play0:47Crosby scores from one knee for the PenguinsSidney Crosby deflects the puck into the net on one knee to give the Penguins the lead.
play1:08Nathan MacKinnon skates through Rangers defense to score dazzling OT winnerNathan MacKinnon makes a sweet move and scores on the backhand to give the Avalanche an overtime win.
Crosby scores from one knee for the PenguinsSidney Crosby deflects the puck into the net on one knee to give the Penguins the lead.
Nathan MacKinnon skates through Rangers defense to score dazzling OT winnerNathan MacKinnon makes a sweet move and scores on the backhand to give the Avalanche an overtime win.
Nathan MacKinnon makes a sweet move and scores on the backhand to give the Avalanche an overtime win.
Greg WyshynskiDec 9, 2025, 07:00 AM ETCloseGreg Wyshynski is ESPN’s senior NHL writer.Follow on X
play0:45Cole Caufield scores goal for CanadiensCole Caufield lights the lamp for Canadiens
play0:47Seth Jarvis nets goal for HurricanesSeth Jarvis lights the lamp for Hurricanes
play0:49Beckett Sennecke scores goal for DucksBeckett Sennecke tallies goal vs. Blackhawks
Morgan Geekie scores goal for Bruins (0:48)Morgan Geekie lights the lamp (0:48)
Every NHL season, there are hot starts and budding trends that feel like they’re set in concrete early on but are shattered into dust by the time the Stanley Cup playoffs start.
Conversely, there are early-season developments that end up being harbingers for the rest of the campaign.
Here are trends for all 32 teams from the 2025-26 season thus far that we’re testing with our patented (OK, patent-pending) “Trend-o-meter” to see how valid they are — from certain to stick (10) to probably just a blip (1).
After a 33-goal season, Geekie was a preeminent regression candidate in NHL preseason predictions, with some expecting him to top out at around 26 goals. As it stands, he should surpass that total by the end of December.
Through 30 games, Geekie has 22 goals. It took him until March 6 last season before scoring his 22nd goal. Geekie’s shooting percentage (27.5%) is actually higher than his seemingly unfathomable average from last season — 22%, after a previous career high of 13.1%. He’s thriving despite not having the same percentage of offensive zone starts as last season and — perhaps most surprisingly — without David Pastrnak in the Bruins’ lineup.
Pasta missed five games recently. Geekie scored five goals in his absence. The Boston offense this season has been “Geek and destroy.”
If there’s progress to report with the Sabres, it’s that there’s finally good news to balance out the usual bad news … but there’s still bad news. Through 28 games, Buffalo was tied for ninth in goals per 60 minutes (2.78) at 5-on-5. Unfortunately, they were last in the NHL in goals against at even strength (3.06). Their penalty kill? Absolutely sick, leading the league in efficiency (87.2%) entering Monday night. Their power play? No so much, ranking 21st in the NHL (18.1%).
The Sabres are getting great performances from motivated forwards like Alex Tuch (wants free agent riches), Tage Thompson (wants Team USA roster spot) and Josh Doan (wants it to be called the “Josh Doan trade,” with due respect to JJ Peterka). Alas, the same can’t be said of defenseman like Owen Power and Bowen Byram. At last their goaltending has been consistent, in that all three netminders they’ve used have played around replacement level.
All that established, if they can turn some of these lagging aspects of their game around, it’s not impossible to see Buffalo sneak into the playoffs for the first time since 2011. But through 28 games, that still seems like a big “if.”
After a revelatory 4 Nations Face-Off performance, Dylan Larkin has been an MVP for the Red Wings, with 31 points in 29 games. His linemate Lucas Raymond has been just as proficient (31 points). Alex DeBrincat has produced well too (14 goals and 30 points overall) playing mostly away from Larkin while picking up 10 points on the power play.
There’s still a lot of runway left in the season for some of Detroit’s slumping players to flip the switch or for GM Steve Yzerman to address these depth issues. But as of now, there’s only a handful of players giving Detroit its offensive wings.
It’s hard to really get a handle on what the Panthers are with this lineup. Their underlying numbers are respectable in front of goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky that’s been porous and well below replacement levels. But Bobrovsky is the embodiment of the Panthers: Does it really matter what his regular-season numbers are as long as he enables them to make the postseason cut and becomes Playoff Bob again?
As long as Tkachuk is back soon, they should still make that cut. And who’s betting against Florida if they do?
Like so many other American-born NHL players, Caufield has a giant carrot dangling in front of him this season, as he tries to make a closing argument on an Olympic team roster spot. That argument: An 11-game point streak in which he has scored 12 points overall, continuing an offensive campaign that should result in the diminutive forward setting new career highs.
Caufield set new personal standards last season with 37 goals and 70 points. After Sunday’s action, Stathletes has Caufield projected for 43 goals and 82 points this season. A good portion of credit should go to center Nick Suzuki, with whom Caufield continues to have indelible chemistry. But it’s Caufield who continues to create his own chances and shoot the lights out (20.3% shooting percentage). Even if he doesn’t earn a ticket to Milan, this pace has him on track for a career year.
Cole Caufield scores goal for CanadiensCole Caufield lights the lamp for Canadiens
Last season, it felt like the Senators had solved their longstanding goaltending issues. They finished seventh in the NHL in team save percentage after having acquired Linus Ullmark from the Bruins and handed him a four-year, $33 million contract extension with a full no-movement clause. One year later, the Senators have the same team save percentage as the Oilers (.870) after 28 games. Which is not ideal.
Ullmark has shouldered much of the blame for that with an .877 save percentage in 21 starts. Money Puck has him at minus-10.3 goals saved above expected in all situations, which is worst in the league. Evolving Hockey has him at minus-8.7 goals saved above replacement, to quantify how much he’s theoretically cost his team. Rookie backup Leevi Merilainen hasn’t been much better, with a GAR of minus-4.5 and an .876 save percentage.
The good news is that Ullmark has had a save percentage north of .900 in seven of his past nine appearances. If that continues — and he continues to make Superman stick saves from the bench — Ottawa’s goaltending will ascend from the NHL’s basement.
That the Lightning are atop the Atlantic Division after 28 games is nothing short of miraculous given the amount of talent that has missed time in the lineup. Nikita Kucherov and Andrei Vasilevskiy recently joined a list that’s included Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, Erik Cernak and Point. Although when Point has played, he hasn’t been himself.
It’s one of the season’s most inexplicable slumps: Point, a player who has scored well over a point per game in the past three seasons, has struggled to 11 points in 21 games so far for the Lightning. This is a potential 90-point center averaging 0.52 points per game. Hopefully his recent absence from the lineup gave him a chance to heal up and reset. It’s hard to imagine a player this talented will remain this frosty for much longer.
It seemed like the minute the Blue Jays lost the World Series, the Leafs could no longer hide from scrutiny over their middling start. What was wrong with Auston Matthews? What happened to the goaltending? How badly did they miss Mitch Marner and insufficiently replace him in the offseason? Should head coach Craig Berube lose his job? Should GM Brad Treliving follow him out the door?
Things have quieted down just a bit with a recent 5-1-1 stretch that included quality wins over Florida, Carolina and Tampa Bay. Before Monday’s win over the Lightning, the Leafs had just a 15% chance of making the Stanley Cup playoffs, per Stathletes. But they remain an offensively impactful team (3.34 goals per game, fifth in the NHL) whose defensive numbers should improve with better goaltending.
As usual, the Leafs are never as good or as bad as many will declare during any given season. But there are some danger signs for Toronto in this campaign — not the least being the surprising depth of contenders in the Atlantic Division and the East overall this season.
Jarvis is another one of those players with Olympic consideration who has absolutely sprinted statistically at the start of the season. Jarvis, who made the Team Canada 4 Nations Face-Off roster, tallied 16 goals in his first 28 games. It took him until Jan. 20 last season to amass that total.
Topping his career high of 33 goals seems likely. Stathletes projects he’ll get near 40 goals. But given his start, could Jarvis threaten the Hurricanes’ record for goals in a season? Eric Staal set that standard with 45 goals in 82 games in 2005-06. Based on his current goals per game output, Jarvis is on pace for 47 goals this season. He’s got a shot, even if it’s a long shot.
Seth Jarvis nets goal for HurricanesSeth Jarvis lights the lamp for Hurricanes
At a minimum, the hope before the season was that 24-year-old Jet Greaves could solidify a shaky goaltending situation in Columbus. Ideally, Greaves would take the starter’s job from Elvis Merzlikins and run with it.
Through 17 games, Greaves has Columbus squarely in the middle of the pack in team save percentage, while Greaves himself has a .907 save percentage and a 2.71 goals-against average in 17 games, compared to 12 games for Merzlikins. He’s not the full-fledged starter yet, as coach Dean Evason has alternated them. But he’s making his case, with 13 goals saved above expected.
Hughes played his final game last season on March 2 before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. The Devils were 33-23-6. They would go 9-10-1 down the stretch to make the playoff cut before losing to Carolina in five games in the first round.