Mike ReissCloseMike ReissESPN Staff WriterMike Reiss is an NFL reporter at ESPN and covers the New England Patriots. Reiss has covered the Patriots since 1997 and joined ESPN in 2009. In 2019, he was named Massachusetts Sportswriter of the Year by the National Sports Media Association.Follow on XJeff LegwoldCloseJeff LegwoldESPN Senior WriterJeff Legwold covers the Denver Broncos at ESPN. He has covered the Broncos for more than 20 years and also assists with NFL draft coverage, joining ESPN in 2013. He has been a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame Board of Selectors since 1999, too. Jeff previously covered the Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills and Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans at previous stops prior to ESPN.Follow on XDec 13, 2025, 06:00 AM ET
Why Stefon Diggs is key to Stephen A. not favoring Bills over Pats (2:20)Stephen A. Smith looks at Stefon Diggs’ role in his decision to not take the Bills over the Patriots this weekend. (2:20)
In a throwback to 2012-15, the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots are separating from the pack in the race for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Both enter this weekend with 11-2 records and are in the midst of 10-game winning streaks.
Payton remembers the significance of that from his time as the New Orleans Saints’ head coach. He recalled how his team was the No. 2 seed in the playoffs after the 2006 regular season and had to travel to frigid Soldier Field for the NFC Championship Game on Jan. 21, where the Saints lost 39-14 to the Chicago Bears.
Payton got the No. 1 seed twice after, in 2009 and 2018. New Orleans won Super Bowl XLIV over the Indianapolis Colts to conclude the 2009 season and lost to the Los Angeles Rams in overtime of the 2018 NFC Championship Game in controversial fashion.
“We’re just trying to play for the championship that we have available this week,” he said, a reference to how if the Patriots beat the visiting Buffalo Bills on Sunday, they will win the AFC East for the first time since 2019.
If they accomplish that feat, then perhaps their attention will turn more decisively to the possibility of the No. 1 seed. That would fall in line with what Vrabel said when he was hired as the franchise’s 16th head coach in January.
ESPN Patriots reporter Mike Reiss and Broncos reporter Jeff Legwold take a look at each team’s remaining schedule, keys to getting the No. 1 seed, the biggest hurdles and tiebreaker scenarios.
Percentage odds of each team getting the No. 1 seed plus other achievements, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
Tighten up run D: The Patriots held opposing running backs to 50 or fewer yards in each of the first nine games of the season, but some cracks have begun to show. Since Week 10, New England has allowed 4.9 yards per carry, which ranks 29th in the NFL. That has coincided, in part, with defensive tackle Milton Williams going on injured reserve with an ankle injury. Williams isn’t eligible to return until Week 17 against the Jets. — Reiss
Broncos: Their defense is one of the best in the league, so they don’t need to have an elite offense, but they will need more efficiency when they have the ball. They’re 19th in points per drive this season (2.08) and have seen 27.6% of their possessions end in three-and-outs, the third-highest frequency in the NFL. The Broncos are 9-2 in one-score games, which shows their mettle, but they’ll need a little more from their offense against quality playoff opponents. — Legwold
For teams that don’t play in the same division or don’t play head-to-head, the first tiebreaker is conference record, then record against common opponents. Regarding the conference record tiebreaker, the Broncos and Patriots would have the same conference record if their overall records are the same and Denver beats the Packers on Sunday. If the Broncos lose to the Packers and end the season tied with the Patriots, Denver would have a better record against AFC opponents and win that tiebreaker.
If it goes to common opponents, the Broncos and Patriots had five common opponents this season — Raiders, Titans, Jets, Bengals and Giants. The Patriots suffered the only loss by either team in any of those games — to the Raiders in Week 1. Since there are no common opponents remaining on their schedules, the Broncos would win that tiebreaker if the two teams finish with the same record. — Legwold
Patriots: 2017. The Patriots had a 13-3 record and dispatched the Titans in the divisional round (35-14) before narrowly edging the Jaguars in the AFC Championship Game (24-20). That set up a date with the Eagles in Super Bowl LII, with Tom Brady throwing for 505 yards in a heartbreaking 41-33 loss that sparked a question many in New England are still asking: Why did coach Bill Belichick not play cornerback Malcolm Butler on defense? — Reiss
Keep Bo Nix in his current groove: Since a lackluster 10-7 win over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 10, after which Payton called the game plan “awful,” the coach and Nix have found a better rhythm. They’ve found a groove by utilizing “songs they know by heart,” Payton’s term for plays he knows Nix can execute well. In the past three games, Nix has completed 70% of his passes, is 11th in QBR and fifth in completion percentage above expectation. In the first 10 weeks, Nix completed 60.9% of his passes, was 18th in QBR and 28th in CPOE.
Clean up the messes: The most glaring items that could derail the Broncos are special teams play and a propensity for penalties. Denver has seen some progress in both areas, especially on special teams. Marvin Mims Jr. returned a punt for a touchdown this past Sunday, and Wil Lutz has hit several game-winning field goals. But the Broncos are still the third-most penalized team in the league — after spending much of the season at No. 1 or No. 2 — and have the most-penalized defense in the NFL. — Legwold
Drake Maye’s efficiency: Vrabel has highlighted quarterback efficiency as one of the keys to New England’s victories. Maye leads the NFL in completion percentage (71.5%) and completion percentage above expectation (8.2%). He ranks third in QBR (72.2). In addition, the Patriots have had six games with a different leading receiver, which is reflective of Maye’s knack for spreading the wealth. Combined with his accuracy, it’s a potent package. If Maye continues to perform at a high level, the Patriots will be tough to beat.
Patriots: The red zone. The Patriots’ offense is in a dry spell inside the 20-yard line, scoring only one touchdown in their past six trips. Overall, they have totaled 24 touchdowns inside the red zone on 44 trips (not including game-ending kneel-downs or end-of-half field goals). Defensively, they rank last in the NFL in touchdown percentage (73%), with opponents scoring 19 touchdowns in 26 trips. One positive is the infrequency of opposing red zone trips, as the Patriots give up an average of only two red zone possessions per game. — Reiss
Why Stefon Diggs is key to Stephen A. not favoring Bills over Pats (2:20)Stephen A. Smith looks at Stefon Diggs’ role in his decision to not take the Bills over the Patriots this weekend. (2:20)
Stephen A. Smith looks at Stefon Diggs’ role in his decision to not take the Bills over the Patriots this weekend. (2:20)
CloseMike ReissESPN Staff WriterMike Reiss is an NFL reporter at ESPN and covers the New England Patriots. Reiss has covered the Patriots since 1997 and joined ESPN in 2009. In 2019, he was named Massachusetts Sportswriter of the Year by the National Sports Media Association.Follow on X
CloseJeff LegwoldESPN Senior WriterJeff Legwold covers the Denver Broncos at ESPN. He has covered the Broncos for more than 20 years and also assists with NFL draft coverage, joining ESPN in 2013. He has been a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame Board of Selectors since 1999, too. Jeff previously covered the Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills and Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans at previous stops prior to ESPN.Follow on X
Four regular-season games remain to determine who lands the lone, coveted first-round bye.
In New England, head coach Mike Vrabel has highlighted a narrower viewpoint.
Jump to a section: Schedule | Numbers | Three keys Biggest hurdle | Tiebreaker | Last No. 1 seed
Combined record of Broncos’ remaining opponents: 33-18-1
Combined record of Patriots’ remaining opponents: 24-28
Week 15: Sunday vs. Green Bay Packers (9-3-1), 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Week 16: Dec. 21 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4), 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
Week 17: Dec. 25 at Kansas City Chiefs (6-7), 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video
Week 18: Jan. 3 or 4 vs. Los Angeles Chargers (9-4), TBD
Week 15: Dec. 14 vs. Buffalo Bills (9-4), 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Week 16: Dec. 21 at Baltimore Ravens (6-7), 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Week 17: Dec. 28 at New York Jets (3-10), 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Make AFC Championship Game: 39.6% | Make Super Bowl: 9.9%
Make AFC Championship Game: 33.8% | Make Super Bowl: 6.6%