Bill ConnellyDec 18, 2025, 07:00 AM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Follow on X
play1:05Pick-six! Zabien Brown takes it 99 yards to the house for AlabamaZabien Brown intercepts Joey Aguilar in the red zone and returns it 99 yards for an Alabama touchdown.
play0:42John Mateer connects with Isaiah Sategna III to give Oklahoma the leadJohn Mateer finds a wide open Isaiah Sategna III for a 58-yard touchdown to put the Sooners on top.
play0:59Jake Retzlaff throws 63-yard touchdown pass vs. East CarolinaJake Retzlaff connects for 63-yard TD pass
Louis Riddick: Miami-Texas A&M is the best matchup of the weekend (1:04)Louis Riddick and Jordan Rodgers preview Miami’s College Football Playoff matchup vs. Texas A&M. (1:04)
Pick-six! Zabien Brown takes it 99 yards to the house for AlabamaZabien Brown intercepts Joey Aguilar in the red zone and returns it 99 yards for an Alabama touchdown.
Zabien Brown intercepts Joey Aguilar in the red zone and returns it 99 yards for an Alabama touchdown.
John Mateer connects with Isaiah Sategna III to give Oklahoma the leadJohn Mateer finds a wide open Isaiah Sategna III for a 58-yard touchdown to put the Sooners on top.
Jake Retzlaff throws 63-yard touchdown pass vs. East CarolinaJake Retzlaff connects for 63-yard TD pass
play0:40Wayne Knight scores 58-yard rushing touchdownWayne Knight scores 58-yard rushing touchdown
South Bend, State College, Austin and Columbus set the bar high last season. Now it’s time to shine the spotlight on Norman, College Station, Oxford and Eugene.
We head into the CFP with two clear favorites, a spicy No. 3 and a few others with a puncher’s chance at the title. Here are the projections, per SP+:
(Note: These title odds are slightly different than what I posted after the CFP draw because of some slight changes I made to the win probability model.)
1. Week 9 vs. South Carolina: Tim Keenan III’s recovery of a LaNorris Sellers fumble forced by Deontae Lawson (1:51 left in Q4). Win probability added: 34.3%.
After a clutch run of four straight wins over ranked teams, Bama almost immediately stumbled. The Tide trailed South Carolina by eight late before Ty Simpson tied the game with a touchdown pass and 2-point conversion. South Carolina had time to drive for the winning score, but Keenan’s fumble recovery set up a game-winning touchdown from Germie Bernard instead.
2. Week 8 vs. Tennessee: Zabien Brown’s 99-yard pick-six off of Joey Aguilar (0:09 left in Q2). Win probability added: 19.6%.
In its run against ranked opponents, Bama beat only Tennessee by a comfortable margin (37-20). That margin was almost entirely provided by the two-touchdown swing that occurred when Brown stepped in front of a goal line pass and took it the length of the field.
Pick-six! Zabien Brown takes it 99 yards to the house for Alabama
3. Week 14 vs. Auburn: Bray Hubbard’s interception (and 34-yard return) of Ashton Daniels (1:02 left in Q3). Win probability added: 18.3%.
Bama again struggled with a sub-.500 underdog in the Iron Bowl. Before Simpson’s fourth-down TD to Isaiah Horton could give the Tide a late lead, they needed this red zone pick, late in the third quarter, to buy some time.
1. Week 14 vs. LSU: John Mateer’s 58-yard touchdown pass to Isaiah Sategna III (4:26 left in Q4). Win probability added: 27.4%.
John Mateer connects with Isaiah Sategna III to give Oklahoma the lead
John Mateer finds a wide open Isaiah Sategna III for a 58-yard touchdown to put the Sooners on top.
Oklahoma got here by combining dynamite defense with random offensive bursts. Among CFP receivers, Isaiah Sategna III is third in receiving yards, but he might be the CFP’s most important receiver. And while Deion Burks is mostly a possession option, his longest catch of the season, a 45-yard burst from a tunnel screen, was crucial, too.
(*Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth.)
Of course, while the Sooners’ win in T-Town wasn’t done in a sustainable fashion, Bama has primarily looked worse since.
After a season-opening dud against Florida State, Alabama ripped off eight straight wins thanks in large part to brilliance from quarterback Ty Simpson. But the Tide’s run game never really came around, and it’s hard to carry an offense for an entire season. Simpson’s numbers cratered late.
Only Texas and Ole Miss found any real passing success against the Sooners, and they did it in opposite ways. Texas’ Arch Manning went 21-for-27 but averaged only 7.9 yards per completion. Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss, meanwhile, went just 24-for-44 but completed five passes of at least 25 yards. The Rebels were the only team to top 30 points on the Sooners.
This would be a fantastic time for Ryan Williams to finally find his way. The preseason All-American suffered a catastrophic drop rate of 13.4% (national average: 5.0%) during an almost seasonlong sophomore slump. He caught just nine of 18 balls with three drops in his past five games. Senior Germie Bernard is good, but Bama desperately needs big plays, and Williams is — or was — the most likely producer of those.
Oklahoma has reached the CFP despite an offense that ranks 95th in yards per play and 89th in points per drive. The Sooners’ averages suffered a downturn after quarterback John Mateer’s midseason hand injury, but they weren’t spectacular before that either.
This isn’t a good offense, but it’s a timely one. Dam-bursting passes to Sategna and Burks were vital, as was outstanding red zone execution: The Sooners rank 16th in red zone TD rate (72%), and Groza-award-winning kicker Tate Sandell all but guarantees points from any scoring chance.
Bama probably should have won the first matchup, but the Tide failed to even slightly look the part down the stretch, and no playoff team knows itself — and what it needs to do to win — better than Oklahoma.
Brilliance and droughts, explosions and implosions. Maybe the two most volatile teams in the CFP will face off in Saturday’s early game and in what sure looks like the most interesting first-round game on paper. Tell me right now that either team wins by 24 points, or that the game goes to 16 overtimes, and I’ll believe you.
Miami’s entire playoff case was built around beating Notre Dame, and the Hurricanes needed a number of key plays to get the job done. After the Irish tied the game with 3:21 remaining, Davis knocked in the go-ahead points. Back-to-back sacks by Akheem Mesidor and Bain sealed the deal and, 14 weeks later, earned Miami its first CFP berth.
It’s probably telling that the third-biggest WPA play of the season was a penalty on an opponent who went on to score and beat the Canes. Close games haven’t been the Hurricanes’ thing. Their two one-score victories involved a blown 14-point lead against Notre Dame and a nearly blown 25-point lead against Notre Dame, and playing things safe late against both Louisville and SMU resulted in eventual losses.
1. Week 3 vs. Notre Dame: Marcel Reed’s 11-yard touchdown pass to Nate Boerkircher on fourth-and-11 (0:19 left in Q4), plus Randy Bond’s PAT. Win probability added: 88.4%.
2. Week 3 vs. Notre Dame: Defensive holding on Notre Dame on third-and-16 (0:46 left in Q4). Win probability added: 21.0%.
If Bama-Oklahoma was the least likely outcome of the CFP race, the single biggest play came in South Bend at the end of maybe the best game of the season. A&M erased deficits to either tie or take the lead on four occasions. After Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love scored the go-ahead TD with 2:53 left, a botched hold on a PAT left the door cracked, and after Reed and Boerkircher connected on fourth-and-long, Bond’s PAT won the game.
3. Week 12 vs. South Carolina: Tyler Onyedim and Dalton Brooks’s sack of LaNorris Sellers for an 11-yard loss (2:00 left in Q4). Win probability added: 20.1%.
Somehow Notre Dame wasn’t even A&M’s wildest win of the year. The Aggies spotted South Carolina a 30-3 halftime lead thanks in part to a 3-for-15 funk from Reed — one that also featured three Reed turnovers and two missed field goals. Their win probability at halftime was 3%, but they calmly scored four second-half touchdowns in 20 minutes and finished off a stunningly easy comeback with a fourth-down stop.
These two defenses are fantastic at forcing opponents behind schedule and pouncing on mistakes. These two offenses, meanwhile, make a few too many mistakes at times.
There’s a trade-off for this aggression: Opponents can make some awfully big plays against them at times.
I probably shouldn’t overstate these offenses’ deficiencies. Miami’s offense ranks 10th in success rate and 20th in red zone TD rate; freshman Malachi Toney has emerged as a fantastic source of efficiency: He has a 78% catch rate, he hasn’t been credited with a single drop, and he has forced 31 missed tackles, most of any CFP receiver.
What’s one time-tested way to fend off good pass rushes and avoid interceptions? Run the damn ball. Both A&M and Miami have been willing to do that in 2025. Miami’s Mark Fletcher Jr. and CharMar Brown average 20 carries per game with an excellent 54.4% success rate, while a number of A&M backs led by Rueben Owens II and, if healthy, Le’Veon Moss, have produced similar volume and efficiency numbers. (Moss has missed the past six games, and his availability appears questionable.)
The run defenses appear better than the run offenses, however. A&M is 10th in rushing success rate allowed, and while the Aggies can get hit by the big run gash, Miami doesn’t make many of those. And while A&M’s run game is 39th in yards per carry (not including sacks), Miami’s run defense is 16th. If one offense finds more advantages on the ground than the other, that advantage could make a huge difference.
We’ve seen six rematches this season; in five instances, the loser of the first game won the second.
There were some big swings there, though granted, there weren’t any 35-point swings. That’s the margin by which Ole Miss beat Tulane in Week 4.