Finebaum wonders if Kiffin possibly leaving Ole Miss could impact the CFP rankings (1:06)Paul Finebaum and Heather Dinich discuss how the CFP committee might react to Lane Kiffin’s uncertain future at Ole Miss. (1:06)
Though the Canes have no margin for error and could still use some help above them, they might get it if Ole Miss doesn’t win the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State. No. 6 Oregon jumped one spot above No. 7 Ole Miss, indicating that the Rebels might not recover from a second stumble.
With Rivalry Week on the horizon, there are still plenty of scenarios that can unfold — and hope is still oozing from the bubble.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the committee’s fourth ranking.
First team out: Vanderbilt. The Commodores could stay status quo this week, which means at No. 14 they remain a long shot for an at-large bid. Punctuating their résumé with a win against a ranked Tennessee is the first step, but they would also need multiple upsets ahead of them to get serious consideration. It’s not inconceivable, as Miami can lose at Pitt, Oklahoma can suffer a third loss to LSU, Alabama can lose the Iron Bowl. None of it matters, though, without a win in Knoxville.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Utah. ASU can earn a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win against Arizona AND a BYU loss OR a win AND losses by both Texas Tech and Utah. The Utes will reach the Big 12 title game if they beat Kansas AND both BYU and Arizona State win AND Texas Tech loses.
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Pitt, SMU. Here’s where you can find your convoluted scenarios. Pitt can get in the ACC championship game with a win AND either a loss by SMU OR UVA. Duke can get in with a win and losses by two of the following three teams: Pitt, SMU and Virginia. Georgia Tech needs so many things to happen it might want to find a church instead of Georgia.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
With the Hurricanes creeping up to No. 12 on Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s fourth of six rankings, the ACC’s hope of having two teams qualify for the 12-team field is still alive. Time is running out, though, to convince the selection committee they’re better than Notre Dame — and right now a gap remains in spite of the head-to-head win. The ACC champion — even if it’s No. 18 Virginia — is almost certainly guaranteed a spot as one of the five-highest ranked conference champions. That’s evidenced by the fact that five of the ACC’s teams are still ranked above No. 24 Tulane, the only representative from a Group of 5 conference. The question is if Miami can do enough to join the ACC champion as an at-large team with one game remaining, on Saturday at No. 22 Pitt.
Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s fourth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do or need help. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
Last team in: Alabama. The Tide can either lock up a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Auburn in the Iron Bowl — or can miss the playoff entirely with a loss to its rival. The debate will come if Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up. The Tide have played the ninth-hardest schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics, and their résumé would only be enhanced by facing a top-five opponent in the SEC championship game. A third loss, though, even in a close game to a top-five team, could drop Alabama into a dangerous spot in the top 12 where it could face elimination to make room for a guaranteed conference champion — or a second Big 12 team.
Last team in: Oregon. With the win against USC, Oregon eliminated the biggest threat to its playoff spot in the Big Ten and further solidified its spot in the top 10. The win against USC boosted the Ducks’ résumé enough to jump Ole Miss and the complete performance against another ranked contender answered some questions in the committee meeting room. Oregon now has an 16.5% chance to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics, but it needs to beat Washington AND it needs Michigan to beat Ohio State.
Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win at West Virginia. As long as Texas Tech can do that, it should be a lock for the CFP — win or lose in the Big 12 championship. It would be both stunning and difficult for the committee to justify dropping Texas Tech if its second loss is to a top-11 BYU team that it beat handily during the regular season. The Red Raiders would be the only team that could claim a regular-season win over the eventual Big 12 champs in that scenario.
First team out: Virginia. Of all the convoluted scenarios still left in the ACC, this isn’t one of them: if Virginia beats rival Virginia Tech on Saturday, the Cavaliers will clinch a spot in the conference title game. And with No. 21 SMU now one of five ranked teams from the conference, the ACC title game is likely to feature two ranked opponents. The Mustangs have the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (86%) followed by Virginia (81%) after Week 13, but SMU lost to Baylor, TCU and Wake Forest — the latter of which are both above .500. If SMU wins at Cal on Saturday, the Mustangs will clinch a spot in the ACC title game. Virginia was the committee’s second-highest-ranked ACC team behind Miami in its fourth ranking, and the Cavaliers had a bye.
Would be in: Tulane. This is where the committee will probably continue to differ from the computers, which say James Madison (57%) and North Texas (54.4%) have the best chance to reach the playoff. JMU’s schedule is currently ranked No. 123, while North Texas is No. 127, and that has held both of them back in the committee meeting room. Tulane is No. 73 with wins against Duke and Northwestern. The No. 24-ranked Green Wave maintained its spot this week as the committee’s highest-ranked Group of 5 team following its 37-13 win at Temple, its largest margin of victory this season.
Finebaum wonders if Kiffin possibly leaving Ole Miss could impact the CFP rankings (1:06)Paul Finebaum and Heather Dinich discuss how the CFP committee might react to Lane Kiffin’s uncertain future at Ole Miss. (1:06)
Paul Finebaum and Heather Dinich discuss how the CFP committee might react to Lane Kiffin’s uncertain future at Ole Miss. (1:06)
Jump to a conference: ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten SEC | Independent | Group of 5 Bracket
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Based on the committee’s fourth ranking, the seeding would be:
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Oregon No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Oregon winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ) No. 2 Indiana No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ) No. 4 Georgia