Barnwell's end of the year prove-it list: 17 NFL coaches and players with something at stake

play2:21Can Stephen A. see the Cowboys winning the NFC East over the Eagles?Heading into Week 14, Stephen A. Smith explains why the Eagles will hold off the Cowboys for the NFC East title.

play1:45Stephen A.: Shedeur Sanders should start the rest of the seasonStephen A. Smith breaks down why the Browns should start Shedeur Sanders at quarterback for the rest of the season.

play2:19Stephen A.: Eagles are ‘coming apart at the seams’Stephen A. Smith explains why he believes the Eagles’ Week 13 loss was worse than the Rams’ loss to the Panthers.

play0:57Why Field Yates is still confident in Matthew Stafford for Week 14Field Yates breaks down Matthew Stafford’s fantasy Week 13 performance and outlook against the Cardinals in Week 14.

Saturday: Colts’ loss to Texans is a bad sign (0:49)Jeff Saturday and Domonique Foxworth explain why the Colts’ loss to the Texans is troubling amid injuries. (0:49)

Can Stephen A. see the Cowboys winning the NFC East over the Eagles?Heading into Week 14, Stephen A. Smith explains why the Eagles will hold off the Cowboys for the NFC East title.

Heading into Week 14, Stephen A. Smith explains why the Eagles will hold off the Cowboys for the NFC East title.

Stephen A.: Shedeur Sanders should start the rest of the seasonStephen A. Smith breaks down why the Browns should start Shedeur Sanders at quarterback for the rest of the season.

Stephen A. Smith breaks down why the Browns should start Shedeur Sanders at quarterback for the rest of the season.

Stephen A.: Eagles are ‘coming apart at the seams’Stephen A. Smith explains why he believes the Eagles’ Week 13 loss was worse than the Rams’ loss to the Panthers.

Stephen A. Smith explains why he believes the Eagles’ Week 13 loss was worse than the Rams’ loss to the Panthers.

Why Field Yates is still confident in Matthew Stafford for Week 14Field Yates breaks down Matthew Stafford’s fantasy Week 13 performance and outlook against the Cardinals in Week 14.

Field Yates breaks down Matthew Stafford’s fantasy Week 13 performance and outlook against the Cardinals in Week 14.

I’m going to break down the players and coaches with the most to gain or lose by virtue of what happens over the rest of the regular season and into the playoffs. Everyone wants to win a ring and get some good play on film, of course, but there are guys around the league who aren’t quite locked in their roles or their deals. Let’s run through the players and coaches who can change their paths with strong finishes.

That has fallen by the wayside. Buffalo’s lengthy streak of almost entirely turnover-free football came to an end in September, and since its Week 5 loss to the Patriots, the Bills have turned the ball over 16 times in eight games, doubling their full season total from 2024. The Bills are eighth in EPA since that Patriots game, essentially tied with the Bears and Giants.

After missing all of 2024 as he recovered from a torn ACL, Chubb signed a unique deal with the Dolphins for the 2025 season. While the Dolphins didn’t want to pay Chubb the $19.5 million he was owed on his prior deal, the sides agreed to keep his existing contract in 2026 and 2027 but essentially replaced the 2025 compensation with a one-year deal worth $8.8 million. Chubb had the ability to earn another $11 million via incentives, of which he’s currently on pace to earn over $7 million.

Chubb is having a solid season for a Dolphins team that has been frustrating on defense. The 29-year-old has racked up six sacks and 14 quarterback hits while playing 71% of the defensive snaps. Crucially, he has stayed healthy and is on pace to play his first full NFL season since his rookie year in 2018.

In recent years, Jerry Jones has been remarkably and uncharacteristically patient with his head coaches, but he hasn’t extended those same courtesies to his defensive coordinators. Mike Nolan was one-and-done with the Cowboys in 2020, while Mike Zimmer followed Mike McCarthy out the door after one season with Big D in 2024. Before them, the late Monte Kiffin lasted one year as defensive coordinator in 2013 before being demoted to an assistant role, with Rod Marinelli taking over instead.

Can Stephen A. see the Cowboys winning the NFC East over the Eagles?

Barring something truly unexpected, Jones will be back as the starting quarterback in Indianapolis next season. For the second time in four years, though, his organization needs to decide whether it wants to keep Jones around with a long-term deal or instead use the franchise tag to retain him. In spring 2023, the Giants chose to tag Saquon Barkley and sign Jones to a long-term extension, decisions they would quickly come to regret.

Sanders is already ahead of most other fifth-round rookie quarterbacks by virtue of getting a chance to play. He had to bide his time as part of what was once a four-quarterback battle in training camp, but with Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco traded and Dillon Gabriel injured, the door opened for Sanders, who won his first NFL start against the Raiders in Week 12. Most Day 3 quarterbacks finish their NFL careers without starting a game, let alone winning one.

Stephen A.: Shedeur Sanders should start the rest of the season

Is Sanders going to do enough with those snaps to convince the Browns that he should be their long-term quarterback? Probably not, given where he was drafted and how he has played so far. Adequately running an NFL offense over the rest of 2025, though, might be the difference between Sanders quickly washing out of the league or getting an extended run as a backup and occasional spot starter.

Things haven’t really come together in 2025 for Hendrickson, who spent much of the offseason holding out and/or requesting a trade from the Bengals. After agreeing to a short-term deal to return to the team in late-August, Hendrickson racked up four sacks in seven games before suffering a hip injury. The Bengals didn’t put their star defender on injured reserve, suggesting that they expected him back within a matter of weeks, but he has now missed five games and has no timetable for returning.

The Bengals didn’t move Hendrickson during the offseason or at the trade deadline, and now, it seems likely that they won’t get anything (outside of a potential compensatory pick) for their best defensive player. There just isn’t a great trade market for even the best defenders on the wrong side of 30, and while Hendrickson was incredibly valuable in 2024 (a second straight 17.5-sack season), his 2025 campaign is an example of how tricky aging curves can be to project.

Chaisson’s solid 2024 campaign has given way to a significantly impactful 2025 season in New England. A first-round pick of the Jaguars in 2020, Chaisson has 6.5 sacks and 15 knockdowns, including a pressure past Orlando Brown Jr. on fourth-and-game to seal a win over the Bengals two weeks ago. Chaisson’s 5.4% quick pressure rate, per NFL Next Gen Stats, ranks 18th among edge rushers with 150 snaps or more.

When I was putting together the preseason version of this column, I included McCarthy as one of the candidates and suggested that a disappointing season for the rookie could lead the Vikings to bring in a veteran to compete with the 2024 first-round pick in 2026. That might be the best-case scenario for McCarthy right now.

We’ve still seen only six starts from McCarthy, and there are plenty of eventually successful quarterbacks who didn’t look very good during the first six games of their careers. Then again, many of those signal-callers weren’t taking over 13-win teams, and the Vikings could be back in the playoff hunt in 2026 if they merely land a passer the caliber of Sam Darnold or Daniel Jones in free agency.

If McCarthy returns from his concussion and shows signs of growth over the final month of the season, the Vikings should field competition for their starting job in camp next year. If he continues to look overmatched upon his return to the lineup, though, the Vikings might move forward with a new plan at quarterback, consigning McCarthy to a backup role after just a handful of pro starts.

Newsome has had an uneven start in Jacksonville, opening with Jaxon Smith-Njigba running past him for a touchdown in his Jags debut. He has allowed a 124.7 passer rating in coverage with the Jags, which would be up from his prior career worst of 112.5 in 2024. Newsome missed most of the Jaguars’ Week 11 win over the Chargers because of an ankle injury and was seemingly benched on defense during the second half of the Week 12 victory in Arizona, playing only special teams after the break.

Talented young cornerbacks are hard to come by, and Newsome turned 25 in May, so there would have been a significant market for him if he had delivered a rebound season in Jacksonville. There’s still an opportunity for him to establish himself as someone in line for a multiyear deal, but it looks like Newsome might need to settle for a one-year prove-it deal to try to put better play on film in 2026.

Do the Eagles value Davis? Sure. He has been a useful defensive tackle since joining the organization, playing a key role on early downs against the run while forming a stiff 1-2 punch with fellow first-rounder Jalen Carter. The Eagles picked up Davis’ fifth-year option after their Super Bowl run in 2024, and Davis quickly responded by winning the team a critical contest in the NFC this season by blocking a last-second field goal attempt by the Rams and returning it for a game-sealing touchdown.

Davis has had more splash plays this season, and he has managed a career-high three sacks, although those were all on snaps in which he chased down a scrambling quarterback. Playing more than 50% of the snaps for the first time as a pro, Davis is clearly a good player. Coming off a game in which the Eagles allowed the Bears to run for a whopping 281 yards, though, a defensive collapse would hurt Davis’ chances of landing a contract more in line with that of a great player this offseason.

And while Gannon’s defense struggled during his first two years in Arizona, the Cardinals have improved to 15th in EPA per play on defense this season. They’ve done that with multiple starting cornerbacks injured for extended periods of time and without first-round pick Walter Nolen III — who looks like he’ll be a star at the pro level — for the first half of the season.

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