Bill ConnellyDec 5, 2025, 07:30 AM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Follow on X
Georgia’s Stockton, running game are keys to success vs. Alabama (1:55)SEC Network’s Fozzy Whittaker breaks down the progression of this Bulldogs squad since the matchup vs. the Crimson Tide earlier this season. (1:55)
Conference USA: Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State
It took a while for college football to orient itself this season. Three of the top four teams in the preseason AP Top 25 poll started poorly, and only one really recovered. Nine of the preseason top 17 went 8-4 or worse. Meanwhile, some teams that were expected to be good — preseason No. 20 Indiana, No. 21 Ole Miss and No. 23 Texas Tech — turned out to be playoff-caliber dynamite.
Things were pretty messy for a while as the sport figured itself out, but once the hierarchy was established, it was established. Over the past three weeks, teams ranked 14th or higher in the AP poll have gone a combined 35-3, and all three losses were to opponents ranked 16th or higher.
The ACC and the coaching carousel did their best to ensure that there was always something messy and/or chaotic happening, but we’ve reached Championship Week with the balance of power firmly set. Now we get to find out if college football decides to offer one last burst of absolute nonsense. Here’s everything you need to follow during what is likely to be either a very orderly or incredibly fraught Championship Week.
What if BYU wins and Alabama loses (13% chance)? Last season, SMU made the CFP despite losing in the ACC championship game; from that, we derived that the committee had decided not to punish a team for earning a 13th game when others around it in the rankings had not. The Mustangs did fall from eighth to 10th, however. It wasn’t enough to knock them from the playoff field, but they still dropped.
So what will happen if Alabama loses to Georgia, perhaps by a solid margin? Will Bama fall behind Notre Dame? And if BYU has also won … will that mean the Cougars steal the Tide’s bid?
Back in the BCS days, the people in charge would change the way the computer ratings portion of the BCS formula worked anytime they disagreed with the results. Constantly saying, “I don’t like that, let’s change something” creates a worse process as often as not.
Now, Indiana is playing for its first Big Ten title in 58 years; that’s pretty big. Plus, since both quarterbacks, IU’s Fernando Mendoza and OSU’s Julian Sayin, are among the three betting favorites in the Heisman race, it’s hard not to look at this game as a winner-take-all situation for that award. (Root for a defensive slugfest, Diego Pavia!) But this might turn out to be the first of two Hoosiers-Buckeyes games, and the second one will be much bigger.
Will Indiana’s offensive line hold up? In 2024, the Hoosiers lost to only the two national title game participants, Ohio State and Notre Dame. In both games, the IU defense mostly held up, but the offense vanished: Whereas the Hoosiers averaged 464 yards in wins, they gained a total of 429 yards in the two losses. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke’s injury limitations didn’t help, but IU running backs averaged only 4.0 yards per carry, and Rourke took eight sacks in 60 pass attempts.
This season, Indiana ranks first in rushing success rate* and a solid 35th in sack rate allowed. Backs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black keep the Hoosiers on schedule, and Mendoza gets the ball out of his hands quickly. The offense performed well enough against a pair of SP+ top-10 defenses (Iowa and Oregon), but Ohio State’s defense is the best in the country. How well will the Hoosiers hold up, especially up front?
(*Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth.)
Big plays are the way to score on Indiana, however. The Hoosiers have allowed only 11 offensive touchdowns this season: Six were from 44 yards or longer, and two more were set up by gains of 40-plus. IU is fifth in success rate allowed and ninth in sack rate — the Hoosiers don’t let you dink and dunk all the way down the field. Can Ohio State create chunk plays without exposing Sayin to hits and mistakes?
Current line: OSU -4 (down from -5.5 at open) | SP+ projection: OSU by 0.9 | FPI projection: IU by 0.1
Of course, for all the talk of parity within this conference, we’re getting our fourth Bama-Georgia title game in eight years, and a Georgia win — the Dawgs are favored — will be its third title in four years. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose and whatnot.
Georgia’s defense has rounded into form of late, but the Dawgs still face an awkward matchup with the Tide offense, in that it defends the run far better than the pass and Bama is happy to abandon the run and put the game in Ty Simpson’s hands. Regardless, the early going will be huge: Georgia is more experienced and more effective at playing from behind. And if you’re rooting for the “What happens if Bama gets genuinely thumped?” scenario, Georgia going up early is an obvious step one.
BYU has all the motivation in this one, however, knowing that its playoff hopes are now fully win or bust. (The Cougars might also get an “Our head coach just chose us over Penn State” boost.) Will that make a difference? Or is Tech just too damn good?
The Red Raiders have given up more than 17 points just twice all season and only allowed one team, Kansas State, to top 4.8 yards per play (the Wildcats averaged a still pedestrian 5.2). BYU might be able to hold Tech under 28 points with another strong effort, but it might take the best performance of Bachmeier’s life to hit 28 or more.
As fun as it’s been to envision wild scenarios that might unfold if Duke wins the ACC, Virginia could put an end to all of this creativity by simply repeating what happened the last time the Cavaliers met the Blue Devils. Three weeks ago, they put together probably their most complete performance of the season in a 34-17 romp.
Success rate: Virginia 40.3%, Duke 31.0% Yards per play: Virginia 7.0, Duke 4.4 Field position margin: Virginia plus-6.7 per drive Third downs: Virginia 12-19, Duke 4-15 Sacks: Virginia 4, Duke 0 Turnovers: Virginia 2, Duke 1
UVA played far more efficient ball than the Blue Devils, enjoyed eight gains of 20-plus yards to Duke’s three and won 23 of 34 total third downs (67%). The only reason the game finished as close as 17 points was because of two Hoos turnovers, one of which was a pick-six.
Virginia has been the better team in 2025, but these teams’ first game was a bit of an outlier. UVA’s seasonlong averages aren’t quite as advantageous, and Duke’s offense has been especially strong down the stretch. The Blue Devils have scored more than 30 points in four of the past five games (UVA being the exception), and Darian Mensah finished the regular season first in the ACC in passing yards and third in Total QBR.
Mensah has been a high-volume, high-accuracy playmaker, and Duke has improved from 71st to 23rd in offensive SP+ in a single season.
Unfortunately for Duke, the defense has fallen from 31st to 91st. Against seven top-60 offenses this season, including Virginia’s, Duke allowed 36.4 points per game. Virginia’s offensive production trailed off over the back half of the season, but the Hoos still torched the Blue Devils: Chandler Morris threw for 316 yards, Trell Harris caught eight balls for 161 yards and J’Mari Taylor rushed for 133 yards in 18 carries.
With four of five Group of 5 title games taking place Friday night, we’ll have a clear view of the stakes of Virginia-Duke by Saturday morning. But it’s safe to assume that the winner of this game, pitting two ranked teams with soon-departing head coaches (UNT’s Oklahoma State-bound Eric Morris and Tulane’s Florida-bound Jon Sumrall) in potentially very rainy conditions, is in.
The Mean Green’s schedule, however, has lacked. They’ve played only one team currently ranked higher than 57th in SP+ (South Florida), and they lost to the Bulls by 27 points. Granted, that margin was mostly due to the worst middle eight of all time — USF went on a 28-0 run between the 0:02 mark of the second quarter and 11:35 of the third — but it still counts, and UNT hasn’t had another chance to prove itself against a particularly good opponent.
Tulane is good. Granted, the Green Wave have allowed 38.5 points per game and 7.1 yards per play to the only two top-20 offenses they’ve faced. But they’re improving on D — they solidly overachieved against defensive projections down the stretch — and they have an offense that can keep up in a track meet: They’re 10th nationally in passing success rate, with Jake Retzlaff combining 2,717 passing yards with a solid 621 non-sack rushing yards.
Neither of these defenses is amazing, but neither gives up a ton of big plays either. This one will probably come down to which defense allows the fewest big shots and easy points
Troy has reached the Sun Belt championship game through sheer perseverance. Gerad Parker’s Trojans won three straight wild one-score games early in the season. They also overcame an early-season QB injury, with Tucker Kilcrease filling in for Goose Crowder, who is back in the lineup and slinging the ball around well. Good pass defense and random offensive spurts have given them a chance at a third Sun Belt title in four years.
The odds, of course, aren’t great. JMU did lose four times as a favorite last year, and distractions can always strike when your coach is leaving, but Troy is a three-touchdown underdog, and JMU will be hunting for style points in super-chilly Harrisonburg.
The only close call JMU has suffered since the offensive ignition came against Washington State: The Cougars kept the tempo at a crawl, won third and fourth downs and limited the Dukes to just 50 snaps. It still didn’t work — JMU scored on two long second-half touchdowns and won 24-20. But if Troy pulls a scare, it will be from a similar recipe. The Trojans can land some shots defensively, and they’re pretty good on third down and willing on fourth. But the margin for error here is minimal.