Adam RittenbergDec 8, 2025, 08:05 AM ETCloseCollege football reporter; joined ESPN in 2008. Graduate of Northwestern University.Follow on X
Finebaum isn’t buying IU as CFP favorite (0:46)Paul Finebaum explains why Indiana isn’t the College Football Playoff favorite despite its win over Ohio State. (0:46)
The 12-team College Football Playoff is no longer new, but there are some different elements to consider when beginning the intrepid task of predicting every postseason game the day the pairings are announced.
For starters, there are more justifiably aggrieved teams at being left out of the 12-team CFP. Among them: Vanderbilt (10-2), BYU (11-2), Texas (9-3) and, of course, Notre Dame (10-2), which had the most bitter Sunday following the selections.
Don’t mortgage your house on these, but if they hit, I will accept any and all gifts and congratulations. Without further ado, from Bowl Predictions HQ in downtown Indianapolis, here are the breakdowns and picks for every college football postseason game.
The team opt-outs opened an opportunity for Rice, which will complete its first season under coach Scott Abell and seek the team’s first bowl victory since 2014. Rice has wins over UConn and Louisiana but really struggled defensively late in the season, which Texas State should be able to expose. Quarterback Brad Jackson and wide receiver Beau Sparks connect for two touchdowns as the Bobcats pull away.
The annual coaching carousel always impacts the postseason, but this year has seen moves that have impacted the CFP unlike ever before. Ole Miss will play without former coach Lane Kiffin, while new coach Pete Golding will make his debut at the helm in the biggest game in team history. Jon Sumrall, meanwhile, will lead Tulane into its first CFP before focusing fully on his new job at Florida. James Madison is a surprise inclusion to the CFP, and coach Bob Chesney will lead the Dukes before departing for UCLA.
Several CFP teams also have coordinators moving on to head-coaching roles, including Oregon’s Will Stein (Kentucky) and Tosh Lupoi (Cal), and Ohio State’s Brian Hartline (South Florida). There are also the standard uncertainties around bowl games, including NFL draft declarations and transfer announcements, which haven’t kicked into high gear yet since the portal doesn’t open until January. All this makes predicting the bowl/CFP outcomes right after the pairings are revealed kind of insane, but also fun!
The CFP begins with a rematch of a game played barely a month earlier at Bryant-Denny Stadium. I was there and came away impressed by Oklahoma’s defensive talent and layered scheme, which prevailed in a 23-21 victory. Alabama was clearly worn down toward the end of the season, not looking impressive in its victory at Auburn, and being held scoreless for more than 47 minutes against Georgia in the SEC championship. But teams that squeak into the CFP can gain some momentum from being granted a second life, and despite the head-to-head outcome in Tuscaloosa, Alabama still outgained Oklahoma 406-212 and had 11 more first downs. Quarterback Ty Simpson has a chance to reset and reclaim his accuracy, and running back Jam Miller will likely return for the CFP. Coach Kalen DeBoer and the Tide are no strangers to this stage, and they’ll find a way to win a close one in Norman.
The Hurricanes can exhale after making it into the field over Notre Dame, which they beat in the season opener. Miami is one of the nation’s most talented teams. Now the Hurricanes must draw from making their first CFP appearance against another CFP newcomer in Texas A&M, which is coming off its first loss of the season. Kyle Field is always electric and should help Texas A&M in its first CFP game, but Miami should benefit from the earlier start time, rather than having to deal with the 12th Man at night. Both teams have tremendous talent at wide receiver and playmaking quarterbacks in Marcel Reed (Texas A&M) and Carson Beck (Miami). But Miami’s improved defense under coordinator Corey Hetherman should provide the Canes an edge in this game, especially after Reed has thrown six interceptions in his past five games. The Hurricanes force a late takeaway and get out of Aggieland with a win.
A first-round rematch of a game Ole Miss won by 35 points back on Sept. 20 is less than ideal, but the changed circumstances around both programs add some intrigue. How will Ole Miss perform without Kiffin at the controls? Golding is a popular replacement, but he has never led this team and will be facing a future SEC competitor in Sumrall. Tulane defended North Texas extremely well in the American Conference championship game, forcing five turnovers and holding the Mean Green to seven points until the final minute of the third quarter. Golding’s defense gave Tulane problems in the first matchup, as quarterback Jake Retzlaff completed only 5 of 17 passes for 56 yards before being benched. Tulane struggled to defend Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who had 307 passing yards, 2 touchdowns and 112 rushing yards in the first meeting. Sumrall’s team will play a bit better this time, but Ole Miss overcomes a slow start to pull away behind Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy.
The quarters kick off with a good one, as Ohio State returns to the building where it won a CFP semifinal matchup in last season’s national title run. Despite the disappointment of the Big Ten championship game, coach Ryan Day and his team can draw upon their playoff success from last season and begin the quest to repeat. A key matchup will be Ohio State’s offensive line (which allowed five sacks to Indiana after surrendering six during the entire regular season) facing a talented Miami defensive front led by Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. The Buckeyes will need to run the ball effectively, especially in short-yardage situations. But they can also lean on their defense to fluster Beck and the Hurricanes a bit. Expect big games from Arvell Reese, Caden Curry and others as Ohio State moves on.
The best teams money can buy? Let’s freaking go. No two programs seem to get more flack for what they invest in their rosters more than Oregon (hello, Phil Knight) and Texas Tech (howdy, Cody Campbell). But the Red Raiders and Ducks have earned their way to this stage, and should deliver an incredible matchup in South Florida. Oregon has the quarterback edge with Dante Moore, who should have more wide receivers at his disposal as he faces a top-five defense in Texas Tech. The matchup of Oregon’s offensive line and Texas Tech’s defensive front should be epic. Even though Oregon has CFP experience, Texas Tech should be able to ride Shiel Wood’s defense and just enough offense to get the W.
Indiana had barely capped off the most magical night in recent program history before coach Curt Cignetti turned his attention toward preparing (and humbling) his team before the CFP. The Hoosiers are AP No. 1 for the first time and riding high from their first outright Big Ten title since 1945. But going undefeated didn’t matter for Oregon in last season’s Rose Bowl, and Indiana must lock in for an opponent that is used to the biggest of stages. Yes, it’s Alabama, but the Hoosiers have the better quarterback in Fernando Mendoza, a much better running game with multiple options and a defense that can match up with the Tide, especially after the Ohio State win. Alabama will need some type of offensive balance to win this one, and I don’t see it happening against coordinator Bryant Haines’ ferocious defense. Indiana gets two touchdown passes from Mendoza and advances.
The quarterfinals end with an SEC rematch in the Big Easy, as coach Kirby Smart tries to avoid a repeat of last season’s Sugar Bowl, when Georgia had just 10 points and 62 rushing yards in a loss to Notre Dame. Anyone think Kiffin will make the trip over from Baton Rouge to watch his former team? Quarterback Gunner Stockton was making his first career start in place of the injured Beck and should be much more comfortable this time around. Stockton had his best game of the season Oct. 18 against Ole Miss, completing 26 of 31 passes for 289 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in a 43-35 win. Georgia also is playing some of its best football collectively during the stretch run, especially a defense that struggled at times against Chambliss in the first meeting. I love this Ole Miss team, but I don’t see Georgia exiting the playoff so soon again.
The best matchup of the entire CFP could come in the desert, featuring teams that have combined for three of the past four national championships. Ohio State and Georgia delivered a classic in the 2022 national semifinal, a game the Buckeyes largely controlled before falling 42-41 in Atlanta. Georgia has an experience edge at quarterback with Stockton over redshirt freshman Julian Sayin, but Ohio State’s wide receivers and overall defensive staff power could swing the game its way. I’m not expecting many points but Ohio State finds a few more, as kicker Jayden Fielding redeems himself after the Big Ten title game miss.
Two of the nation’s best defenses will go at it in Atlanta with a spot in the national championship game on the line. The game also pits Mendoza, the FBS leader in touchdown passes, against arguably the nation’s top defender in Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez. Each scoring chance will be critical, as both defenses rank in the top five nationally in red zone touchdowns allowed. I could certainly see this going either way, but Indiana has a fairly substantial advantage at quarterback with Mendoza, and an underrated run game to provide balance. The Hoosiers move on to the natty.
The Bulldogs return to the Celebration Bowl for the second straight season and for the third time in five years, while Prairie View A&M makes its debut in the game under talented first-year coach Tremaine Jackson. South Carolina State quarterback William Atkins IV, who had 16 touchdowns and only four interceptions this season, faces a Prairie View A&M defense that allowed fewer than 10 points in five of its final seven games. The Panthers are coming in hot and win a close one behind the defense and dynamic wide receiver Jyzaiah Rockwell, who catches two touchdown passes.