Bill ConnellyNov 27, 2025, 08:55 AM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Follow on X
play2:32Marcotti: Kompany didn’t have an answer for Arteta’s Arsenal tacticsGab & Juls react to Arsenal’s 3-1 win over Bayern Munich in the Champions League.
play2:49Marcotti: You can’t blame everything on Arne SlotGab Marcotti and Julien Laurens react to Liverpool’s shocking 4-1 defeat to PSV Eindhoven in the UEFA Champions League.
play1:45Burley: Mbappé the ‘saving grace’ for Xabi Alonso & Real MadridCraig Burley and Stewart Robson discuss Real Madrid’s struggles following Kylian Mbappé’s impressive performance during their 4-3 win vs. Olympiacos.
Burley: Arsenal the ‘real deal’ after unbeaten UCL run (1:16)Craig Burley reacts to Arsenal’s 3-1 win vs. Bayern Munich to sit top of the Champions League table. (1:16)
Marcotti: Kompany didn’t have an answer for Arteta’s Arsenal tacticsGab & Juls react to Arsenal’s 3-1 win over Bayern Munich in the Champions League.
Marcotti: You can’t blame everything on Arne SlotGab Marcotti and Julien Laurens react to Liverpool’s shocking 4-1 defeat to PSV Eindhoven in the UEFA Champions League.
Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens react to Liverpool’s shocking 4-1 defeat to PSV Eindhoven in the UEFA Champions League.
Burley: Mbappé the ‘saving grace’ for Xabi Alonso & Real MadridCraig Burley and Stewart Robson discuss Real Madrid’s struggles following Kylian Mbappé’s impressive performance during their 4-3 win vs. Olympiacos.
Craig Burley and Stewart Robson discuss Real Madrid’s struggles following Kylian Mbappé’s impressive performance during their 4-3 win vs. Olympiacos.
Eight goals in Paris. Seven in Piraeus. Five in Copenhagen and Liverpool. Four at the Emirates (and in Cyprus!). Wednesday’s Champions League action gave us 42 goals in nine matches, complementing a surprising but not particularly prolific Tuesday of action and providing something for everyone.
So let’s take a look ahead to what’s left in the competition, and then let’s do what we do after each matchday: Rank teams!
Here’s what the table currently looks like, with each team’s points and goal differential, plus their odds of both advancing to the knockout rounds and winning the title, per Opta’s supercomputer.
Seventeen teams have odds of 95% or greater to advance, per Opta, and four (Arsenal, Bayern, PSG and Real Madrid) are at least 83% likely to earn a top-eight finish and a bye to the round of 16.
Manchester City at Real Madrid (Dec. 10). Any finals rematch is going to be big regardless, as is a Pep Guardiola vs. Xabi Alonso coaching showdown. And with City having dropped points on multiple occasions — they’ve been on quite the “two steps forward, one step back” ascent this year — their place in the top eight is far from certain.
Liverpool at Inter Milan (Dec. 9). Not only have Liverpool lost nine of their past 12, but they’ve also lost their past three by a combined 10-1. If they can’t rebound against West Ham and Leeds in league play, is Arne Slot even still Liverpool manager when they visit the San Siro?
Ajax at Qarabag (Dec. 10). Qarabag have been one of the more exciting stories of the league phase, but their one-sided 2-0 loss to Napoli was quite a reality check. They need points from this matchup against pointless Ajax, or else their odds of advancing might take a sharp turn.
Atletico Madrid at PSV Eindhoven (Dec. 9). Two of the streakiest — and, when they’re on, most enjoyable — teams in this competition seem destined to finish ranked in the teens (and perhaps face off in the playoff round). I’m putting this one on the list because it could just be fun.
Marcotti: Kompany didn’t have an answer for Arteta’s Arsenal tactics
Gab & Juls react to Arsenal’s 3-1 win over Bayern Munich in the Champions League.
Arsenal at Inter Milan (Jan. 20). Inter fell late against Atletico Madrid on Wednesday, but they’ve still been among the steadiest teams in the competition, and they’re typically as defensively sturdy as anyone in this competition not named Arsenal. Different kind of test for the Gunners, who have aced every test thus far.
Liverpool at Marseille (Jan. 21). Another tricky away trip for Liverpool. Marseille aren’t incredibly consistent, but they looked excellent beating Newcastle on Tuesday, and they did nearly beat Real Madrid in Matchday 1.
Chelsea at Napoli (Jan. 28). Chelsea have won nine of 11 overall and handled Barcelona with surprising ease Tuesday. We’ll see how hot they are two months from now, but they could be positioning themselves for a great seed, and Napoli should still be jockeying for position, though perhaps only in the teens, as well.
Newcastle at PSG (Jan. 28) and Inter Milan at Borussia Dortmund (Jan. 28). Two games with top-eight stakes.
(Note: These rankings are based on my personal opinions for where teams stand at the moment: it’s not intended to directly reflect the current table.)
1. Arsenal: Bayern were the second-best team in the competition to date, and Arsenal absolutely steamrolled them.
– Shots: Arsenal 12, Bayern 8 – xG: Arsenal 2.7, Bayern 0.7 – Post-shot xG for shots on target: Arsenal 3.5, Bayern 0.5 – High turnovers forced: Arsenal 9, Bayern 2
Arsenal gave Bayern as much of the ball as they wanted (60% possession), and they couldn’t do anything with it outside of a beautiful Lennart Karl goal.
2. Bayern Munich: Actually, I’m keeping Bayern here. I would still pick them against anyone else right now; I just think Arsenal are on a different level at the moment. We’ll see if they can keep it up.
3. Paris Saint-Germain: Their Wednesday performance against Spurs wasn’t great, but they got the job done.
Actually, I should rephrase: Vitinha (three goals on five shots, plus a team-leading 26 combined progressive passes and carries and seven ball recoveries) was great. Vitinha got the job done.
4. Chelsea (up 7 from last rankings): They were fortunate Barcelona didn’t go up early, but once the visitors missed their shot, Chelsea took control. And my goodness, Estêvão.
5. Inter Milan (up 1): No big shame in losing at Atletico, especially in a match in which they had more shots (17-15) and created more xG (1.36-0.98). Atleti kept Hakan Çalhanoglu mostly quiet in the creation department (one long-range shot attempt, zero chances created, a good-not-great seven progressive passes), which doesn’t usually happen.
Burley: Mbappé the ‘saving grace’ for Xabi Alonso & Real Madrid
6. Real Madrid (up 1): I long to live in a world in which Olympiacos is capable of being Real Madrid’s equal from time to time, and they were in Piraeus on Wednesday, attempting more shots (18-15) and creating equal xG (1.69-1.68). Real Madrid needed all four of Kylian Mbappé’s goals — including three in a seven-minute span — to take the three points. This was very fun to watch.
None of it was fun for Real Madrid, mind you. Disappointing stuff from them. (Plus, Eduardo Camavinga had to leave injured.) But it was good fun for us.
7. Manchester City (down 3): Pep Guardiola rotated nearly his entire lineup against Bayer Leverkusen, and they still controlled the ball (55% possession) while also creating more solid opportunities. But they couldn’t put the ball in the net, and 25 minutes from Erling Haaland at the end couldn’t save them. A missed opportunity in a bad week.
8. Borussia Dortmund (up 6): Villarreal haven’t been very good in this competition, but BVB dominated them on Tuesday: Not even including two penalty attempts, they attempted four shots worth at least 0.28 xG and eight worth at least 0.11. Villarreal managed just one decent attempt all game. This was a deserved 4-0 win, and Dortmund’s hopes for a top-eight finish remain very much alive.
9. Newcastle (down 1): Dominated the first 10 minutes against Marseille and then completely (and perhaps inexcusably) ceded control of the ball and the match until the late stages.
10. Atletico Madrid (up 3): It might not have been the most prolific match on Wednesday, but it had the most exciting ending.
11. Tottenham Hotspur (down 2): Three days after Arsenal wiped the floor with them, Spurs actually showed well against PSG, creating very similar levels of shot quality (xG: PSG 1.85, Spurs 1.79) and getting two goals and an assist from former PSG man Randal Kolo Muani. Great stuff.
Only, PSG finished even better, and that was that. Spurs are probably destined for a ranking in the teens now.
12. Barcelona (down 2): Chelsea certainly took advantage of Barcelona’s high defensive line at times (and Barca kept the high-wire act going after Ronald Araújo’s red card), but this wasn’t the typical Hansi Flick loss. Barca managed only 53% possession and three shot attempts even before the red card; after Ferran Torres missed a great opportunity (0.57 xG) after a high turnover in the sixth minute, Barca just didn’t offer enough.
13. Atalanta (up 2): They haven’t won since September in Serie A, but they haven’t lost in the Champions League since September either. Odd season. Either way, they created nonstop chances in Wednesday’s 3-0 win over Eintracht — not only did they score three times, they hit the post three times as well.
15. Liverpool (down 10): Wednesday’s loss to PSV was the encapsulation of everything that has been going wrong at Anfield. They were too error-prone and wide open in defense, Mohamed Salah was invisible (one shot worth 0.03 xG and only one ball recovery in 90 minutes), and everyone else suffered from horrifically poor finishing. They attempted 27 shots worth 2.43 xG, and only Dominik Szoboszlai’s 16th-minute rebound effort went in the net.
16. Sporting CP: Eighteen-year-old Geovany Quenda had a goal and an assist, and Sporting absolutely sliced and diced a really sound Club Brugge team, 3-0. While it might be tough for them to hold onto a top-eight spot with upcoming games against Bayern and PSG, they’re all but certain to advance, and they’re growing into the competition nicely.
17. Bayer Leverkusen (up 1): Great finishing from Alejandro Grimaldo and Patrik Schick allowed Leverkusen to punish Manchester City for playing a rotated squad — it wasn’t their fault they only had to face Haaland for 25 minutes (and Jérémy Doku and Phil Foden for 45), but they took full advantage.