play2:43What is the likelihood of the Chiefs making the playoffs?Rich Eisen outlines what the Kansas City Chiefs have to do to make the postseason.
play0:48Stephen A.: The Cowboys will win out and still miss playoffsStephen A. Smith breaks down the implications of the Cowboys’ loss to the Lions on “Thursday Night Football.”
play1:11Can Sam Darnold win a big game for the Seahawks?Damien Woody and Rex Ryan question whether Sam Darnold can deliver in big games for the Seahawks.
play1:33Jeff Saturday: Awful that Myles Garrett will break sack record on a bad teamThe “Get Up” crew laments Myles Garrett’s greatness being wasted on a bad Browns team.
play2:43Stephen A. takes Orlovsky to task for his trust in Jordan LoveStephen A. Smith explains why he’s not ready to trust Jordan Love in big games and calls out Dan Orlovsky for his level of trust in Love.
play2:20Why Stefon Diggs is key to Stephen A. not favoring Bills over PatsStephen A. Smith looks at Stefon Diggs’ role in his decision to not take the Bills over the Patriots this weekend.
What is the likelihood of the Chiefs making the playoffs?Rich Eisen outlines what the Kansas City Chiefs have to do to make the postseason.
Stephen A.: The Cowboys will win out and still miss playoffsStephen A. Smith breaks down the implications of the Cowboys’ loss to the Lions on “Thursday Night Football.”
Stephen A. Smith breaks down the implications of the Cowboys’ loss to the Lions on “Thursday Night Football.”
Can Sam Darnold win a big game for the Seahawks?Damien Woody and Rex Ryan question whether Sam Darnold can deliver in big games for the Seahawks.
Jeff Saturday: Awful that Myles Garrett will break sack record on a bad teamThe “Get Up” crew laments Myles Garrett’s greatness being wasted on a bad Browns team.
Stephen A. takes Orlovsky to task for his trust in Jordan LoveStephen A. Smith explains why he’s not ready to trust Jordan Love in big games and calls out Dan Orlovsky for his level of trust in Love.
Stephen A. Smith explains why he’s not ready to trust Jordan Love in big games and calls out Dan Orlovsky for his level of trust in Love.
Why Stefon Diggs is key to Stephen A. not favoring Bills over PatsStephen A. Smith looks at Stefon Diggs’ role in his decision to not take the Bills over the Patriots this weekend.
Stephen A. Smith looks at Stefon Diggs’ role in his decision to not take the Bills over the Patriots this weekend.
If you don’t agree with the favorite to win the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award this season, just wait a week.
I have 15 candidates who require further analysis. In my opinion, there are five Tier 1 candidates — players who have a very conceivable case as the most valuable player in football without needing to dramatically raise their game in the final month of the season. And then there are 10 in Tier 2 just below them — guys who deserve meaningful consideration but would need a serious breakout and a successful end to the season from their team to have a serious shot at landing the award.
I’ll run through those second-tier candidates first. These are in no particular order, but I want to start with the guy I had as the MVP through the first half of the season.
What is the likelihood of the Chiefs making the playoffs?
Rich Eisen outlines what the Kansas City Chiefs have to do to make the postseason.
Those negative plays have mattered. Allen has two turnovers in each of Buffalo’s four losses, including the 23-20 defeat against the Patriots that helped push New England into first place in the AFC East. The Bills have won only one multi-turnover game from Allen this season, the 44-32 victory over the Buccaneers in which Allen scored six touchdowns between the air and ground.
It’s going to take something spectacular for a running back to win MVP, though, and while Gibbs has been that sort of player at his best, he has racked up only three 100-yard games on the ground this season. The Lions consciously manage their star back’s touches to keep him fresh, which caps the sort of cumulative impact Gibbs can have without breaking off a long touchdown run and naturally impacts his MVP case.
The 49ers are 9-4, and with so many of their star players injured for some or most of the season, there’s a natural urge to reward the few household names who have actually made it through the season for them. (I would be inclined to pay respect to the coaching staff, most notably Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh, who have kept the Niners afloat despite all those injuries.)
McCaffrey has been one of those players, and as the focal point of the offense, he has accrued significant counting stats. CMC leads the league with 322 touches and is on pace for a whopping 421 touches, which would be the most for any player in a single season since 2014.
He is also on pace to become the first player in NFL history to rack up two 1,000-1,000 seasons; McCaffrey is projected to finish with 1,110 rushing yards and 1,054 receiving yards. It wouldn’t be far off from his 2023 totals, when a healthy McCaffrey finished with 2,023 yards from scrimmage and 21 touchdowns while winning the league’s Offensive Player of the Year award.
The difference is the denominator. McCaffrey needed only 339 touches to get over 2,000 yards from scrimmage in 2023, a figure he’ll probably hit this weekend with three more games to go. He’s averaging 3.6 yards per carry on the ground. While we’ve seen backs with significant volume and middling yards per carry figures earn MVP consideration, the last time that really happened was with Eddie George in 2000, when there just wasn’t as much attention paid to rate stats or efficiency.
Taylor would be a much more realistic MVP selection than either of the backs I mentioned above. He has been way more efficient as a runner than McCaffrey and been the focal point of a better offense than the one Gibbs plays on in Detroit. Taylor has also scored 18 touchdowns, putting him on pace for a whopping 24 scores. I’m not inclined to overvalue touchdowns if they’re just plunging in from 1 yard out, but Taylor has 23-, 46-, 80- and 83-yard scampers for scores.
I mentioned Gibbs as an option, but Goff could also figure into the discussion if he finishes the season on a hot stretch. Just for fun, let’s compare the numbers for two players as we enter Week 15:
Stephen A.: The Cowboys will win out and still miss playoffs
One of the reasons Nix has needed to lead so many fourth-quarter comebacks, though, is how he played through the first three quarters. Nix is 17th in the NFL in QBR through the first 45 minutes of games. He’s generally a low-risk, low-reward quarterback. Nix takes sacks at the lowest rate in the league — a huge plus. But even including the fourth quarter, he averages only 6.3 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 28th out of 34 qualifying passers this season.
With Nacua missing time because of injuries, Smith-Njigba has separated from the pack as the most productive wide receiver. With four games remaining, Smith-Njigba is averaging a staggering 4.2 yards per route run, which would be the best mark going back through 2007, when ESPN’s route data begins. The only other wideout season that hit 4 yards per route run was Tyreek Hill’s 2023 campaign (4.0). Smith-Njigba is also second to Nacua in ESPN’s receiver scores.
If there’s a reason to discount his production, it might be leaning on where it comes: play-action, when defenses are loading up to stop the run and leaving huge holes behind in coverage. Smith-Njigba is averaging — and this is not a typo — 7 yards per route run off play-action. We’ve seen Andre Johnson, Steve Smith Sr. and Jordy Nelson top that figure in the past, but Smith-Njigba’s Seahawks run play-action more often than their offenses did.
On straight dropbacks, Smith-Njigba is averaging 3.3 yards per route run. That’s still an excellent figure, but it’s comfortably second behind Nacua, whose 4.0 yards per route run on dropback passes is the best for any receiver since 2007, too. The yards count for just as much on play-action as they do without, of course, but it’s fair to suggest that the Seahawks’ style of offense might lend a helping hand to Smith-Njigba’s jaw-dropping efficiency.
Smith-Njigba is having a special season, but there’s a number that any wide receiver is going to need to hit if they want to win MVP. I’m just not sure it’s possible for a wideout to win this award unless they break the league’s receiving record and top 2,000 yards. Smith-Njigba is on pace for 1,867 yards, which means he would need to average 143 receiving yards per game over the final month of the season to get to 2K.
Even that might not be enough for the voters, given that Smith-Njigba has only nine touchdowns, and the non-QB offensive players who have won typically have gaudy touchdown totals. Smith-Njigba finishes just outside the top five for me so far.
There are two issues holding him back. As was the case with Smith-Njigba, Darnold has been an entirely different player on play-action than in straight dropback situations. He is averaging 12.7 yards per attempt with a play-fake this season, unsurprisingly the best mark in football. His 7.6 yards per attempt without a play-fake is fourth in the league, which is still very good but reinforces that Darnold isn’t quite as effective of a dropback passer as he is within the play-action game.
Damien Woody and Rex Ryan question whether Sam Darnold can deliver in big games for the Seahawks.
The average negative play for Darnold by EPA costs the Seahawks minus-0.9 points per snap. That’s the third-worst mark among regular starters. The average sack costs them minus-2.0 EPA. While Maye has taken 40 sacks to Darnold’s 17, the cumulative impact of those sacks isn’t really much different; Maye’s sacks have cost the Patriots 45.2 points of EPA to Darnold’s 32.5 points in Seattle.
I’ve mentioned several non-quarterbacks here and repeatedly referred to the idea that they need to set records if they want to compete for MVP honors. And while it’s possible that Taylor or Smith-Njigba catches on fire over the last month of the season and gets there, nobody is currently on pace to set those respective rushing and receiving records right now.