Aaron SchatzNov 27, 2025, 06:40 AM ETCloseAaron Schatz is an NFL analyst for ESPN.com. He has more than 20 years of experience working in NFL analytics and is the creator of the DVOA and DYAR metric. He also serves as the Chief Analytics Officer at FTN Network.Follow on X
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The Bengals have the NFL’s worst defense through 11 games since 1978
The Giants have the second-worst run defense through 12 games since 1978
The Patriots have the second-worst DVOA for a 10-2 team since 1978
The Bears have the worst DVOA for an 8-3 team since 1978
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is on pace to break the NFL record for receiving yards in a season
Christian McCaffrey is on pace to break the NFL record for receiving yards in a season by a RB
As we enter Week 13 of the 2025 NFL season, a few interesting trends are beginning to emerge — starting with one team playing on Thanksgiving night. The Bengals face the Ravens on Thursday, and they are currently allowing the league’s most points per game (32.7) and yards per game (415.8). But where does this defense rank historically?
I used my DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) stats, which are explained further here, to find out. I reran every season since 1978 to see what DVOA would have looked like as of Week 13 in the past. Teams are rated solely based on what they did through 11 or 12 games, and opponent adjustments are based only on opponents through 11 or 12 games.
The numbers showed that the 2025 season has two historically bad defenses in the Bengals and Giants and two more teams whose underlying stats don’t match the win-loss records in the Patriots and Bears. Two offensive playmakers also stand out, as Seahawks wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba and 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey are on pace to hit records. Let’s look at those four teams and two players as things stand right now.
Jump to: Bengals’ bad defense Giants’ bad run defense Patriots’ 10-2 record Bears’ 8-3 record Smith-Njigba | McCaffrey
A 48-10 loss to the Vikings in Week 3 was a big sign that all was not right with the Bengals defense. Since then, the Bengals have allowed over 30 points five more times and over 500 yards three times. And when you adjust for the season averages and look at the play-by-play breakdown, DVOA says the Bengals have the worst defense it has ever measured through 11 games. (Note that DVOA represents offensive efficiency, so defensive numbers are worse the higher they get.)
Standard stats also reflect how bad the Bengals have been on defense. They have allowed 6.3 yards per play, which is tied for the worst in the league this season. They are near the bottom of the league with just 10 takeaways. And their 32.7 points allowed per game is the second-worst figure since 1978 for a team through its first 11 games, trailing only the 1981 Baltimore Colts (34.3).
The differentiation between the Bengals and a team like the 1981 Colts is that Cincinnati has done this against an easy schedule of opposing offenses. The Bengals’ past schedule ranks 25th based on average offensive DVOA of their opponents. They allowed 502 yards to the Jets in Week 8. The Jets!
Defense tends to be less consistent and predictive than offense, which might give the Bengals hope that they can put a reasonable unit on the field in 2026. However, seven of the nine teams in the table above still ranked among the bottom 10 defenses the following season, with only the 2020 Dolphins rebounding to above average.
This one is a throwback to my look at early-season trends after Week 4. At that point, the Giants had the third-worst run defense ever tracked through four games. They’ve been up and down since then, but they gave up 219 yards and two touchdowns to Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs on just 15 carries in Week 12. That performance means they are now the worst run defense tracked by DVOA through 12 games in over 45 years — and the second worst in the history of the database.
The Giants’ problems on the ground started early, with Washington’s Jacory Croskey-Merritt running for 82 yards on just 10 carries in Week 1. They reached their nadir in Week 8 against the Eagles, when Saquon Barkley had 150 yards on 14 carries and Tank Bigsby had 104 yards on nine carries in his relief.
The Giants have allowed a remarkable 6.0 yards per carry when we remove scrambles, kneel-downs and aborted plays. That’s the highest figure in modern NFL history by half a yard. The 2002 Chargers allowed 5.5 yards per carry through their first 12 games, but the NFL as a whole allowed 4.5 yards per carry that season. This season, the league average is lower at 4.3.
The failure to stop the run comes across all three levels of the New York defense. It is currently 29th in run stop win rate, but the real damage comes from long runs. The Giants are last in second-level yards per carry (gains that come 5 to 10 yards past the line of scrimmage) and open-field yards per carry (gains that come 11 or more yards past the line of scrimmage).
What we can expect: New York’s run defense is probably going to look better over the last few weeks because the Giants play the second-easiest remaining schedule of opposing run offenses. On Monday night, they get the Patriots, who are just 28th in run offense DVOA. The Raiders, the Giants’ opponent in Week 17, rank last. But while the yards allowed per carry might go down over the final five games, DVOA will correct for that by adjusting for opponent.
The worst run defense DVOA over a full season belongs to the 1983 Oilers at 20.6%. Usually, like most stats, run defense DVOA is going to get drawn toward average with a larger sample size. But the Oilers were even worse in their final four games than they were in their first 12, so the Giants would have to be worse than that for the rest of the season to set a new record for the bad run defense. And they probably won’t be that bad under new defensive coordinator Charlie Bullen.
Adam Schefter and Rex Ryan react to the Giants’ decision to fire defensive coordinator Shane Bowen.
The Patriots are one of the best stories in the NFL this year. They currently hold the top spot in the AFC playoff race, having already won more games in 2025 than they did in 2023 and 2024 combined. So it’s a bit disappointing that the underlying stats say the Pats are not even close to being the best team in the league. In fact, DVOA has them 17th with a below-average rating. The only other 10-2 team to have a below-average DVOA was the 2022 Vikings. That team lost in the wild-card round.
However, the Patriots have been very healthy this season, and that has changed in the past couple of weeks. They’re going to have to play the next few games without some of their top players, including rookie left tackle Will Campbell (knee) and veteran defensive tackle Milton Williams (ankle).
Orlovsky to McAfee: Ben Johnson’s playbook is wide open with Caleb Williams
The good news is that some of the other teams with low DVOA ratings at 10-2 improved over the last few games and went on significant playoff runs. That includes a team that Patriots fans know well: their 2003 squad, which was dragged down in all metrics by a 31-0 loss to the Bills in Week 1 but ended up winning the Super Bowl.
After the team went 5-12 in 2024, new coach Ben Johnson has worked wonders with the Bears’ offense, helping Chicago to an 8-3 record and first place in the NFC North. Nothing can take away the wins, but DVOA suggests that the Bears’ success might be a mirage. Chicago currently ranks just 22nd in DVOA and has the lowest DVOA ever measured for an 8-3 team. The record was previously held by another Chicago team: the 2010 squad that lost to Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game.
Chicago might be eighth in points scored per game (26.3), but DVOA puts the offense closer to average at 14th. The defense ranks 25th and the special teams unit ranks 22nd. Remarkably, the Bears are 8-3 despite being outscored by opponents on the season (292-289). Chicago is currently 6-1 in games decided by less than a touchdown, including all four games in its current streak of four straight wins.
Bears fans will point out that the team looks a lot better in points scored and allowed without the 52-21 loss to Detroit in Week 2 rolled in. However, DVOA doesn’t think that was the only really bad game for the 2025 Bears. They have three games this season with DVOA under minus-50% — the Week 2 loss to Detroit, a narrow Week 4 win over the Raiders and the Week 8 loss to the Ravens. Only Las Vegas (five) and Tennessee (four) have more games below minus-50% this season.
As with the Patriots, schedule strength is also playing a big role in Chicago’s low DVOA rating. The Bears have played the second-easiest schedule so far this season. The average past Bears opponent has a DVOA of minus-9.9%. If their average opponent was ranked among NFL teams, it would rank 23rd.
What we can expect: Even the worst 8-3 teams usually make it to the postseason. But with so many competitive rosters in the NFC North and NFC West, it’s going to be harder for this Bears team. ESPN’s Football Power Index simulations have them making the playoffs 62% of the time, which ranks eighth in the NFC. The Bears might end up on the outside looking in while a team from the NFC South with a worse record is playing in January.