Finebaum wonders if Kiffin possibly leaving Ole Miss could impact the CFP rankings (1:06)Paul Finebaum and Heather Dinich discuss how the CFP committee might react to Lane Kiffin’s uncertain future at Ole Miss. (1:06)
Six teams are still eligible to reach the ACC championship game — Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Pitt, SMU and Virginia. Another four are still in contention to win the Big 12 (Arizona State, BYU, Texas Tech and Utah).
The bubble is bursting with lingering hope heading into the final week of the regular season. With only Rivalry Week and the conference championship games remaining, the picture can still change drastically as teams punctuate their résumés — or tumble out entirely.
Little if any change, though, is expected Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s fourth of six rankings (7 p.m. ET/ESPN). Eleven of the committee’s top 12 teams won on Saturday — and 10 of those victories came by double digits. While the latest top 12 projection remained unchanged, the teams on the bubble have shifted.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on this week’s projection. Check back following the selection show for an updated version that will account for the committee’s latest top 25.
First team out: Vanderbilt. The Commodores could stay status quo this week, which means at No. 14 they remain a long shot for an at-large bid. Punctuating their résumé with a win against a ranked Tennessee is the first step, but they would also need multiple upsets ahead of them to get serious consideration. It’s not inconceivable, as Miami can lose at Pitt, Oklahoma can suffer a third loss to LSU, Alabama can lose the Iron Bowl. None of it matters, though, without a win in Knoxville.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
Last team in: Oregon. With the win against USC, Oregon eliminated the biggest threat to its playoff spot in the Big Ten and further solidified its spot in the top 10. It could even have a case this week to jump Ole Miss. Oregon now has an 18% chance to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics, but it needs to beat Washington AND it needs Michigan to beat Ohio State.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Utah. ASU can earn a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win against Arizona AND a BYU loss OR a win AND losses by both Texas Tech and Utah. The Utes will reach the Big 12 title game if they beat Kansas AND both BYU and Arizona State win AND Texas Tech loses.
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Pitt, SMU. Here’s where you can find your convoluted scenarios. Pitt can get in the ACC championship game with a win AND either a loss by SMU OR UVA. Duke can get in with a win and losses by two of the following three teams: Pitt, SMU and Virginia. Georgia Tech needs so many things to happen it might want to find a church instead of Georgia.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish are doing everything right — they’re winning and looking good doing it. If they can seal the deal with what should be a relatively easy win against Stanford, Notre Dame will be in the familiar position of waiting and watching while the conference championship games unfold and possibly alter the picture. Notre Dame fans should be keeping a close eye on the SEC and Big 12 title games.
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s third ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do or need help. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
Last team in: Alabama. The Tide can either lock up a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Auburn in the Iron Bowl — or it can miss the playoff entirely with a loss to its rival. The debate comes if Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up. The Tide has played the ninth-most-difficult schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics, and its résumé would only be enhanced by facing a top-five opponent in the SEC championship game. A third loss, though, even in a close game to a top-five team, could drop Alabama into a dangerous spot in the top 12 where it could face elimination to make room for a guaranteed conference champion — or a second Big 12 team.
Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win at West Virginia. As long as Texas Tech can do that, it should be a lock for the CFP — win or lose in the Big 12 championship. It would be both stunning and difficult for the committee to justify dropping Texas Tech if its second loss is to a top-11 BYU team that it beat handily during the regular season. The Red Raiders would be the only team that could claim a regular-season win over the eventual Big 12 champs in that scenario.
First team out: Virginia. Of all the convoluted scenarios still left in the ACC, this isn’t one of them: if Virginia beats rival Virginia Tech on Saturday, the Cavaliers will clinch a spot in the conference title game. It will be interesting to see if the committee ranks three-loss SMU tonight. The Mustangs have the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (86%) followed by Virginia (81%) after Week 13, but SMU lost to Baylor, TCU and Wake Forest — the latter of which are both above .500. If SMU wins at Cal on Saturday, the Mustangs will clinch a spot in the ACC title game. Virginia was the committee’s second-highest-ranked ACC team behind Miami in its fourth ranking, and the Cavaliers had a bye.
Would be in: Tulane. This is where the committee will probably continue to differ from the computers, which say James Madison (57%) and North Texas (54.4%) have the best chance to reach the playoff. JMU’s schedule is currently ranked No. 123, while North Texas is No. 127, and that has held both of them back in the committee meeting room. Tulane is No. 73 with wins against Duke and Northwestern. The No. 24-ranked Green Wave will likely maintain its spot this week as the committee’s highest-ranked Group of 5 team following its 37-13 win at Temple, its largest margin of victory this season.
Finebaum wonders if Kiffin possibly leaving Ole Miss could impact the CFP rankings (1:06)Paul Finebaum and Heather Dinich discuss how the CFP committee might react to Lane Kiffin’s uncertain future at Ole Miss. (1:06)
Paul Finebaum and Heather Dinich discuss how the CFP committee might react to Lane Kiffin’s uncertain future at Ole Miss. (1:06)
And don’t forget that Michigan can still make it to the Big Ten title game.
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Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Based on this week’s projection, the seeding would be:
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ) No. 2 Indiana No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ) No. 4 Georgia