Mike ClayDec 4, 2025, 10:11 AM ETCloseMike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on “Fantasy Football Now” and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.Follow on X
Mike Clay: Justin Jefferson the only Vikings WR lineup lock in Week 14 (0:35)Daniel Dopp and Mike Clay discuss the fantasy outlooks for Justin Jefferson and the rest of the Vikings’ receivers heading into Week 14. (0:35)
Welcome to The Playbook for Week 14, which kicks off Thursday night with the Dallas Cowboys at the Detroit Lions.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance each week.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
DAL-DET | SEA-ATL | CIN-BUF | TEN-CLE | WAS-MIN | MIA-NYJ | NO-TB IND-JAX | PIT-BAL | DEN-LV| CHI-GB| LAR-ARI | HOU-KC| PHI-LAC
Lineup locks: Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jameson Williams, Jake Ferguson
Even with recent reinforcements, Dallas has surrendered 40-plus fantasy points to the Eagles’ and Chiefs’ WR rooms over the past two weeks. With St. Brown and Kalif Raymond sidelined, TeSlaa and Kennedy make for flex lottery tickets, though both will be risky considering neither has reached 12 fantasy points in any game this season.
Goalline work aside, Kenneth Walker III remains Seattle’s lead back, which will continue to limit Charbonnet to nothing more than an extremely TD-dependent flex with slightly more value in non-PPR formats. On the plus side, both backs get a boost this week against a Falcons defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs.
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, James Cook III, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Dalton Kincaid
Kincaid has yet to clear six targets in any game, but he has been bailed out by touchdowns (four in eight games) and will have a real shot to add to that total in this game. If Kincaid remains out, Dawson Knox will be an intriguing Week 14 sleeper, though his underwhelming usage and production (yet to clear four targets or 37 yards in a game this season) adds some risk.
Fantasy scoop: Harold Fannin Jr. has all but taken over as Cleveland’s clear No. 1 tight end. After playing similar snaps to David Njoku during Weeks 1-11, Fannin has out-snapped his veteran counterpart 98-53 over the past two weeks and leads the Browns with 11 targets during that span (Njoku has only two). Fannin has handled a target share of at least 20% in seven consecutive games and sits no lower than eighth at the position in targets and catches on the season.
Of course, with Cleveland struggling to generate consistent offense, Fannin has been limited to three touchdowns (including one this past weekend) and sits 16th at the position in fantasy PPG. Tennessee has been good against tight ends (only two have reached 12 points against them), so Fannin should be viewed as no more than a fringe starting option this week.
Shadow Report: Cleveland’s wide receivers have a very appealing rest-of-season schedule, starting this week against a Titans defense that has allowed the eighth-most catches, second-most yards and seventh-most fantasy points to the position. Tennessee has surrendered the highest catch rate (70%) and third-highest yards per target (9.5) to receivers.
An opposing wideout has scored 15-plus fantasy points in each of the Titans’ past five games (Jaxon Smith-Njigba 37.1, Nico Collins 24.2, Michael Pittman Jr 23.5, Jakobi Meyers 21.3, Quentin Johnston 15.3). Top Cleveland receiver Jerry Jeudy has been tough to count on (under 12 fantasy points in 11 of 12 games), but we’re not afraid of probable Darrell Baker Jr. shadow coverage, and this matchup is enough to make Jeudy a viable flex flier in deep leagues.
Fantasy scoop: Chris Rodriguez Jr. has overtaken Jacory Croskey-Merritt as the lead rusher in Washington. Rodriguez ran for 41 yards and one TD on 11 carries Sunday night after posting a 15-79-0 rushing line the week prior. Rodriguez has found the end zone in four of his past six games, though he has yet to clear 12.5 fantasy points in any game this season. The reason? A near-complete lack of receiving work. Rodriguez has a grand total of 6 yards on two targets this season.
The 2023 sixth-round pick has proved to be a solid rusher (career 4.7 YPC), but he remains in a committee with Croskey-Merritt and passing-down specialist Jeremy McNichols. Rodriguez is the top fantasy option of the trio and could see added volume this week (Minnesota has faced a league-high 329 RB carries this season), but he’s no more than a low-ceiling flex option.
The heavy usage of Mitchell and Metchie (who had eight targets but only 19 yards on Sunday) is enough to vault them both into the flex discussion and to make them appealing in DFS (Mitchell is valued at $4,600 and Metchie $4,500 this week), but inconsistent efficiency makes both boom/bust options.
Bucs RBs are set up with one of the league’s easiest remaining schedules, which locks in Irving as a viable RB1 option moving forward, including in Week 14 against a Saints defense that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to the position. White and Tucker should revert to your bench or waivers.
The script may call for more passing this week in what projects as a tighter game against a good Colts team, which is good news for Meyers’ fantasy outlook. On the other hand, he’ll need to battle now-healthy Brian Thomas Jr. and Brenton Strange for targets against a solid Colts defense. Meyers is trending up but is best viewed as a WR3/flex.
Flowers, who sits 10th among receivers in receptions, is set up with a good Week 14 matchup. Pittsburgh has allowed the most catches and yards as well as the second-most fantasy points to WRs. So despite the concerns, Flowers remains on the WR2 radar.
Bryant isn’t yet worthy of lineup consideration (he has yet to clear 13.2 fantasy points in a game), but he’s a fine bench stash and DFS option ($3,400). Franklin, meanwhile, has hit for the occasional big game this season, but he has also been held below 13 points nine times and any dip in usage would be crushing to his flex appeal. He’s a risky Week 14 flex, even in a plus matchup against the Raiders.
Fantasy scoop: Has Christian Watson returned to the top of the Packers’ WR depth chart? Recent usage suggests the answer is yes, as his 22 targets are seven more than any of his teammates over the past three games. The heavy usage, which included a career-high 10 targets on Thanksgiving, has allowed two 18-plus-point efforts over the past three weeks.
Watson has produced a respectable 45-plus yards in all six appearances this season and leads the NFL with 648 air yards since his Week 8 return. It’s possible he’ll see a dip in target share once Matthew Golden and Jayden Reed return (which could come this week), but the good news is that he has a plus matchup against a Chicago defense that has allowed the third-most touchdowns (16) to receivers this season. Watson is a fine WR3.
Lineup locks: Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride
Especially with Jacoby Brissett remaining under center (as opposed to low-pass-volume Kyler Murray), there’s reason to believe Wilson can remain in the WR3/flex mix. That includes this week against the Rams, especially with Harrison likely to be shadowed. Speaking of which …
Schultz’s heavy usage could be even higher this week with Houston likely to be throwing the ball plenty in what projects as a competitive game against the Chiefs. He’s a fine TE1 and could pay off in a big way down the stretch with a bit of regression to the mean in the scoring department.
Shadow Report: Downgrade Kansas City’s receivers against an elite Houston defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to the position, as well as the second fewest to the perimeter. The Texans have allowed the lowest catch rate (54%) and seven TDs to the position. Only five receivers have reached 13 fantasy points against them, and the only two who reached 18 were superstars Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua.
Fantasy scoop: Oronde Gadsden II is doing his best Quentin Johnston impression, following up four straight solid-to-strong fantasy outings with a bunch of duds. During Weeks 6-9, the rookie tight end produced five-plus catches and 68-plus yards in all four games, averaging 17.9 fantasy PPG during the stretch. During his most recent three games, he has totaled just six catches, 81 yards and 14.1 fantasy points.
The good news is that Gadsden remains a featured part of the Chargers’ offense, having handled a 16.7% target share during the three-game slide. The bad news is that the Eagles have allowed the second-fewest yards, lowest yards per target (5.2) and fourth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. No tight end has reached 14 fantasy points against them this season. Gadsden is a fringe starting option.
Shadow Report: Downgrade Philadelphia’s receivers against a zone-heavy Chargers defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to receivers this season, including the fewest to the perimeter and third fewest to the slot. Los Angeles has allowed the third-fewest yards and only six TDs to the position. Brown (90% perimeter) will primarily work against Donte Jackson and Cam Hart on the boundary, with Smith (59% slot) set to see plenty of Tarheeb Still inside.