws.
Bowen: Love has topped the 20-yard rushing mark in four of his past seven games, and the Minnesota Vikings defensive identity forces quarterbacks to move. Minnesota currently has the league’s highest blitz rate (44.1%), so look for Love to make plays outside of structure as a runner.
Bowen: The Bears are beat up at the linebacker position, and this defensive unit is already allowing 5.2 YPC, which ranks 29th in the league. Look for the Steelers to deploy more two- and three-tight end sets, featuring Warren in a run-heavy game plan.
Bowen: In the past two games, with head coach Dan Campbell calling plays, Gibbs has totaled 30 or more yards receiving in each, which includes 107 yards receiving he dropped on the Eagles’ defense in Week 11. Look for Campbell to get Gibbs loose on backfield releases that isolate the New York Giants’ linebackers in coverage.
Walder: Running backs record a reception on 8% of plays against man coverage, but that number jumps to 15% (almost double!) when facing zone. So what we’ve been doing all season is what we’re doing here: backing running back reception overs when facing a zone-heavy defense and unders against man-heavy defenses. The Dallas Cowboys aren’t running zone quite as often as they were early in the season, but they have still deployed zone coverage 74% of the time — second most in the NFL.
Bowen: Allgeier has seven rushing scores on the season, and we know he will get work in the low red zone area of the field. Allgeier had a rushing touchdown last week inside the 5-yard line, and he has a total of four goal-to-go carries in his past two games. Let’s bet on Allgeier to cash in on those opportunities again versus the Saints.
Bowen: Higgins has had at least eight targets in four of his past five games. And those numbers should jump with Ja’Marr Chase out (suspension) for the Week 12 matchup against the Patriots. Let’s take Higgins to hit the over in a game in which the Bengals could be chasing points, leading to more throwing volume from his quarterback.
Bowen: Diggs caught nine passes for 105 yards in a Week 11 win over the New York Jets, and he has had 17 targets over his past two games. With the steady volume, plus the positive matchup against the Bengals’ defense, the over on Diggs hits this Sunday.
Bowen: Kelce had 13 targets in Week 11 against the Denver Broncos, and he has topped the 52-yard receiving mark in six straight games. Plus, the Colts are giving up an average of 72.6 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends (fourth most in the league). Let’s stick with Kelce to hit the over — again.
Bowen: In two games with the Seahawks, Shaheed has a vertical route rate of 56.4%. Big number there. So, we know Shaheed is being deployed down the field at the third level. And I think he connects with quarterback Sam Darnold on a shot play throw against the Titans.
Solak: Maybe I’m getting trapped by this line, but I’m happy to fall into the pit. The Colts are averaging a whopping 3.17 points per drive on the season, yet have a total of only 23.5 total points against a respectable, but unspectacular Kansas City Chiefs defense. Kansas City is seventh in points per drive allowed, yes — but they’re 12th in first down conversion rate and 14th in success rate. Not a juggernaut group. The Colts are third in red zone touchdown rate and first in red zone score rate. I’m confident they’ll punch it in for seven when they get downfield.
With the Chiefs’ backs against the wall, an inspired effort is expected from the offense, which hasn’t been doing its part in recent weeks. But the defense doesn’t have the tools to handle the Colts’ offense. Daniel Jones has struggled against defenses with speedy edge rushers who quickly make him reset in the pocket — that’s not Kansas City. It’s worth noting that Jones was limited in Thursday practice by a calf injury, but the Indianapolis beat seems to think it was a technicality more than anything else.
I’m guessing that part of the reason for this low line is the quarterback on the other side: Shedeur Sanders. With expectations low for Sanders, one might think the Browns won’t be throwing a ton, thus costing Raiders cornerbacks tackle opportunities. But Sanders’ pass attempt expectations aren’t actually that low. Both my pass attempts model and the betting line for Sanders attempts this week is 28.5. It’s on the low side, sure, but nothing extreme. As such, my tackle model thinks Stokes’ tackle line is a value.
Solak: Much has been made of the fact that Maye doesn’t yet have a game with more than 300 yards passing. Well, he’s averaging a cold 258 and has been over this particular figure in eight out of 11 games this season. Of the three games he failed to clear 252.5, two were enormous first-half blowouts, against the Carolina Panthers and Tennessee Titans, respectively. With Joe Burrow expected to return for Week 12, I don’t think this will be a blowout. If anything, the Bengals might play faster as they skew to a heavier pass rate over expectation with Burrow under center. That means more snaps for Maye. Though the Bengals’ run defense is quite poor, it’s the passing overs that have really gotten them this season. Eight of 10 quarterbacks have gone over their closing passing yardage line against Cincinnati this season. The two that failed were Carson Wentz and Aaron Rodgers, the latter of whom left last week’s game early because of a wrist injury. I expect we see Maye rip off his typical big gains through the air, and with a slightly increased dropback rate, get over this number handily.