How the CFP committee landed on putting Miami ahead of Notre Dame (3:28)College Football Playoff selection committee chair Hunter Yurachek discusses the decision to put Miami in the College Football Playoff over Notre Dame. (3:28)
The College Football Playoff selection committee’s final top 25 of the season produced a 12-team bracket that includes two regular-season rematches in the first round: No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma and No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss. Oklahoma beat Alabama, 23-21, on Nov. 15, and Ole Miss cruised to a 45-10 win against Tulane on Sept. 20.
And while No. 12 seed James Madison edged out five-loss ACC champion Duke and will face No. 5 Oregon, the ACC’s best team will still have a chance to compete for the national title when No. 10 Miami travels to No. 7 Texas A&M.
Road to the playoff: The two most significant moves Oklahoma made after its 6-7 finish in 2024: Brent Venables assumed full control of the Sooners’ defense and quarterback John Mateer transferred in from Washington State.
With the fourth-year head coach calling plays, Oklahoma closed the regular season in the top 10 nationally in points per game (13.9), yards per game (273.6) and run defense (81.4 YPG), looking every suffocating bit of a vintage Venables defense. And while Mateer and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle haven’t quite lit the world on fire this fall — the Sooners rank 91st in total offense nationally — they’ve provided Oklahoma with timely playmaking to support the defense.
That combination has powered all of the program’s most important wins this fall, none bigger than the back-to-back ranked SEC road wins at Tennessee and Alabama that effectively punched the Sooners’ first trip to the CFP since 2019.
Player to watch: Defensive lineman R Mason Thomas, one of the few bonafide stars on one of the nation’s deepest defenses, missed each of Oklahoma’s final three games of the regular season after suffering a quad injury on a 71-yard fumble return touchdown at Tennessee on Nov. 1.
When Thomas is healthy, few edge rushers across the country are more explosive than the 6-foot-2, 249-pound senior from Fort Lauderdale, Florida. The Sooners managed without their sack leader of the past two seasons for most of November, even toppling Alabama on the road Nov. 15. But Thomas’ health and availability later this month remains one of the biggest questions hanging over Oklahoma and the Sooners’ ultimate postseason ceiling.
They can win if…: Oklahoma’s 23-21 win at Alabama last month marked easily the biggest win of the Venables era in Norman. It also provided the Sooners’ ideal blueprint to winning games in 2025.
Smothering defense plus elite special teams with a dash of big play ability from Mateer and the offense; it’s a simple and smothering blueprint. If the Sooners can execute to similar perfection later this month, they’ll be as tough an out as anybody in the CFP field. — Eli Lederman
Biggest question: The Aggies have bogged down in the red zone this season. They rank 44th in the FBS in TD percentage (65.5%) and 77th nationally in red zone scoring overall, managing points on 83.6% of trips. Their four turnovers inside the 20 tied for 115th in the nation. A&M’s red zone defense is easily the nation’s best, allowing conversions on just 22.3% of attempts, though it ranks 63rd in red zone efficiency on defense, allowing touchdowns on 59.4% of drives.
Though there has been nothing concrete to suggest that the Ducks won’t get Moore and Bryant back at some point during the playoff, it will be up to the aforementioned group to continue to step up if those two and Stewart aren’t available.
They can win if…: They rely on their running game. Yes, I know I just mentioned how important their wide receivers and tight ends are as well as the obvious point that how Moore plays will determine their potential, but Oregon’s foundation this season has been its running game. The Ducks average 5.8 yards per carry as a team (top five in the country) and the only game in which they didn’t rush for at least 100 yards was the loss to Indiana.
Player to watch: Running back Jam Miller. The easy answer here is Simpson, who has been the steadying force for the Alabama offense all year. But the reason Simpson has been the steadying force is because Alabama has one of the worst rushing offenses in the country, exposed even further with Miller banged up. Miller missed the SEC championship game after getting hurt in the regular-season finale against Auburn and was sorely missed as Alabama had minus-3 yards rushing. Miller also missed the season opener against Florida State, another poor performance for Alabama on the ground. Coincidence? A healthy Miller could be the key to a deep playoff run for the Crimson Tide.
Biggest question: The Alabama offense is not playing in rhythm or in sync in its last three Power 4 games. Two of them are losses. In addition to lacking a consistent ground game, Alabama has not played well on third down, an area where it has ranked among the top third in the country this season. In its last three Power 4 games, Alabama is just 12-of-44 on third-down opportunities, including 3-of-14 in the SEC championship game. Compare that to their first meeting this season — an Alabama victory — when the Tide went 13-of-19 on third down. Simpson maintained after the loss to Georgia that “we know we’re the best offense in the country,” but the Tide are surely not playing like it.
They can win if…: As noted above, Alabama can win if it figures out how to get its offense back on track. Some of that may start with getting healthier. In addition to Miller missing the SEC title game, Alabama played without backup running back Kevin Riley, plus tight end Josh Cuevas. Ryan Williams has disappeared the final month of the season, a troublesome trend considering this has not been a year that was great for him to begin with, starting in that opener against the Seminoles. Simpson has shown the ability to take command of games and the ability to make clutch throws in pressure-filled situations. He often has had to put this team on his back. But he can’t do it alone. — Andrea Adelson
An Oklahoma offense that ranks 104th in first downs, 107th in rushing and relies heavily on the playmaking of leading receiver Isaiah Sategna is prone to long spells of drought. In their past six games, the Sooners have punted as many times — 38 — as they did across the program’s entire 14-game schedule in 2019, the last time the program reached the CFP. When Oklahoma’s defense isn’t setting the table with turnovers, its offense tends to struggle. That didn’t cost Oklahoma in narrow late-season wins over Missouri and LSU, but it will certainly make life difficult on the Sooners against any of the high-level opponents they’ll face in the 12-team field.
Road to the playoff: After the first month of the season, Miami didn’t just seem like a clear-cut playoff team but, arguably, the best team in the country. The Canes beat Notre Dame in Week 1, toppled Florida and a ranked USF, and thumped rival Florida State to open 5-0 with three wins over then-ranked teams. But, of course, perceptions are an evolving thing in college football, and so much of that early shine began to fade when Louisville jumped out to a 14-0 lead on Oct. 17 and closed out an upset win after Carson Beck tossed his fourth interception of the game in the final minute. Another loss to SMU followed two weeks later, while those seemingly impressive wins over USF, Florida and Florida State all lost their luster as those teams racked up losses.
The committee’s first set of rankings also came just three days after Miami’s 26-20 overtime loss to SMU, a game the Canes seemed to have well in hand until late in the fourth quarter. That set up an initial No. 18 spot in the committee’s top 25, a full eight spots behind a Notre Dame team Miami beat head-to-head. At that point, the Canes seemed doomed, but a final stretch run of blowout victories has shifted perspective back in their favor — even if the ACC’s tie-breaker policy didn’t exactly make a playoff run easy.
Player to watch: Miami’s midseason woes largely centered around an offensive identity crisis. The ground game seemed out of whack, Beck’s miscues mounted, injuries piled up and the receiving corps had just one real threat. That threat, however, is freshman receiver Malachi Toney, and he has blossomed into one of the country’s most electric players. Toney racked up 84 receptions for 970 yards and a touchdown, carried 17 times for 89 yards and a score, and added two more passing touchdowns for good measure. Part of Miami’s late-season offensive resurgence was a bevy of trick plays designed around Toney’s skill set that seemed to be a direct message to the committee that things had changed for the Canes. The offense is healthier now, Mark Fletcher is back at tailback and several other receivers have taken a step forward — albeit in smaller increments — but Toney is the engine that makes it all go.
Biggest question: What version of Beck will we see in the postseason? At times, the Miami QB was sublime this year. His numbers in the Canes’ 10 wins: 83.1 Total QBR, 76% completions, 23 TD passes and 4 interceptions. But, in each of Miami’s losses, a Beck interception was the final dagger. In those two games, he threw just two TDs and six picks. The turnovers in key situations were Beck’s biggest issue in 2024 at Georgia before an injury in the SEC championship game kept him out of the playoff. This year, he has a chance at redemption — not just for a missed playoff chance a year ago but for the miscues that put Miami on the doorstep of missing out.
They can win if…: The offense has some balance. When the game has been on Beck’s shoulders, he has been prone to mistakes — both his own or the result of bad routes, dropped balls or missteps by his receivers. When the ground game has worked and Beck is able to be the director of a more finely tuned machine, Miami has been terrific. For much of the midseason struggles, the Miami offense often seemed like it was working against itself, with players even sounding frustrated with the game plan. In some ways, the No. 18 ranking in the committee’s first poll was the spark Miami needed to take the next step, push the pedal to the floor, and see what this unit can do when every player is moving in the same direction. The past four games, the Canes are averaging 38 points per game, nearly 7 yards per play and scoring touchdowns on more than 40% of their drives. — David Hale