Bill ConnellyDec 11, 2025, 11:40 AM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Follow on X
play2:15Is Liverpool’s win vs. Inter a statement towards Mo Salah?Craig Burley discusses the impact of Liverpool’s 1-0 win vs. Inter in relation to Mohamed Salah’s situation at the club.
play1:31Leboeuf and Burley disagree on Arsenal’s formFrank Leboeuf and Craig Burley debate how well Arsenal are playing after they continued their perfect record in this season’s Champions League.
play1:06Is Thomas Frank slowly improving Tottenham?Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens react to Tottenham’s 3-0 victory over Slavia Prague in the UEFA Champions League.
How long does Xabi Alonso have left at Real Madrid? (1:12)Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens react to Real Madrid’s 2-1 defeat to Manchester City in the UEFA Champions League. (1:12)
Is Liverpool’s win vs. Inter a statement towards Mo Salah?Craig Burley discusses the impact of Liverpool’s 1-0 win vs. Inter in relation to Mohamed Salah’s situation at the club.
Craig Burley discusses the impact of Liverpool’s 1-0 win vs. Inter in relation to Mohamed Salah’s situation at the club.
Leboeuf and Burley disagree on Arsenal’s formFrank Leboeuf and Craig Burley debate how well Arsenal are playing after they continued their perfect record in this season’s Champions League.
Frank Leboeuf and Craig Burley debate how well Arsenal are playing after they continued their perfect record in this season’s Champions League.
Is Thomas Frank slowly improving Tottenham?Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens react to Tottenham’s 3-0 victory over Slavia Prague in the UEFA Champions League.
Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens react to Tottenham’s 3-0 victory over Slavia Prague in the UEFA Champions League.
The 10 happiest surprises of the Champions League so far
Well, consider it “lesson learned” because the heavyweights haven’t messed around this season. Of the current top 12 teams in the Opta rankings, 11 are in the Champions League field, and all of them currently have at least 10 points. In 15th place, Barcelona is the lowest of these teams in the table, and they’re only three points out of fifth. Even Liverpool, who have battled poor form, misfit pieces and off-the-pitch drama, is a comfortable ninth, three points from second.
The race for top-eight seeds will be pretty interesting over the final two matchdays, and slow-starting teams like Jose Mourinho’s Benfica and Olympiacos are heating up the battle for the last few spots in the knockout rounds, but things are going mostly according to plan.
– UCL Talking Points: Liverpool better without Salah? – Reaction: Man City’s win piles more pressure on Madrid’s Alonso – Lindop: Slot vindicated as Liverpool win at Inter Milan
We’ve still seen some pleasant surprises in the first six matchdays, however, whether it be teams, players or individual matches. So while we wait to find out if Xabi Alonso is still employed by Real Madrid for the next Champions League matchday in mid-January, let’s walk through some of my favorite surprises of the campaign.
Here’s what the enormous league phase table currently looks like, with each team’s points and goal differential, plus their odds of both advancing to the knockout rounds and winning the title, per Opta’s supercomputer.
We have 18 teams at 97.6% or higher to advance, with another four at 80% or higher. The other 14 teams in the field are basically fighting over two to three spots at this point, and we have teams like Benfica and Olympiacos moving up and teams like Qarabag quickly running out of gas.
1. Dominik Szoboszlai, Liverpool: When Liverpool made its epic wave of signings this past offseason, I was worried that the Hungarian international was going to be the odd man out. They were suddenly overflowing with new attacking talent, and their midfield duo of Ryan Gravenberch and Alexis Mac Allister worked so well last season that it was easy to envision Szoboszlai getting squeezed out.
It was, of course, Szoboszlai who stepped up and nailed the late penalty that gave Liverpool a 1-0 win at Inter on Tuesday. It was a huge result, one that somewhat offset their terrible loss to PSV in Matchday 5 and bumped them back in position to fight for a top-eight finish and a bye to the round of 16. He also led the team in progressive carries and chances created, but you probably already guessed that.
Auba has been a delight in all competitions this season — he’s averaging 1.05 G+A per 90 minutes in Ligue 1 play, which is his best average since, incredibly, 2017-18, the season in which he moved from Borussia Dortmund to Arsenal. (He was at only 0.64 per 90 in Saudi Arabia last year.) And he has raised his level even further, to 1.19 G+A per 90, in the Champions League. This is world-class stuff.
3. PSV Eindhoven 6, Napoli 2 and PSV 4, Liverpool 1: You cannot question PSV’s commitment to entertainment. They’ve gotten thumped a couple of times, but they proved in both Matchday 3 against Napoli and Matchday 5 at Liverpool that when their counterattacking game is rolling, they can beat anyone in this competition. They won’t make a title push, but you do not want to draw them in an early knockout round. You might blow them out, but they can easily do the same to you.
Playing with three at the back asks your wide midfielders to basically play as two full players at once, and Khalaili is doing exactly that; he’s one of the breakout stars of the tournament in my eyes.
(Note: These rankings are based on my personal opinions for where teams stand at the moment: it’s not intended to directly reflect the current table.)
1. Arsenal. The defense was looser than expected in their 3-0 win over Club Brugge — Brugge attempted 18 shots and forced seven David Raya saves — but Arsenal is mastering this “easing to an early win” thing.
2. Bayern Munich. Against Sporting, Bayern did what Bayern do: Land a flurry of shots to score a knockout. It didn’t happen until after halftime, and Sporting briefly took the lead with a hospitable Joshua Kimmich own goal, but three goals in 13 minutes — including the latest technically perfect strike from Lennart Karl — did the deed.
3. Manchester City (up four spots from Matchday 5). They’re too reliant on Erling Haaland’s goal scoring in attack, they have moments of total defensive fragility … and they’re now top-four in this competition and two points out of first in the Premier League, and they’ve outright won 15 of their last 20 matches in all competitions. Oh, to be so flawed.
4. PSG (down 1). The xG god is an unstable and fickle god at times. Here are PSG’s shot, xG and goal totals from their last four matches in all competitions.
– vs. Tottenham: 15 shots, 1.85 xG, five goals (5-3 win) – at Monaco: 17 shots, 1.33 xG, zero goals (1-0 loss) – vs. Rennes: 20 shots, 2.23 xG, five goals (5-0 win) – at Athletic Club: 18 shots, 2.05 xG, zero goals (0-0 draw)
Distribute those goals differently, and it’s four comfortable wins. Instead, it’s two wins and a draw. They’re fine. Frustrated, but fine.
They haven’t won since. They drew with Arsenal, which was obviously fine, but a draw with Bournemouth and losses to Leeds and Atalanta are less encouraging. They’ve been outscored 6-2 in this four-game span, and it hasn’t been particularly bad luck — their xG differential is minus-3.2. The last time that Cole Palmer played and they actually won? The Club World Cup final almost five months ago. Weird team, weird season.
6. Inter Milan (down 1). Disappointing performance on Tuesday. Liverpool were wobbly and dramatic, Inter had won three straight matches by a combined 11-1, and Inter just … didn’t do anything for most of 90 minutes. They managed just one counterattacking shot attempt against Liverpool’s dreadful transition defense, and they created just 0.5 xG in all.
7. Real Madrid (down 1). They obviously missed Kylian Mbappe against Manchester City on Wednesday, but they got enough from Vinícius Júnior and Jude Bellingham (seven shots, 1.04 xG, zero goals) to have hoped for something better than a 2-1 loss. They ramped up the pressure over the last 20 minutes and forced six late saves from Gianluigi Donnarumma, but the Bernabeu magic never kicked in.
8. Tottenham Hotspur (up 3). Spurs had won just one of eight matches, and the heat was building on manager Thomas Frank, but in the last four days they’ve beaten Brentford and Slavia Prague by a combined 5-0 with almost no drama whatsoever. Granted, two of their goals against Slavia were penalties, but youngsters Xavi Simons and Archie Gray have both looked good in the midfield, and left back Djed Spence is pushing the ball like crazy. It’s something!
10. Barcelona (up 2). Hansi Flick’s high line worked to perfection against Eintracht Frankfurt on Tuesday, as the Bundesliga side was caught offside more times (eight) than they had shot attempts (six). But the attack couldn’t create much value: Raphinha, Robert Lewandowski and Lamine Yamal attempted eight shots worth just 0.4 xG. But they won anyway because Jules Koundé got free for two headed goals?
11. Borussia Dortmund (down 3). They were a bit unfortunate in Wednesday’s 2-2 draw with Bodo/Glimt — total xG: BVB 2.89, Glimt 1.38 — but even with Niko Kovacs’ attempts to increase stability, BVB remain randomly fragile in defense. Bodo/Glimt can’t defend, but they sure can pounce on fragility.
12. Newcastle (down 3). After a slow start, they saved themselves and took control at Leverkusen, only to give up a late goal and settle for a 2-2 draw. That’s basically Newcastle’s 2025-26 story: solid, high-potential and a little bit disappointing.
13. Atalanta. After Tuesday’s win over Chelsea, they’ve lost only two of their last seven matches against English teams. And they did it by slowly tilting the pitch and taking control:
14. Liverpool (up 1). Liverpool desperately needed some positivity, and they found it by deploying an old-school 4-4-2 and beating Inter with a (reasonably tame) penalty in the 88th minute. I guess winning at the San Siro doesn’t have to be pretty.