David SchoenfieldDec 9, 2025, 07:00 AM ETCloseCovers MLB for ESPN.com Former deputy editor of Page 2 Been with ESPN.com since 1995
Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers (Trade chance: 25%)
Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres (Trade chance: Increasing!)
MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals (Trade chance: 30%)
In 2025, 369 pitchers started a game in MLB, for an average of 12.3 per team. Only 53 started at least 30 games, an average of less than two seasonlong starters per team. More injuries, more shuffling of players on and off the roster, more six-man rotations and rest days: It all means rotation depth is more important than ever — and harder to find.
As one agent recently told ESPN’s Buster Olney: “What I’m hearing when I talk to teams is pitching, pitching, pitching. Everybody is looking for pitching.”
We’ve already seen three trades for starting pitchers this offseason, with the Boston Red Sox acquiring Sonny Gray from the St. Louis Cardinals and Johan Oviedo from the Pittsburgh Pirates, and the Baltimore Orioles trading Grayson Rodriguez to the Los Angeles Angels for outfielder Taylor Ward.
Trading for an established starter requires an exchange of talent, but trades can be viewed as less risky than a team signing a free agent to a long-term, nine-figure contract. (Consider the Arizona Diamondbacks signing Corbin Burnes to a six-year, $210 million contract last offseason, but then he had Tommy John surgery after 11 starts.)
So, what other starting pitchers might get traded? With MLB’s winter meetings underway, let’s use Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan’s ranking of the top trade candidates to find the best fit for some of the potentially available pitchers. (We’ll also include their predicted chance of that player getting traded.)
State of the Mariners’ rotation: A rotation that ranked 13th in the majors in ERA and 14th in fWAR in 2025 will return all seven starters who made at least 15 starts. This group was much better in 2024, though, as Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryce Miller all spent significant time on the injured list this past season (although all ended the season healthy).
Top five prospects: SS Colt Emerson, LHP Kade Anderson, RHP Ryan Sloan, OF Jonny Farmelo, 2B Michael Arroyo
Though a Skubal trade seems unlikely, the odds are never zero. Still, the Tigers would have to be overwhelmed by an offer.
The New York Mets are the obvious big-market team in need of an ace, but they need to rebuild their roster from within rather than trade prospects and sign free agents. As Buster suggested, with the Mets’ farm system much improved, president of baseball operations David Stearns isn’t likely to blow that up for only one guaranteed year of Skubal. It’s in the Mets’ best interest to keep their prospects and then wait a year to make a run at Skubal in free agency.
Another team to watch: New York Yankees. Their farm system (25th) is weak and the rotation projects as one of the best with Gerrit Cole eventually returning, but never count out the Yankees. They have young starters, such as Luis Gil or Cam Schlittler, whom they could use to anchor a deal.
State of the Red Sox’s rotation: They’ve added Gray and Oviedo to a rotation that already features AL Cy Young runner-up Garrett Crochet and solid right-hander Brayan Bello, but Lucas Giolito is a free agent, and Tanner Houck will miss the 2026 season after Tommy John surgery. On the back of Crochet, the Red Sox’s rotation ranked 12th in ERA and fWAR.
Top five prospects: SS Franklin Arias, LHP Payton Tolle, RHP Kyson Witherspoon, RHP Luis Perales, RHP Juan Valera
Another team to watch: Baltimore Orioles. Their farm system (11th) has weakened a bit, but we’ve seen the Brewers and Orioles make this trade before (the aforementioned Burns trade), and the O’s are unlikely to make a major pitching upgrade in free agency.
Top five prospects: OF Josue De Paula, OF Eduardo Quintero, OF Zyhir Hope, OF Mike Sirota, SS Alex Freeland
The Reds are one of the few teams with pitching depth at the MLB level, although they are more likely to trade Brady Singer (he’s in his final season before free agency) than Greene, who is signed through 2028 and set to make a team-friendly $8.3 million in 2026. It’ll take a lot to acquire him, but guess who has a very large fortune: the Dodgers.
None of those outfielders have played more than six games above High-A, so they’re unlikely to help the Reds in 2026. Still, there’s a possible match here, and the Dodgers know how to swing big. They could add Greene to their already superstar-laden rotation and then perhaps look to flip Tyler Glasnow to clear a spot for Greene and trim some salary.
State of the Cubs’ rotation: Meh. The Cubs finished eighth in the majors in rotation ERA, but 17th in fWAR and 23rd in strikeout rate (the lowest of any playoff team). A good defense helped the rotation to a .269 average on balls in play, good for the lowest in the majors. With Shota Imanaga back on a one-year deal, everyone returns — plus, they’ll hope to get Justin Steele back in the second half.
Top five prospects: C/DH Moises Ballesteros, OF Owen Caissie, SS Jefferson Rojas, RHP Jaxon Wiggins, OF Kevin Alcantara
Though he was not listed as a trade candidate in our rankings, recent reports have the Padres listening to offers for Pivetta, who is coming off an outstanding season in which he went 13-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 190 strikeouts in 181⅔ innings to finish sixth in the NL Cy Young voting. His salary jumps up to $20.5 million for 2026 after a low base number in 2025, but he has an opt-out clause, making this a likely one-year move.
Another team to watch: Arizona Diamondbacks. With Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly free agents (and Burnes injured), the D-backs need a top-of-the-rotation starter. Their farm system (13th) added a lot of depth this past trade deadline.
State of the Tigers’ rotation: Thanks to Skubal, the Tigers ranked 11th in ERA and seventh in fWAR (Skubal was worth 6.6 of the team total of 13.8). Jack Flaherty, coming off a 4.64 ERA, exercised his $20 million player option, so he’s back, but even if they keep Skubal, indications signal that the Tigers are looking for a starter.
Top five prospects: SS Kevin McGonigle, CF Max Clark, SS Bryce Rainer, C Josue Briceno, RHP Troy Melton
Either way, his swing-and-miss stuff (185 K’s in 159⅔ innings) is what teams seek. McGonigle and Clark aren’t going anywhere, and Rainer will also be tough to trade, but the Tigers have other infield depth (Max Anderson, Jordan Yost), plus three catchers among their top-10 prospects. They also have depth on their 40-man roster to include — and that’s what the Nationals are desperate to add.
Another team to watch: Tampa Bay Rays. The usually reliable Tampa Bay rotation fell to 15th in ERA and 16th in strikeout rate. Getting back Shane McClanahan will help, but that’s a big if, so if they want to get back into the AL East race, they probably need to add a starter — and Gore’s salary still fits their payroll.
State of the Phillies’ rotation: The Phillies ranked second in the majors in ERA and had a big lead in fWAR, but Ranger Suarez is a free agent, and Zack Wheeler’s health makes his future unknown. Aaron Nola is also coming off a bad season, and top prospect Andrew Painter is hardly a sure thing after posting a 5.40 ERA at Triple-A. They might re-sign Suarez, but DH Kyle Schwarber is the top priority, plus they might want to bring back catcher J.T. Realmuto.
Top five prospects: SS Aidan Miller, RHP Andrew Painter, CF Justin Crawford, RHP Gage Wood, 2B Aroon Escobar
If Cole Ragans and Bubic are healthy, which should be the case heading into spring training, even though both missed time in 2025, the Royals have some rotation depth. Though Bubic had a breakout season in 2025 with a 2.55 ERA in his 20 starts, he’s probably the starter most likely to be traded since he’s entering his walk year. The Royals need an outfielder who can hit, after finishing 29th in the majors in OPS from their outfielders.
The problem with acquiring an outfielder: go through every team’s roster and only the Red Sox have any obvious excess of quality outfielders to trade, as it’s a pretty thin position across the majors — and Boston won’t trade three seasons of Jarren Duran for one season of Bubic.
Another team to watch: San Francisco Giants. They’ll have only three starters back who made more than 10 starts this past season, although their farm system (24th) isn’t strong and the outfield depth isn’t strong at the major league level, unless they trade a player like Heliot Ramos and replace him with a free agent.
State of the Brewers’ rotation: The Brewers finished third in ERA but just 10th in fWAR, so the rotation probably overachieved in ERA. Peralta is a trade candidate, while Jose Quintana (3.96 ERA in 24 starts) is a free agent. Brandon Woodruff accepted the qualifying offer, so he’s back — and hopefully healthy. Jacob Misiorowski will also get his first full season in the majors.
Teams will have to examine his medical reports, as he has battled injuries and missed three weeks in September because of a sore elbow before returning for two final starts. But Cabrera’s upside remains even higher than what it was in 2025 thanks to his array of three plus secondary pitches in his curveball, slider and changeup.
The Brewers could trade away Peralta and then trade for Cabrera, who will make less than $4 million this season — right up the Brewers’ alley. The Brewers not only have a strong system deep in infielders — which the Marlins need after ranking 27th in OPS at first base, 10th at second base, 19th at third base and 23rd at shortstop — but plenty of MLB-ready pitching depth they could use to swing a 3-for-1 type of deal for Cabrera.
The most recent time a star pitcher got traded in his final year before free agency was when the Milwaukee Brewers traded Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles in the 2023-24 offseason. The Brewers got Joey Ortiz, ESPN’s No. 91 prospect entering 2024, plus DL Hall, who had some major league experience. Burnes was good in 2023 — eighth in the National League Cy Young voting — but he wasn’t quite at the level of Skubal, who has won back-to-back AL Cy Young Awards. A team looking to acquire Skubal better have at least two top-100 prospects or similar young talent already in the majors.