Barnwell sorts through NFL playoff race chaos: Are the Colts, Chiefs and Ravens finished?

play0:32Daniel Jones suffers Achilles injury vs. the JaguarsDaniel Jones exits the Colts’ Week 14 game vs. the Jaguars with an Achilles injury.

play0:25Trevor Lawrence evades pressure, throws TD pass to Tim PatrickTrevor Lawrence finds Tim Patrick for a touchdown to extend the Jaguars’ lead vs. the Colts.

play0:39Isaiah Likely’s go-ahead TD gets overturned on reviewIsaiah Likely appears to score a go-ahead touchdown, but it’s overturned because the referees say he lost control of the ball.

play0:41Woody: ‘Stick a fork in the Chiefs, they are done!’Damien Woody explains how the Chiefs’ season is essentially over after Sunday night’s loss to the Texans.

play0:25CJ Stroud flips it to Woody Marks for Texans TDCJ Stroud throws a short pass to Woody Marks to take a 10-0 lead over the Chiefs.

play0:22Christian Watson hauls in his second TDJordan Love passes to Christian Watson and he turns on the jets to the end zone to extend the Packers’ lead.

play0:31Packers seal win with INT of Caleb WilliamsKeisean Nixon picks off Caleb Williams to seal the win for the Packers with 22 seconds left in the fourth quarter.

Schefter: Colts aren’t going to make the playoffs without Daniel Jones (0:56)Adam Schefter discusses the implications of Daniel Jones’ brutal season-ending injury for the Colts. (0:56)

Daniel Jones suffers Achilles injury vs. the JaguarsDaniel Jones exits the Colts’ Week 14 game vs. the Jaguars with an Achilles injury.

Trevor Lawrence evades pressure, throws TD pass to Tim PatrickTrevor Lawrence finds Tim Patrick for a touchdown to extend the Jaguars’ lead vs. the Colts.

Isaiah Likely’s go-ahead TD gets overturned on reviewIsaiah Likely appears to score a go-ahead touchdown, but it’s overturned because the referees say he lost control of the ball.

Isaiah Likely appears to score a go-ahead touchdown, but it’s overturned because the referees say he lost control of the ball.

Woody: ‘Stick a fork in the Chiefs, they are done!’Damien Woody explains how the Chiefs’ season is essentially over after Sunday night’s loss to the Texans.

Damien Woody explains how the Chiefs’ season is essentially over after Sunday night’s loss to the Texans.

CJ Stroud flips it to Woody Marks for Texans TDCJ Stroud throws a short pass to Woody Marks to take a 10-0 lead over the Chiefs.

Christian Watson hauls in his second TDJordan Love passes to Christian Watson and he turns on the jets to the end zone to extend the Packers’ lead.

Jordan Love passes to Christian Watson and he turns on the jets to the end zone to extend the Packers’ lead.

Packers seal win with INT of Caleb WilliamsKeisean Nixon picks off Caleb Williams to seal the win for the Packers with 22 seconds left in the fourth quarter.

Keisean Nixon picks off Caleb Williams to seal the win for the Packers with 22 seconds left in the fourth quarter.

play0:24Steelers sack Lamar on final play to secure AFC North-leading win over RavensSteelers sack Lamar on final play to secure AFC North-leading win over Ravens

There were more significant swings on Sunday, especially in games where teams with realistic playoff aspirations were pitted against one another. With three potential playoff teams on bye and two more still to meet when the Chargers and Eagles play on “Monday Night Football,” there were four matchups between true playoff contenders on Sunday. (Sorry, Bengals.) They were all interesting in their own ways.

Daniel Jones suffers Achilles injury vs. the Jaguars

Daniel Jones exits the Colts’ Week 14 game vs. the Jaguars with an Achilles injury.

Of course, the solution for the Colts will probably be to phase out the quarterback as much as possible and rely heavily on Jonathan Taylor and their defense to win them games. We saw the limitations of that strategy Sunday. While the Colts were already trailing 14-7 at the end of the first quarter when Jones suffered his injury, they were still close enough to the Jags to continue running the football and keep things competitive. It just didn’t work.

Trevor Lawrence evades pressure, throws TD pass to Tim Patrick

Trevor Lawrence finds Tim Patrick for a touchdown to extend the Jaguars’ lead vs. the Colts.

The Jags had a margin of error earlier in the year because of their defense and their newfound propensity for creating turnovers. Jacksonville racked up 14 takeaways through its 4-1 stretch to start the season. Over the 3-3 stretch that followed, it mustered only four, and the defense dropped from sixth in EPA per play to 19th. Injuries in the secondary didn’t help matters, while midseason trade acquisition Greg Newsome II struggled to grow comfortable in his new digs.

Over the past two games, though, the Jaguars have gotten back on the turnover train, with two in the win over the Titans and three more against the Colts. Leonard was responsible for only one of those giveaways, as the Jags picked off Jones early in the game before his injury. With the Jets, Broncos, Colts and Titans on the schedule between now and the end of the season, the Jags might feel like they can continue to create takeaways in bunches on the defensive side of the ball.

Lamar Jackson ran seven times for 43 yards and a touchdown. The Ravens as a whole ran for 214 yards on 40 carries, highlighted by a 55-yard scamper by Keaton Mitchell, who would later leave the game with a knee injury. The Ravens had a 43% success rate on their carries, and they held the Steelers to 34 rush yards on 17 attempts.

Isaiah Likely’s go-ahead TD gets overturned on review

The Likely non-catch was controversial and will linger in the heads of Ravens fans for a long time if they don’t make it to the postseason, but it was one moment in a sequence of unfortunate red zone events for the Ravens. They went 2-for-6 converting red zone trips into touchdowns Sunday and left opportunities to score on the field.

On fourth-and-5, Jackson tried to work a juke route to Zay Flowers with a corner route over the top from Likely, but he came off of it almost immediately and never really seemed to land on something he liked. DeAndre Hopkins was open briefly in the back of the end zone, but Jackson was already off the veteran wideout, too. He seemed to get caught between scrambling and waiting in the pocket before attempting a throw to a covered Mark Andrews, who wasn’t able to bring in the ball.

Steelers sack Lamar on final play to secure AFC North-leading win over RavensSteelers sack Lamar on final play to secure AFC North-leading win over Ravens

Steelers sack Lamar on final play to secure AFC North-leading win over Ravens

Steelers sack Lamar on final play to secure AFC North-leading win over Ravens

This was obviously an enormous victory for the Steelers, who now hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Ravens and will host the rematch between the two in Week 18. The Bengals blowing their lead in Buffalo and losing helped; their playoff odds dropped to 3.4%.

Woody: ‘Stick a fork in the Chiefs, they are done!’

CJ Stroud throws a short pass to Woody Marks to take a 10-0 lead over the Chiefs.

The Bears were good, but they weren’t quite good enough. In part, that stems from the biggest disconnect between this team and reality. The Bears came into this game with the best turnover margin (plus-17) in the NFL by a considerable amount, driven both by sound offense and a whopping 26 takeaways on defense. They entered turning 19.8% of opposing possessions into turnovers, which was both the best rate in the league and the third-best rate by any team in any season over the past decade.

The Bears had a legitimate reason to hope to not be that same defense heading into the game: health. They welcomed back cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon last week, while linebackers T.J. Edwards and Noah Sewell were back in the fold this week. Johnson is a Pro Bowl-caliber cornerback at his best, and with the returning contributors, the Bears should have felt like they had a realistic chance of holding up on the drives that didn’t end with turnover celebrations.

It didn’t play out that way in reality. Gordon injured his groin in pregame warmups and was a late scratch. Johnson was in and out of the lineup and played only 65% of the defensive snaps. Edwards was on the field for 63% of the snaps in his return, while coordinator Dennis Allen played D’Marco Jackson ahead of Sewell, who suited up to play just one defensive snap all game.

Gordon’s injury cost the Bears their top slot cornerback. Guess where Love picked the Bears apart? Love was 7-of-7 for 150 yards and three touchdowns throwing to receivers operating out of the slot on Sunday, nearly doubling his passing output on throws to receivers who were split out or started in the backfield.

Coming off a dominant rushing performance against the Eagles, the Bears eventually got their run game going, but it took some time. Chicago’s first three drives of the game produced a total of just one first down and 5 net yards. The Bears managed just one possession with more than one first down in the first half of the game before racking up 15 first downs across their four drives after the break.

Look at what Williams did and you can understand why Johnson leaned into moving his quarterback around. Williams went 14-of-22 for 144 yards with two touchdown throws and a pick using play-action, but he was just 5-of-13 for 42 yards as a dropback passer. He started slow and was just 1-of-7 for 2 yards in the first quarter, but as the game wore along, he improved. He was 13-of-21 for 154 yards with two scores and a pick in the second half without taking any sacks.

There were plenty of positive moments for Williams in this game, including a spectacular throw to Cole Kmet on the move and a touchdown pass into an impossible window for Olamide Zaccheaus. Williams drove the Bears into position for the game-altering score they’ve gotten so many times in the fourth quarter this season. This time, though, the Packers were up to the task.

Today, I’ll break down the big stories from those four games and what the outcome means for both teams involved. That starts in Jacksonville, where a Colts team saw its chances of making an impact in 2025 and potentially 2026 disappear in a matter of moments. Not only did Indy lose the division matchup, it also lost quarterback Daniel Jones to an Achilles injury. A team that had visions of running the AFC playoffs through Indianapolis as the 1-seed might not make it to this season’s postseason at all.

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