Booger McFarland: Ohio State physically dominated Michigan (0:45)Booger McFarland praises Ohio State for the Buckeyes’ physical domination of Michigan. (0:45)
What else can explain the Tide’s wild, playoff-saving, SEC title game-clinching, penalty-laden win against rival Auburn on Saturday night?
While bubble teams such as Miami and Texas were hoping for chaos, 11 of the committee’s top-12 teams won during Rivalry Week, leaving Texas A&M the lone team to drop in this week’s projection.
With the exception of teams that will play for their respective conference championship games, the résumés are complete. Though there likely will be some shuffling after the conference championship games, the fifth and penultimate ranking Tuesday night will be the best indicator all season of which teams should feel comfortable heading into Selection Day — and which might need some help.
Why they could be here: This is where the selection committee has had the Buckeyes in each of its first four rankings, and beating No. 15 Michigan will further cement their place at the top. It was only Ohio State’s second win against a CFP top-25 opponent, along with the season-opening win against Texas, but the committee has been wowed by Ohio State’s talent and consistent dominance.
Why they could be lower: It wouldn’t make sense for the committee to drop the Buckeyes after beating a ranked rival on the road when Indiana defeated a 2-10 Purdue team 56-3. After Texas A&M’s loss to Texas on Friday night, though, Indiana entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, but Ohio State was No. 1 in game control. The Buckeyes have the lowest schedule strength (No. 54) of the top contenders, except Texas Tech (No. 57).
Need to know: Given that Ohio State is entering the Big Ten title game undefeated, it still has a strong chance of finishing in the top four with a first-round bye, even if it loses to Indiana. The top four seeds are no longer reserved for conference champions.
Up next: Ohio State will face Indiana in the Big Ten championship game Dec. 6 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Why they could be here: This is where the committee has had the Hoosiers for four straight weeks — looking up at No. 1 Ohio State — and a lopsided win against Purdue is unlikely to change that. The Hoosiers’ best win was Oct. 11 at Oregon, and it remains their lone victory against a CFP top-25 opponent.
Why they could be higher: It would be surprising if the committee flipped Ohio State and Indiana at this point — not to mention difficult to justify — but if the Hoosiers win the Big Ten championship game, it’s an easy move. Indiana entered Saturday leading the nation in total efficiency — just a percentage point ahead of Ohio State — and is No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric.
Need to know: No two teams in the country have better chances of earning the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye, according to ESPN Analytics. Indiana leads the country with a 99.7% chance to earn a bye, followed by the Buckeyes at 96.8%. Because the Hoosiers will enter the conference title game undefeated, they still have a strong chance of finishing in the top four, even with a loss.
Up next: Indiana will face Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game Dec. 6 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Why they could be here: The committee will likely bump the Bulldogs up a spot after their win against rival Georgia Tech, and Texas A&M’s loss to Texas. Georgia also played Texas, and the Bulldogs beat the Longhorns soundly 35-10. The committee would consider that common opponent along with Georgia’s wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech, though the Jackets could fall out of the CFP top 25 this week.
Why they could be lower: Georgia entered Saturday ranked outside the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency, and has trailed in several games this season. Against Georgia Tech, quarterback Gunner Stockton completed 11 of 21 passes for only 70 yards and an interception.
Need to know: Georgia’s win against Georgia Tech was critical because it gives the Bulldogs some margin for error in the SEC championship game if the Bulldogs finish as a two-loss runner-up. Georgia’s only regular-season loss was by three points to Alabama on Sept. 27. If the Bulldogs lose a close game to the Tide again, the committee would have a hard time ignoring the head-to-head results, which means Georgia would lose its first-round bye, but not its place in the playoff.
Up next: Georgia will face Alabama in the SEC championship game Dec. 6 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Why they could be lower: The Aggies have entered the one-loss debate, and how far they fall will be one of the biggest questions for the committee this week. Texas Tech has the worst loss (to Arizona State) of any of the one-loss contenders. The Red Raiders also trail the Aggies, Oregon and Ole Miss in strength of record and strength of schedule, according to ESPN Analytics.
Need to know: Texas Tech’s chance at a first-round bye depends on whether it wins the Big 12 title. The Red Raiders will face BYU in the Big 12 championship game and should feel secure in their playoff place, whether they win or lose. The victory over WVU gives them a cushion to earn a CFP spot even as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up. Nobody else in the country could claim a regular-season win against the eventual Big 12 champs in that scenario.
Up next: Texas Tech will face BYU in the Big 12 title game Dec. 6 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
Why they could be higher: The committee has a lot of respect for the Aggies’ four road wins. The Aggies entered the weekend with a noticeable edge over Texas Tech in strength of record (23 to 56) and strength of schedule (1 to 10). It’s possible the committee drops the Aggies only one spot, flipping them with Georgia, which means they’d still be in position to earn a first-round bye as the No. 4 seed.
Need to know: The top-four seeds and first-round byes are no longer reserved for conference champions, so it’s still possible for Texas A&M — or another at-large team — to earn a first-round bye without winning its league.
Up next: The Aggies have been knocked out of the SEC championship game, and will wait for Selection Day.
Why they could be higher: It would be a bit surprising to see the Aggies fall as far as No. 7, but some committee members could reward the Rebels for their win against No. 8 Oklahoma more than the Aggies’ win against No. 9 Notre Dame. Some could also argue that the Aggies’ loss to Texas is worse than the Rebels’ loss to Georgia. The Bulldogs hosted both schools, but beat the Rebels 45-35 and the Longhorns 35-10.
Why they could be here: The Sooners’ defense continues to play at an elite level, helping compensate for what OU has been lacking on offense. Oklahoma has found ways to win all month, including back-to-back road wins at Tennessee and Alabama. The loss to Ole Miss will keep them behind the Rebels, but the setback against Texas is still likely to be overcome because the Longhorns have a third loss.
Why they could be lower: Oklahoma ranked No. 48 in offensive efficiency heading into Saturday — a glaring discrepancy from the other CFP contenders. The Sooners are No. 101 in the country with 128.2 rushing yards per game, and the selection committee has noted flaws like that. They have done it with Alabama this year, pointing out the Tide’s inability to run the ball since its season-opening loss to FSU.
Need to know: Notre Dame isn’t a lock for the CFP, though it would be difficult to imagine the Irish being excluded. If Alabama wins the SEC, though, and jumps Notre Dame, the Irish could be in danger of being excluded if two Big 12 teams are in. That could happen if BYU beats Texas Tech and both teams finish in the top 10. That would mean a team currently ranked in the top 10 would have to be excluded to make room for BYU to move in.
Up next: Alabama will face Georgia in the SEC championship game on Dec. 6 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Why they could be here: The Cougars’ lone loss was at Texas Tech, which could be a top-four team on Tuesday. The double overtime road win at Arizona looks a little better with the Wildcats’ win against rival Arizona State this week, and the committee will continue to value the 24-21 win against Utah. BYU entered Saturday ranked No. 7 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric and No. 6 in total efficiency.
Why they could be lower: The committee could reward Miami for its convincing 38-7 win against No. 22 Pitt, and the Canes’ win against No. 9 Notre Dame trumps anything on BYU’s résumé. BYU also hasn’t been as consistently dominant as Miami, ranking 14 in Game Control compared to Miami at No. 6 entering Week 14.
Up next: BYU will face Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game on Dec. 6 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
Why they could be higher: Miami has scored at least 34 points in each of its past four games, but No. 12 is probably the Canes’ ceiling, given there weren’t upsets immediately above them. Entering Saturday, Miami was also a notch below Notre Dame in ESPN’s Strength of Record, Game Control and Strength of Schedule metrics. The Canes (No. 47) are also significantly behind Alabama (No. 10) in strength of schedule.
Need to know: Virginia and Duke will play for the ACC title, so Miami’s only path to the playoff is now through an at-large bid. The committee isn’t ignoring the Canes’ head-to-head win against Notre Dame, but they’re also not only comparing Miami to the Irish. The Canes also need to earn an edge against Alabama and BYU — two teams the committee has deemed better than Miami to this point.
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ) No. 2 Indiana No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ) No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders brought the sledgehammer down on West Virginia — in the first half — and could get a bump into the top four after Texas A&M lost to Texas. The committee has been impressed this season with the Red Raiders’ consistent dominance, ranking No. 2 in the country with an average points margin of 30.4 points per game. Texas Tech is No. 3 in the country with an average of 42 points per game while holding its opponents to 12.27 points per game, No. 3 in the country.