Kiley McDanielDec 9, 2025, 06:30 PM ETCloseESPN MLB Insider Kiley McDaniel covers MLB prospects, the MLB Draft and more, including trades and free agency. Has worked for three MLB teams. Co-author of Author of ‘Future Value’ Follow on X
MLB held its fourth annual draft lottery at the winter meetings in Orlando on Tuesday, and the Chicago White Sox landed the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 MLB draft.
It’s still very early in the draft process, but it’s a perfect time for a quick five-pick mini-mock draft to see how things could play out in July. Four of the five players in last winter’s edition of this exercise landed in the top 11 picks on draft day, so it’s fair to think we have a reasonable idea of how the top picks will play out even though a lot can change in the seven months ahead.
Here is my early prediction for the first five picks in the 2026 MLB draft, after consulting with industry sources combined with my own scouting.
He is still a standout defender but now both his (above-average) hit and (plus) power tools have developed, allowing evaluators to go back over the past decade and find comps at the tops of previous drafts, such as Dansby Swanson or Troy Tulowitzki. Cholowsky has a pretty solid lead on the pack for the top pick right now, but it isn’t insurmountable due to the solid group of up-the-middle, high-upside talents in this class.
Emerson has been touted as the top prep prospect in the 2026 class for years and has held that title through the summer showcase season and fall workouts. He’s a 6-foot-2, left-handed hitting shortstop who projects as above average to plus at almost everything on the field. He might not be truly plus-plus at anything right now, but he’s still only 17 years old, so that could develop.
Burress was a pick to click of mine in the 2023 draft, ranking No. 40 on my board (among the highest ranks among media and teams), but ultimately proving unsignable to the teams that also had him in that range. He stands only 5-foot-8, so impact power wasn’t expected at that point, but he had more power than you might think given his size, along with a long track record of hitting for average, plus speed and center-field defense.
He is a 6-foot-3 center/right field tweener for now who is above average at almost everything in the batter’s box, especially his ability to lift/pull the ball in games, though his swing can get too uphill at times.
The Pirates seem to be turning the corner with Konnor Griffin and Bubba Chandler joining Paul Skenes & Co. while they’re also looking to spend money in free agency, so I see them leaning into the college position-player group that is a strength in this class.
Given his long track record of being an elite prospect and being in the most desirable player demographic in the draft, he’s a consensus talent in this pick area, even for teams that don’t normally take high school players at the top. The Rays are not that team, taking a prep shortstop in the top two rounds in each of the past three drafts; Tampa Bay also loves left-handed hitters. Emerson is the rare prep prospect who is a safer pick than the vast majority of college players but also comes with more upside.
CloseESPN MLB Insider Kiley McDaniel covers MLB prospects, the MLB Draft and more, including trades and free agency. Has worked for three MLB teams. Co-author of Author of ‘Future Value’ Follow on X
The lottery couldn’t have gone better for the White Sox after a 102-loss season, landing the top pick in a year in which there is a clear preseason favorite to be the top pick. Chase Meidroth and Colson Montgomery are solid shortstop options in the big leagues with Caleb Bonemer and Billy Carlson as top-100 types in the low minors, but Cholowsky would give the White Sox a great problem: too many good players at the most important position on the field.
2. Tampa Bay Rays: Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth Christian (Texas) HS, Texas commit
4. San Francisco Giants: Drew Burress, CF, Georgia Tech
Drew Burress lights the bull with 3-run blast for Georgia Tech (0:47)Drew Burress smashes a three-run homer to left, bringing the Yellow Jackets up 10-2 against Cal. (0:47)