play0:56Cockcroft: Ernest Jones IV is a must-add for fantasy playoffsTristan H. Cockcroft advocates for fantasy managers to add Ernest Jones IV for the playoffs.
play1:19Why Field Yates is starting Joe Burrow against Buffalo in Week 14Field Yates breaks down his confidence in Joe Burrow against the Bills’ defense in fantasy Week 14.
play1:13Cockcroft: Chase Brown is a top-10 RB in Week 14Tristan H. Cockcroft explains his fantasy optimism for Chase Brown vs. the Bills.
play1:04Field Yates: Zay Flowers a top-25 WR vs. SteelersField Yates describes how Zay Flowers can be a beneficiary for fantasy against the Steelers in Week 14.
play7:43Bears vs. Packers: Will Micah Parsons have opportunities to get at Caleb Williams?Dan Orlovsky, Ryan Clark and Mina Kimes join Shae Cornette on First Take to discuss the Chicago Bears vs. the Green Bay Packers.
The Ravens will be the NFL’s MOST DISAPPOINTING TEAM with a loss to the Steelers – Orlovsky (11:44)The “Get Up” crew discusses concerns surrounding the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles and more. (11:44)
Cockcroft: Ernest Jones IV is a must-add for fantasy playoffsTristan H. Cockcroft advocates for fantasy managers to add Ernest Jones IV for the playoffs.
Why Field Yates is starting Joe Burrow against Buffalo in Week 14Field Yates breaks down his confidence in Joe Burrow against the Bills’ defense in fantasy Week 14.
Cockcroft: Chase Brown is a top-10 RB in Week 14Tristan H. Cockcroft explains his fantasy optimism for Chase Brown vs. the Bills.
Field Yates: Zay Flowers a top-25 WR vs. SteelersField Yates describes how Zay Flowers can be a beneficiary for fantasy against the Steelers in Week 14.
Field Yates describes how Zay Flowers can be a beneficiary for fantasy against the Steelers in Week 14.
Bears vs. Packers: Will Micah Parsons have opportunities to get at Caleb Williams?Dan Orlovsky, Ryan Clark and Mina Kimes join Shae Cornette on First Take to discuss the Chicago Bears vs. the Green Bay Packers.
Dan Orlovsky, Ryan Clark and Mina Kimes join Shae Cornette on First Take to discuss the Chicago Bears vs. the Green Bay Packers.
Value is value, no matter where — or how — you find it. And that’s what we’ll aim to do each week in this space — find value.
Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X’s and O’s to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league.
These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.
Solak: Boy, do I hate the feeling of fading a Chiefs team with its back against the wall in the AFC playoff race. But here we are. The Chiefs are missing both of their starting tackles against the league’s best pass rush duo in Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. The Chiefs tend to struggle against man coverage-heavy defenses, which the Texans have the cornerbacks to run. I don’t see a dominant offensive performance out of Kansas City.
Cockcroft: Ernest Jones IV is a must-add for fantasy playoffs
Tristan H. Cockcroft advocates for fantasy managers to add Ernest Jones IV for the playoffs.
Bowen: The Bills will move the ball against this Bengals defense, especially on the ground with James Cook III. But Cincy can run the ball too with Chase Brown, and I’ll take Joe Burrow, with receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both up for the game, against a Buffalo secondary that lacks high-end team speed. Cincy covers the 5.5 points in Orchard Park.
Bowen: The spread works for the Bears on the road, given the offensive identity under coach Ben Johnson. Control tempo with the run game while setting up Caleb Williams on play-action throws. And a Bears defense that takes the ball away travels well in December, too. Chicago covers at Lambeau.
Why Field Yates is starting Joe Burrow against Buffalo in Week 14
Field Yates breaks down his confidence in Joe Burrow against the Bills’ defense in fantasy Week 14.
And, when the Bengals have the ball, they are also probably likely to run the ball more than usual given Buffalo’s own defensive weakness against the run. On the surface that doesn’t have a huge impact on Bishop on each play — his tackle rates are very similar against the run and the pass — but it means that when both teams have the ball, they’ll be working the clock.
Tristan H. Cockcroft explains his fantasy optimism for Chase Brown vs. the Bills.
Bowen: Jones has attempted fewer than 32 passes in three straight games, and I don’t expect the Indianapolis Colts to use a pass-heavy game plan versus the Jacksonville Jaguars. If Indy can stay on schedule, the call sheet leans on Jonathan Taylor and the run game. Taylor has 20 or more carries in two of his past three games.
Bowen: Brown has topped the 75-yard rushing mark in three straight games, and this offense will be balanced with Joe Burrow under center. That works here against a Bills defense giving up 5.2 yards per carry.
Bowen: Warren has rushed for a touchdown in two straight games, both on goal-line carries. When the Pittsburgh Steelers get the ball in the low red zone versus the Ravens, Warren will get his opportunities.
Walder: It has been a disappointing season for Moore, who has just 502 receiving yards, 1.4 yards per route run and a 17% target rate. Still, the odds have gotten pessimistic enough on Moore that it’s worth taking a shot here. One reason to hit the alternate line here is that 45% of Moore’s routes are verticals (11th highest among wide receivers with at least 200 routes this season), which means that if Caleb Williams does connect with Moore, it is more likely to be for a chunk gain.
Bowen: Watson’s usage is up (17 targets over his past two games), and he’s producing as a three-level route runner. I like the matchup here versus the Bears secondary, and we know Watson can get down the field to create explosive plays.
Bears vs. Packers: Will Micah Parsons have opportunities to get at Caleb Williams?
Bowen: Loveland has 40 or more yards receiving in five of his past six games. A big-body target for quarterback Caleb Williams, Loveland can flex from the formation to run seams and in-breakers off play-action. Zone answers here for Ben Johnson’s game plan.
Bowen: Higgins has topped 42 yards receiving in three of his past four games. He’s a big-body target who can create separation to the ball, and he’s seeing more volume (7.0 targets per game over his past three). Look for Houston to scheme matchups for Higgins versus K.C. from boundary and slot alignments.
On the other side of the ball, the Texans’ offense has found success in the passing game over recent weeks with the emergence of rookie receiver Jayden Higgins. Higgins and Nico Collins bring formidable size to the position, and star CB Trent McDuffie tends to struggle most with bigger receivers who can box him out of the catch point. I like a low-scoring game in this one, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the last drive is the game winner for either side. So long as I’m getting the hook, I’m on the Texans’ side.
Washington’s offense is also a unit underappreciated in the market. On the season, it’s 12th in EPA per drive and 13th in points per drive — this with major offensive injury not just at quarterback, but at receiver as well. The game against the Denver Broncos was only the fifth game all season where Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel played together, and WR3 Noah Brown might be back for this game as well. As I wrote a few weeks ago, I’m not sure how many opportunities are left in life to fade McCarthy as a starter. I’m not letting this one pass me by.
Solak: I wanted to get a feel for Drake London’s availability for this game before I hit it. With London not practicing Wednesday or Thursday, I’m confident that if he plays, he’ll be fairly limited. Given his value in the red zone, I’m willing to take the under now. The Falcons’ offense under Kirk Cousins is far too limited. The Falcons need to be able to hit explosive plays, as Cousins’ lack of mobility in the pocket makes it nearly impossible to string together long drives. The Seattle Seahawks are the best defense in football at limiting explosive passes and fourth in explosive runs.
Without the hidden yardage of Bijan Robinson’s tackle-breaking or Kyle Pitts Sr.’s speed after the catch, it’s hard to find big plays (59.2% of Cousins’ passing yardage this year has come after the catch, second only to Aaron Rodgers, and the Seahawks’ defense is fifth best at preventing YAC this year). I prefer taking the under on the Falcons team total given Sam Darnold’s recent struggles against pressure, which the Falcons’ defense can dial up well. I also have some Seahawks -7 (-105) in pocket, and this line has moved toward Atlanta over the course of the week. I’d be stunned if we get -6.5 (-110) but will hit it again if we do.
It would be hard to find a juicier matchup than the dangerous Denver defense against the woebegone Raiders offense. Geno Smith has taken sacks at a 10.6% clip this season (highest among QBR qualifiers), and the Broncos are threatening the single-season team sack record. Each of the many expected sacks in this game offers the possibility of a strip sack (and potential scoop-and-score). And it’s not like Smith has taken care of the ball through the air, either; his 14 interceptions are tied for the league high. I make the fair price here +379.
Among the 49 qualifiers at edge this season, only three players (Cameron Jordan, Montez Sweat and Bradley Chubb) have a worse pass rush win rate at the position than Paye (5.3%). That’s a pretty tough starting place for his sack forecast. In the right circumstances any edge rusher can be worth betting on. But this isn’t it. The Colts aren’t heavy favorites (the spread favors them by just 1.5 points), the Jaguars rank eighth in pass block win rate as a team (68.0%) and Trevor Lawrence’s 7.1% sack rate is just a shade above average. None of that suggests Paye should receive odds this favorable. My sack model wildly disagrees with the market in this case, pricing Paye’s under at -268.