play1:05Is Dan Campbell’s offensive playcalling hurting Lions?Rex Ryan explains why Lions coach Dan Campbell needs veteran help with clock management.
play1:23Why Stephen A. doesn’t consider Chiefs game a must-win for CowboysStephen A. Smith explains why the Cowboys can lose to the Chiefs and run the table for the rest of their schedule.
play1:09Saturday: If Burrow is healthy, he should playJeff Saturday says the Bengals shouldn’t sit a healthy Joe Burrow even if the playoffs are out of reach.
How do the Chiefs beat the Cowboys? (2:07)Jeff Saturday, Dan Graziano, Domonique Foxworth and Jason McCourty give their keys to a Chiefs victory over the Cowboys. (2:07)
Is Dan Campbell’s offensive playcalling hurting Lions?Rex Ryan explains why Lions coach Dan Campbell needs veteran help with clock management.
Why Stephen A. doesn’t consider Chiefs game a must-win for CowboysStephen A. Smith explains why the Cowboys can lose to the Chiefs and run the table for the rest of their schedule.
Stephen A. Smith explains why the Cowboys can lose to the Chiefs and run the table for the rest of their schedule.
Saturday: If Burrow is healthy, he should playJeff Saturday says the Bengals shouldn’t sit a healthy Joe Burrow even if the playoffs are out of reach.
Jeff Saturday says the Bengals shouldn’t sit a healthy Joe Burrow even if the playoffs are out of reach.
The Week 13 schedule for the 2025 NFL season begins with a great slate of Thanksgiving Day matchups, and we have you covered for what should be an exciting holiday. According to ESPN Research, the average over/under point total of 51.2 is the highest for Thanksgiving games over the past 40 seasons. Buckle up.
What we’re hearing on the Packers: They are underdogs for the first time this season. They are the only team in the NFL that has been favored in each of their games heading into Week 13. The Packers have already won more division games (two) than they did all of last season, when they were swept by the Lions and Vikings and split with the Bears. — Rob Demovsky
What we’re hearing on the Lions: Detroit will be looking to get payback after its season-opening 27-13 loss at Lambeau Field. Coach Dan Campbell and his team are looking forward to another shot at facing their NFC North division rivals on Turkey Day, where the Lions lead the all-time series versus Green Bay 12-9-1. “We took a loss in Week 1, so it’s a divisional game,” edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson said. “This is as big as any game we’ll play in the regular season.” — Eric Woodyard
Stat the Packers are thankful for: Their defense has generated pressure 35% of the time this season, which is the sixth-highest rate in the league. That will be especially helpful against Lions quarterback Jared Goff, whose QBR has dropped by 69 points when he has faced pressure this season (most in the NFL).
Stat the Lions are thankful for: Running back Jahmyr Gibbs has been unstoppable since entering the NFL in 2023, and he has the chance to join rare company Thursday. With one touchdown, Gibbs would become the fifth player in NFL history to record 45 touchdowns (of any kind) within his first three NFL seasons. The other four are all Hall of Famers (Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, Gale Sayers and Earl Campbell). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Hutchinson will be held to two or fewer pass-rush wins. He has just a 13% pass rush win rate at edge this season — his pressure tends to come later in the play — and the Packers’ two offensive tackles both rank in the top 15 in pass block win rate at the position. — Walder
Fantasy nugget: Packers wide receiver Christian Watson is in a great spot against the Lions. He has quietly become the safest option in a Packers offense that ranks near the bottom of the league in pass attempts, clearing 45 receiving yards in every game since returning from injury and seeing at least four targets each week. Detroit has also allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Lions are 0-3 outright and against the spread when the line is between +3 and -3 this season. The Packers are 1-4 ATS on the road this season, and their past four road games have gone over the total. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Lions 34, Packers 24 Moody’s pick: Lions 30, Packers 27 Walder’s pick: Packers 23, Lions 17 FPI prediction: DET, 54% (by an average of 1.5 points)
Thanksgiving game memory for the Packers: Upsetting the Lions in 2023. With an apology to history — the 1962 game against the Lions might be the most significant even though it was the Packers’ only loss in a championship season — recency bias gives the nod to this game. The Packers were 8.5-point underdogs yet pulled off a 29-22 win. It was part of a closing stretch in which the Packers went 6-2 to make the playoffs after starting 3-6. — Demovsky
Thanksgiving game memory for the Lions: Lions top Bears 23-20 in 2024. After three straight Thanksgiving losses as coach of the Lions, Campbell finally ended the team’s seven-year holiday drought last season. With the win, the 11-1 Lions also got off to their best start in franchise history. For quarterback Goff, it was a “bucket list” moment, as he enjoyed a turkey leg following 221 passing yards and two touchdown passes. — Woodyard
Extra stuffing: Inside Hutchinson’s contract extension … Do Packers have 1-2 punch? … Gibbs has 264 yards in Lions’ OT victory … Parsons logs 5th straight 10-sack season
Is Dan Campbell’s offensive playcalling hurting Lions?
Rex Ryan explains why Lions coach Dan Campbell needs veteran help with clock management.
Stat the Chiefs are thankful for: They just broke their streak of not winning one-score games this season, defeating the Colts by a field goal in overtime despite trailing by 11 in the fourth quarter. Kansas City was 0-5 in one-score games this season after going an NFL-record 12-0 in them in 2024, including the playoffs. — ESPN Research
Stat the Cowboys are thankful for: Their offense has usually been at its best when establishing the run and working out of play-action. Quarterback Dak Prescott has the best QBR on play-action snaps this season, and he’s tied with the Rams’ Matthew Stafford for the most touchdown passes (13) on that play type. This Chiefs’ defense has allowed the worst completion rate (82%) and third-most yards per attempt (9.9) on play-action. — ESPN Research
Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 4-1 against the spread as underdogs this season, while the Chiefs are 1-4 ATS on the road (0-3 ATS in their past three). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Chiefs 20, Cowboys 13 Moody’s pick: Chiefs 27, Cowboys 23 Walder’s pick: Chiefs 36, Cowboys 28 FPI prediction: KC, 63.6% (by an average of 5.1 points)
Thanksgiving game memory for the Chiefs: Running back Marcus Allen passes Walter Payton in 1996. The Chiefs don’t have many fond memories on Thanksgiving, but Allen passed fellow Hall of Famer Walter Payton on the all-time rushing touchdowns list in Detroit. Allen recorded his 111th score on a 1-yard dive into the end zone in the first quarter. His performance, including 73 rushing yards and two touchdowns, helped the Chiefs rally for a 28-24 comeback victory over the Lions. — Taylor
Thanksgiving game memory for the Cowboys: Backup quarterback Clint Longley leads Cowboys to win over Washington in 1974. Longley’s comeback came out of nowhere. With Roger Staubach knocked out in the third quarter, the Cowboys trailed 23-17 with less than 30 seconds to play when Longley, known as the “Mad Bomber,” hit Drew Pearson for a 50-yard touchdown to defeat their rivals. — Archer
Extra stuffing: Pacheco targeting return vs. Cowboys … Guyton (ankle) likely out vs. Chiefs … Did Cowboys’ win set the table for a playoff run? … Jones captains late defensive charge … How Prescott’s initiative saved a Cowboys exec
Why Stephen A. doesn’t consider Chiefs game a must-win for Cowboys
What we’re hearing on the Bengals: Turnover margin is critical to the team’s success in AFC North play. Dating back to 2021, the Bengals are 13-14 in division play. Cincinnati has a plus-12 turnover margin in wins compared to minus-13 in losses. The same principle holds true for the Ravens and Steelers, too. But it will be especially important in stopping Baltimore. “Whoever takes the ball away is going to win,” safety Geno Stone said. — Ben Baby
Stat the Bengals are thankful for: Running back Chase Brown recorded his fifth straight game with over 100 scrimmage yards against the Patriots last week. That’s currently the longest active streak in the NFL and a welcome sign after he failed to cross that mark in the first six games of the season.
Stat the Ravens are thankful for: Quarterback Lamar Jackson might be 1-2 in prime-time games this season (won in Week 9 at the Dolphins), but he has a 21-7 record in such games for his career. Since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, the only quarterback with a better record in prime time is Hall of Famer Steve Young (minimum of 15 starts). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Ravens tight end Mark Andrews will record at least 50 receiving yards for just the second time this season. Twenty-seven percent of targets against the Bengals’ defense have gone to opposing tight ends, the highest rate in the league. — Walder
Fantasy nugget: The Bengals’ defense has been a fantasy goldmine for opponents all season. This is a dream matchup for managers with Jackson, Henry and Andrews, as Cincinnati allows the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the most to running backs and the most to tight ends. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Five straight meetings between these teams have gone over the total. Overs are 20-8 in Ravens games since last season, the highest rate in the NFL (7-4 this season). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Ravens 30, Bengals 23 Moody’s pick: Ravens 31, Bengals 28 Walder’s pick: Ravens 30, Bengals 23 FPI prediction: BAL, 68% (by an average of 7.2 points)
Thanksgiving game memory for the Bengals: Their only appearance in 2010. The Bengals are one of four teams with just one Thanksgiving game in their franchise history. That game at the Jets, a 26-10 loss, was full of eventual Hall of Famers (Terrell Owens, LaDainian Tomlinson, Darrelle Revis and Jason Taylor). — Baby