New England Patriots +2.5 (-105) at Baltimore Ravens
San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts UNDER 46.5
Week 16 gets underway with a huge matchup between NFC West rivals, as the Seattle Seahawks host the Los Angeles Rams on “Thursday Night Football.”
And we get another pair of rivalry games Saturday, with the Philadelphia Eagles visiting the Washington Commanders and the Chicago Bears hosting the Green Bay Packers.
Sunday’s slate features a big NFC South matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers in the early window of games. In the late window, the Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Denver Broncos and the Detroit Lions host the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The New England Patriots hit the road to take on the Baltimore Ravens to close out Sunday’s action, and the San Francisco 49ers face off against the Indianapolis Colts on “Monday Night Football.”
Matt Bowen, Pamela Maldonado, Ben Solak and Seth Walder looked at the early Week 16 odds and identified which ones are worth jumping on now before potential shifts later in the week.
Maldonado: Both teams want the same game script: Run the ball, shorten the game, avoid mistakes. Indy bleeds clock through Jonathan Taylor because of limited passing upside, especially if the offense stays conservative. The 49ers score efficiently but not quickly, comfortably grinding out drives. Sustained possessions, fewer chunk plays and red zone field goals point to pace killing this total.
Walder: We’re buying the dip here following the Patriots’ loss to Buffalo, but the case for Maye remains strong. He ranks third in QBR, first in EPA per dropback and, in comparison to the other contenders, he receives less support from teammates. The Patriots rank 21st in pass block win rate, 25th in EPA per designed carry, and his top receiver is Stefon Diggs (who has been quiet for three straight weeks), without much strength behind him. Plus, New England relies on Maye a ton: The team ranks third in pass rate over expectation, higher than all the other MVP contenders’ teams. Yes, the No. 1 seed is a long shot at this point, but the Patriots currently have a 53% chance to finish in one of the top two seeds. While I’m at it, I might be tempted to sprinkle a little on Jordan Love at 75-1, too.
Denver Broncos -2.5 (-120) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Last week: Patriots ML vs. Bills (Bills won, 35-31), Packers -2.5 at Broncos (Broncos won, 34-26)
Last week: Cowboys -6 vs. Vikings (Vikings won, 34-26)