Bradford DoolittleCloseBradford DoolittleESPN Staff WriterMLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com Been with ESPN since 2013David SchoenfieldCloseDavid SchoenfieldESPN Senior WriterCovers MLB for ESPN.com Former deputy editor of Page 2 Been with ESPN.com since 1995Dec 14, 2025, 12:25 PM ET
Reports: Kelly to D-backs on 2-year, $40M deal (0:47)Reports: Kelly to D-backs on 2-year, $40M deal (0:47)
D-backs, Kelly reunite after midseason trade to Texas
Tigers sign Kenley Jansen for reliever’s 17th season
Red Sox make another rotation add in trade with Pirates
Blue Jays sign Korean League MVP Ponce for rotation
Blue Jays make first big pitching splash with Cease signing
Orioles deal former top prospect for Halos power bat
It’s hot stove season! The 2025-26 MLB offseason is officially here, and we have you covered with grades and analysis for every major signing and trade this winter.
Whether it’s a big-money free agent signing that changes the course of your team’s future or a blockbuster trade, we’ll weigh in with what it all means for next season and beyond.
ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield will evaluate each move as it happens, so check back in for the freshest analysis through the start of spring training.
Arizona needed starting pitchers after trading Kelly, and losing Corbin Burnes to injury and Zac Gallen to free agency. The Diamondbacks still need more even after re-adding Kelly and (earlier this week) Michael Soroka, but the depth chart is starting to look more workable and there is plenty of offseason to go.
Kelly is 37 but there has been little decline in his underlying numbers. His 2025 raw ERA (3.52) was excellent, and Statcast pegged his expected ERA at 4.15, consistent with previous years. A six-pitch starter, Kelly has never relied on elite velocity, but it’s worth noting that his velocity and spin readings bounced back after he dealt with shoulder issues in 2024. He seems primed to give Arizona 180 to 190 quality innings over the next couple of years.
The lofty grade handed out here is not just for this signing, but also for the exemplary work by Mike Hazen and his staff at the deadline. With the Diamondbacks’ status as a contender teetering, and Kelly headed for the market, they brought back three pitching prospects from the Rangers in exchange for loaning them Kelly for a couple of months.
Now Kelly is a Snake once more after signing a deal Arizona would surely have given him had he never been dealt. And for their trouble, the Diamondbacks deepened their organizational depth chart. In righty David Hagaman, they added a future rotation contributor who Baseball America recently ranked as Arizona’s No. 5 prospect. Not for nothing: According to B.A., at the time of the deal, Hagaman was viewed as the third-best prospect in it behind Kohl Drake and Mitch Bratt.
In other words, that haul might turn out to be a huge return for Arizona — and they still have Kelly. Not bad. — Doolittle
This is a prototypical off-the-radar move for the Brewers, one that has little downside, a good bit of upside and costs relatively little in the payroll department. Zerpa is a hard-throwing lefty who was developed as a starter during his slow rise through the Royals’ system before transitioning to a mid-leverage bullpen role once he finally stuck in The Show.
Zerpa can dial it up to 99 mph or so when he’s revved up, but doesn’t miss as many bats as elite relievers with that kind of top-end velocity do. He does feature elite vertical movement on his slider and that, combined with the hard sinker he throws to hitters on both sides of the plate, allowed him to produce groundballs at a 99th percentile rate last season, per Statcast.
The Brewers have a tremendous track record of extracting more out of pitchers like Zerpa than they’ve shown before, and they have plenty to work with here. The Milwaukee bullpen is currently heavy on southpaws, and while that doesn’t mean they can’t use another, it also wouldn’t be a shock if Milwaukee ends up experimenting with a back-to-the-rotation project with Zerpa.
When we refer to the Brewers’ success in getting more from other teams’ players, Mears is a classic example. An undrafted journeyman who bounced from the Pirates to the Rockies to the Brewers, Mears had 107 1/3 innings yielding a 5.20 ERA in his career entering last season. Then he emerged as a key member of a Milwaukee bullpen made populous because of so many injuries, posting a 3.49 ERA over 56 2/3 innings an earning his first career save at age 28.
There’s little in his metrics to suggest that level of success will continue, but the Royals’ recent track record with acquired pitchers has been good, so you want to give them the benefit of the doubt. Mears has to work the edges but he has good command and induces a good number of chases. He’s a fairly extreme flyball pitcher and moving to Kauffman Stadium will help him in that regard. Mears doesn’t have Zerpa’s upside but he can help the Royals.
Collins turns 29 next season, as his rise through the minors was slow. But he’s a good athlete who can play both outfield corners while chipping in as a fill-in at the non-shortstop infield positions. There’s probably not much future improvement to be had, given his age, but what he is right now is good enough to upgrade Kansas City’s roster.
The deal: Tigers agree with RHP Kenley Jansen to a one-year, $11 million contract with a club options for 2027 Grade: B-
With A.J. Hinch — one of the better bullpen managers in the game — calling the shots, the Tigers have embraced a philosophy of “bullpen chaos” the last couple of years, which have featured two straight postseason appearances and wild-card round wins. With the addition of Jansen to Detroit’s 2026 bullpen, things promise to be less chaotic.
Whether or not this is a feature or a bug remains to be seen. Last year’s bullpen was more fine than outstanding last season, and that continued into the playoffs when Detroit’s relievers struck out just 5.8 batters per nine innings. Jansen is coming off a season when his own strikeout rate was his lowest ever — 8.7 K/9 — and has been declining with each passing season. That happens to even a future Hall of Famer as he pushes into his late 30s.
Jansen still leans heavily on a cutter that has long been one of the most effective pitches in the game, including last season when opposing hitters managed just a .536 OPS against the offering (righties were at just .481). His cutter didn’t induce as many chases or swinging strikes, but the slider he mixes in seemed to fill those voids, at least in 2025. Jansen saved 29 games with a 2.59 ERA that wasn’t really supported by his peripherals (3.98 FIP), but he was clearly still effective.
The Tigers’ bullpen has been fortified this fall with the re-signing of Kyle Finnegan and now the addition of Jansen to join a returning crew that includes Will Vest and Tyler Holton. Last year’s Tigers led the majors in appearances in which a reliever recorded four or more outs, something Jansen isn’t going to be asked to do very often, if at all. Now Hinch will be able to match up all of those multi-inning relievers to set up one of the best-ever closers.
Indeed, with either Vientos or Polanco projected at least as a small defensive upgrade over Alonso at first base, the Mets can pretend they’ve just replaced Alonso’s overall value while saving $11 million they could use toward signing top free agent Kyle Tucker or a front-line starting pitcher.
In comparison to Alonso’s record of durability, that makes this a risky signing, as Polanco averaged just 101 games from 2022 to 2024. It’s fair to argue that three years of injuries is a better predictor of what might happen in the future than one healthy, career-best season. Polanco’s season also ran hot and cold: He had a 1.226 OPS in April and finished strong with a 1.015 OPS in September, along with some big postseason moments, but hit just .139 in May and .222 in June.
The deal: Blue Jays sign Tyler Rogers to three-year, $37 million deal (with 2029 vesting option) Grade: B+
He threw that sinker nearly 75% of the time in 2025, relentlessly pounding the strike zone (he has walked just 11 batters unintentionally in 148 innings over the past two seasons). Rogers then mixes in what is essentially a rising slider due to his low release point. In other words: He pitches down with his fastball and up with his breaking ball, the exact opposite of how most pitchers are doing it. Hitters’ brains just have trouble adjusting to something they’re not used to seeing.
It works, even though his whiff rate is in the first percentile — basically the lowest in baseball. But his ground ball rate was in the 98th percentile, his hard-hit rate was in the 95th percentile, and he never walks anybody. Unlike many sidearmers of the past, he has no platoon split, with a .627 OPS allowed against left-handed batters since 2021 and .633 against right-handers. Like those sidearmers, he has been extremely durable, averaging 75 appearances over the past five seasons.
To be clear, this very well might happen. The Braves, despite last season’s disappointments, rate as a prime contender, solidly in the tier down from the one-team group composed of the Dodgers. This was even before the additions over the past 18 hours or so of Yastrzemski and Suarez. Thus the Braves’ probabilities keep trending in the right direction.
Also, we noted in our grade on the Yastrzemski signing below that the Braves’ room under the first tax threshold is shrinking. That continues with this move, though the deal is slightly backloaded ($13 million in 2025, $16 million in 2026 and 2027). According to Cot’s Contracts, this drops Atlanta down to within $9 million to $10 million below that line — and the Braves have more moves to make, with a shortstop topping their list.
Passing the threshold wouldn’t be a huge deal for Atlanta, which operated below the threshold last season. Still, it’s something you don’t want to do willy-nilly and since the Braves already had Iglesias on hand, maybe a lower-cost alternative like Brad Keller or Seranthony Dominguez would have made sense.