play0:52Jason Robertson scores on the power play for Dallas StarsJason Robertson capitalizes on the power play
play0:33Tage Thompson tallies goal for Buffalo Sabres on the power playTage Thompson scores power-play goal vs. Flames
play0:32Macklin Celebrini’s hat trick wins it for Sharks in OTMacklin Celebrini scores on the power play for San Jose Sharks
Jason Robertson scores on the power play for Dallas StarsJason Robertson capitalizes on the power play
Tage Thompson tallies goal for Buffalo Sabres on the power playTage Thompson scores power-play goal vs. Flames
Macklin Celebrini’s hat trick wins it for Sharks in OTMacklin Celebrini scores on the power play for San Jose Sharks
Ryan S. ClarkDec 10, 2025, 07:00 AM ETCloseRyan S. Clark is an NHL reporter for ESPN.Follow on X
Team USA is facing many uncertainties entering the Dec. 31 roster deadline, which is reflected in my roster projection.
It’s a rather lengthy conversation that starts with how much injuries could impact what Team USA does with its final roster. Adam Fox (upper body) is out for an indefinite period, and Charlie McAvoy (puck to the face) could return later this week. There is also a quartet of players recovering from long-term injuries:
My projection takes those injuries into account, with the idea that those five players should be available for the Olympics. But there are other selection discussions that go beyond these five players.
Will he make the final cut if Team USA has a full complement of players, or is he in the mix only if there’s an injury at forward?
Robertson and his potential addition (or omission) has become a talking point because of what he has done since Nov. 5 (the date of my earlier roster projections). No player has scored more goals in that time than Robertson, and Nathan MacKinnon is the only player who has more points than Robertson within that window.
Team USA general manager Bill Guerin told The Athletic in late November that Robertson is doing all he can to make a compelling case. Guerin also acknowledged that there are only so many roster spots. “And when you look at it, there’s so many guys that are close in the way they’re performing, in their statistics, in their body of work,” Guerin said then. “It could come down to fit. What do we need?”
Jason Robertson scores on the power play for Dallas Stars
Trocheck’s play is a contrast to his New York Rangers teammate J.T. Miller. There’s still a chance Miller could make the final roster given he is another two-way presence that can be used on the wing or down the middle. But his selection has been complicated by the fact that he’s averaging 0.62 points this season, despite having a 0.81 points-per-game career average.
Tage Thompson tallies goal for Buffalo Sabres on the power play
Having three defensemen who are injured or recovering from injuries means that the U.S. will need to stay nimble right until Dec. 31. They have some options on the blue line, too:
One area in which it appears Team USA could find continuity is goaltending. As I see it, the U.S. will retain the three goaltenders it used at the 4 Nations Face-Off: Jake Oettinger, Jeremy Swayman and Hellebuyck, in the event he’s healthy. Joey Daccord and Spencer Knight have created compelling cases for why they could pose a selection discussion (particularly if Hellebuyck’s availability is in question).
Swayman, Oettinger and Knight are fifth, sixth and seventh, respectively, in GSAA among goalies in 5-on-5 play (min. 300 minutes), per Natural Stat Trick. Daccord is 13th, and Hellebuyck, who last played Nov. 15, is 19th.
Creating the strongest and most strategic lineup possible is the objective for every front office. This particular projection is reflective of what Canada’s front office believes it can achieve, by creating a roster that allows coach Jon Cooper to have as many options as possible at his disposal based on his game-by-game strategy.
Many of Canada’s forwards have shown they can fit within that structure: They can score, create for themselves, create for others around them and defend in ways that allow them to be trusted in any scenario.
Determining how forwards like Connor Bedard, Macklin Celebrini, Anthony Cirelli, Seth Jarvis, Wyatt Johnston, Mark Stone and Tom Wilson fit into those plans appears to be the primary challenge facing Canada’s front office ahead of the roster deadline.
Why? Because it’s essentially choosing between having the additional personnel that fits within a proven plan, versus having players who can fit in to an altered strategy should circumstances change on the ground in Italy.
Cirelli, Jarvis and Stone are two-way players who can both score and create for teammates, but their defensive zone impact is just as crucial. Bedard and Johnston can provide instant offense, and Celebrini is a blend of both; he has shown he can perform highly in every area of the ice.
Wilson is an outlier, in that he might be the most unique forward of this group. He provides Canada with one more tall and heavy presence up front at 6-4 and 225 pounds, and also gives the team another forward who can create problems at the net front.
My projection goes with Bedard, Celebrini, Stone and Wilson to make the final roster because it is a way of getting all those items. Morgan Geekie and Bo Horvat, who could each finish with more than 50 goals this season, may give the Canadian front office some sleepless nights before the deadline.
Macklin Celebrini’s hat trick wins it for Sharks in OT
Macklin Celebrini scores on the power play for San Jose Sharks
On defense, the emphasis is on players who can possess the puck, create for others and score goals. They must be able to be used in numerous situations while logging heavy minutes.
Experience and size are two of the assets they lost with Alex Pietrangelo, who is out recovering from a long-term hip injury. My projection gives Canada five defensemen who are each taller than 6-2, with the idea that there are other options to consider, like Evan Bouchard, Jakob Chychrun, Mike Matheson and Matthew Schaefer. Canada also has 6-0 Brandon Montour to consider.
Continuity and game strategy could be the hallmark for how Canada assembles its roster. That is also what makes the situation around goaltending difficult, because there’s been a lack of continuity (and long-term strategy).
The three goalies Canada brought to the 4 Nations Face-Off — Jordan Binnington, Adin Hill and Sam Montembeault — have had challenging 2025-26 seasons. A lower-body injury sent Hill to injured reserve in October, and he is possibly weeks away from returning. Montembeault has the worst GSAA of any goalie in the NHL in 5-on-5 play (min. 300 minutes) as of Dec. 8.
Of course, one of the counters to those questions is that Binnington has a history of overcoming his inconsistencies to win important games. He had a combined .895 save percentage in December and January last season before backstopping Canada to a 4 Nations Face-Off title. He also led the Blues to a Stanley Cup win in 2019, including a clinching victory on the road in Game 7.
Binnington recently told The Canadian Press that he was “aware of what’s going on, and you want to put yourself in the best position to make that team and make it easy for the people making the decision.” He added, “At the same time, I feel like I’ve been around the league for a decent amount of time, and I know that if I control my inner world and what I need to do to feel at my best, then the rest will take care of itself.”
He made the cut (and the starting nod) in my projection, but the other two spots bring new faces. Logan Thompson entered Dec. 8 ranked first in GSAA among those with more than 10 games, and Scott Wedgewood was third, per Natural Stat Trick. Those two round out the goalie battery for Canada.
Could others like Jake Allen, Mackenzie Blackwood, Tristan Jarry and Darcy Kuemper present a case before New Year’s Eve?
Sweden has quite a few moving parts it must manage. The need for consistency is even more crucial upon knowing that the Dec. 31 roster deadline is quickly approaching.
Deliberating between those three — with the idea that Joel Eriksson Ek can anchor the fourth line — also comes as Sweden awaits news on William Karlsson. He sustained a lower-body injury in mid-November that led to him being moved to long-term injured reserve on Dec. 6. Karlsson makes the final roster in this projection, with the idea he could be an extra forward who can play down the middle or on the wing.
Sweden has seen progress in other areas of the lineup. Gabriel Landeskog went from three points in his first 12 games to having nine points in 13 games in November. Two-way veteran forward Marcus Johansson is averaging 0.69 points per game, one of the strongest offensive campaigns of any Sweden player.
This could result in Sweden’s front office having a difficult decision to make when it comes to finalizing its forward group. Among those left off my roster, Andre Burakovsky, William Eklund and Emil Heineman have each made cases, and Rickard Rakell could also be under consideration despite the fact that he broke his hand in mid-November and is expected to return around mid-January.
The only injury concern facing Sweden’s blue line was Victor Hedman, who returned on Dec. 6 after a nearly monthlong absence. And in fact, my projected roster here has Sweden taking the same D group it used at the 4 Nations Face-Off, plus Hampus Lindholm.
Now comes the most interesting question facing Sweden: Is Minnesota Wild rookie Jesper Wallstedt going to Milan-Cortina?
As of Dec. 8, Wallstedt is in the top three in the NHL in GSAA, goals-against average and save percentage among goalies with more than 10 games played. He has worked in tandem with fellow Swede Filip Gustavsson to create one of the best duos in the NHL. I’m sending both Gustavsson and Wallstedt to Italy.
Jacob Markstrom and Linus Ullmark have not fared up to expectation this season. Both entered Dec. 8 carrying save percentages below .880. Ullmark’s performance is particularly puzzling; the Ottawa Senators are among the top five teams in the NHL in fewest scoring chances allowed per 60, fewest high-danger chances allowed per 60 and fewest shots allowed per 60, and the former Vezina Trophy winner’s save percentage is a career-low .877.