Scouts, coaches weigh in on three-man race for No. 1 pick of 2026 NBA draft

Jeremy WooCloseJeremy WooESPNNBA draft analyst and writer Joined ESPN.com in 2023 Covered the NBA and NBA draft for Sports Illustrated from 2015-2023Follow on XJeff BorzelloCloseJeff BorzelloBasketball recruiting insiderJeff Borzello is a basketball recruiting insider. He has joined ESPN in 2014.Follow on XDec 16, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

play1:26Darryn Peterson’s best Plays vs. Missouri TigersDarryn Peterson’s best Plays vs. Missouri Tigers

play0:23AJ Dybantsa throws down exclamation point jam for BYUAJ Dybantsa takes the open lane to the basket and throws down a massive jam for BYU.

play0:54Cameron Boozer’s best Plays vs. Florida GatorsCameron Boozer’s best Plays vs. Florida Gators

play1:25Mikel Brown Jr.’s best Plays vs. Arkansas RazorbacksMikel Brown Jr.’s best Plays vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

Darryn Peterson throws it down for Kansas (0:19)Darryn Peterson elevates to throw down a two-handed jam for Kansas vs. NC State. (0:19)

AJ Dybantsa throws down exclamation point jam for BYUAJ Dybantsa takes the open lane to the basket and throws down a massive jam for BYU.

Mikel Brown Jr.’s best Plays vs. Arkansas RazorbacksMikel Brown Jr.’s best Plays vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

At the start of the men’s college basketball season, the soft consensus among NBA front office personnel was that Darryn Peterson had the edge on AJ Dybantsa and Cameron Boozer for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NBA draft.

Dybantsa was considered a hair ahead of Boozer based on perceived long-term upside, while Boozer offered a higher floor. Peterson offered the best combination of both. But each of these freshmen are considered legitimate No. 1 prospects; they just happen to be in the same class.

With the top of the 2026 draft class strong enough to add depth to the lottery, they also asked which prospects could round out the top five.

The No. 2 prospect in the SC Next 100 coming out of high school, Peterson entered the season as the favorite to be the top pick of this class. At 6-foot-6 with the ability to be a team’s primary playmaker and scorer, Peterson’s projected high-usage role at Kansas was also expected to help him put up huge numbers as a freshman.

Peterson had 26 points on 9-for-15 shooting (nearly all of it in one half) in the Jayhawks’ exhibition game at Louisville, cementing himself as the front-runner for the No. 1 pick early on. He backed that up with 21 points in the regular-season opener against Green Bay and 22 points against North Carolina.

“He has the most complete offensive game of anybody in college,” said one college coach who scouted Kansas. “When you combine the variety of shotmaking, the deep 3-point shooting potential, his ability to play ball in hand, I think he’s a guy that’s reminiscent of some of the great young players in recent memory, the last 15-20 years.”

The high-level performance against the Tar Heels was the last we would see of Peterson for a full month, though, as a lingering hamstring injury sidelined him for seven games. There was plenty of mystery surrounding his injury, as he was consistently a game-day decision before being ruled out hours before tipoff.

He returned against Missouri on Dec. 7, posting 17 points in just 23 minutes. And while he left Saturday’s overtime win against NC State early with quad cramping, he still finished with 17 points.

“I thought he was pretty impressive [against Missouri],” an Eastern Conference scout told ESPN. “I think he tried hard to fit in and not be disruptive. Maybe [he] should have been even more assertive.

“To me he’s No. 1 and I don’t know what scenario [the others] can get to that would have me bump [him down]. He’s so cold and collected and poised and consistent. Even Darryn’s tough nights to me are incredibly productive.”

Darryn Peterson’s best Plays vs. Missouri TigersDarryn Peterson’s best Plays vs. Missouri Tigers

While not unanimously considered a true point guard yet, Peterson has continued to improve his distribution and ability to run an offense. The likelihood he’ll be able to shoulder high usage at the NBA level gives him the advantage over Dybantsa and Boozer in the eyes of many insiders.

“What a point guard is now in the NBA, he’s that,” another Eastern Conference scout said. “Are you able to create advantages, are you able to [be a] playmaker, are you a scorer when you see a defense break down? Darryn can do all those things.”

Whether Peterson can make the full-time transition to the point as opposed to needing another ball handler or shot creator on the floor alongside him is one of the few questions.

“I don’t look at him as a complete point guard yet,” said a college coach who scouted Kansas. “To me, he doesn’t have that true ball-on-a-string deft handle and passing like some of the elite, elite guards in the NBA. So I think that’s going to be something that he needs to continue to grow.

“He’ll have to continue to show evolution as a play creator, get more and more comfortable as a passer, as somebody that can comfortably play on both sides of the floor. I think for him, when he’s met with more aggressive coverages, when teams put pressure on his ballhandling, how does that sort of change things for him?”

As for the hamstring injury that kept Peterson out of action for a month, multiple NBA scouts acknowledged it would come up during the draft process. But as of now, it is unlikely to be much of a factor when it comes to taking him with the No. 1 pick.

“That was never going to stop anyone from drafting him,” one scout said. “You just have to talk to your doctors and if your doctors think you can manage it. Everyone’s got their medical teams. As long as it’s not like a damning injury, he’s still going top two.”

Dybantsa was in the discussion for best prospect in high school basketball early in his career, playing up multiple age groups on the Nike circuit, ultimately reclassifying from the 2026 class to the 2025 class back in 2023. The Brockton, Massachusetts, product finished his senior year as the No. 1 prospect in the SC Next 100.

Through the first nine games of BYU’s season, Dybantsa is averaging 20.9 points, 6.7 rebounds and 3.4 assists while shooting 55.5% from the field and 34.8% from 3. He hasn’t consistently posted the eye-opening stat lines of Boozer, but Dybantsa’s second-half performances against UConn and Clemson were among the best this season.

“He’s got a very advanced offensive scoring package, reminiscent of what an NBA wing player looks like playing in college,” said one college coach who faced Dybantsa this season. “In high school and FIBA settings he was a little bit of a ball stopper. He’s been allowing the offense to function around him and then picking his spots when he gets really aggressive.

“It’s his ability to make tough shots, it’s his size at that position, which is a valued position in the NBA. Those bigger wings that have the ability to make plays, ball in hand, put pressure on the rim, make tough shots. He’s toolsy enough to become a good defender. He plays hard.”

Dybantsa’s incredible physical tools at both ends of the floor, size (6-9) and ability to score at all three levels makes him a tantalizing option at the top of the draft.

“I would have AJ No. 1 still,” one Western Conference scout told ESPN. “The positional versatility, the size, is so unique. His ability to be able to create off the dribble, be dynamic from the midpost. The fadeaway jumpers, that style of play. I think he can make really crisp passes off one hand, really good adjusting midair. … He takes long strides on defense, someone that you can insert in very different lineups playing different positions.”

Dybantsa had the best game of his college career at the Jimmy V Classic against Clemson on Dec. 9, going for 22 of his 28 points, 7 of his 9 rebounds and 5 of his 6 assists in the second half to spark a comeback win from 22 points down. It reminded NBA decision makers, many of whom were in attendance at Madison Square Garden, of Dybantsa’s true potential.

“Can he play at that level for an entire game so they don’t need these second-half comebacks? It was the perfect encapsulation of AJ,” one Eastern Conference scout told ESPN after the game. “If he’s consistent, he’s the best player.

“All these guys can be franchise-changers, but AJ has always had the highest ceiling as far as a scorer, a playmaker, a defender. He’s had the ability to impact the game just because he’s bigger. Darryn can do a lot of those things, too, but AJ is a 6-foot-9, three-level scorer. He’s a scorer, not a shooter. The shot is always going to be streaky. The highs you’ve seen from AJ are just so high.”

AJ Dybantsa throws down exclamation point jam for BYU

AJ Dybantsa takes the open lane to the basket and throws down a massive jam for BYU.

“It’s easier for me to see how he fails relative to the other two,” another Eastern Conference scout said. “I think the other guys can play in the NBA right now and be moderately productive. AJ can be more of an acquired taste at times.”

Boozer entered college as one of the most decorated amateur basketball prospects in recent history, winning four state championships at the high school level, two gold medals with USA Basketball — earning MVP honors at both events — and three Peach Jam titles on the summer circuit. The son of former NBA veteran Carlos Boozer, he has been wildly productive at every stop.

That’s carried over to the college game, as Boozer is the clear-cut National Player of the Year favorite through the first month of the season. The 6-foot-9 forward is averaging 23.0 points, 9.9 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.7 steals plus blocks through the first 10 games, shooting 56% from the field and 37% from 3.

“[It] feels like people are crushing Cam because he can’t catch a lob, but he can do so many things,” one Eastern Conference scout told ESPN. “Incredibly polished, incredibly smart, I don’t see where there’s not a use for him. … I think some of the weight is gonna shed — maybe he has room for his athleticism to grow. Laterally you can switch him a bit, he’s above average.

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