David SchoenfieldDec 17, 2025, 07:00 AM ETCloseCovers MLB for ESPN.com Former deputy editor of Page 2 Been with ESPN.com since 1995
We’ve started to see some top free agents come off the board as the MLB offseason has gotten rolling: Kyle Schwarber back to the Philadelphia Phillies, Pete Alonso to the Baltimore Orioles and Dylan Cease to the Toronto Blue Jays. The closer market also moved quickly: Devin Williams to the New York Mets, Edwin Diaz then ditching the Mets for the Los Angeles Dodgers, Robert Suarez to the Atlanta Braves and Ryan Helsley to Baltimore.
That still leaves seven of the top 10 free agents from Kiley McDaniel’s top-50 ranking unsigned. Let’s look at that group and see where things stand. The team at the center of everything right now is the Mets: They have needs to fill and money to spend and will be a key player in how the rest of this offseason plays out.
We’ll list Kiley’s contract projections for each player — including updated projections for the four remaining big free agent hitters, based on how the deals for Schwarber and Alonso have reset that market. Then, of course, we’ll make some predictions that will certainly be correct.
Initial projection: 11 years, $418 million New projection: 11 years, $418 million (with potential deferrals)
Team that might be out: Phillies. The Phillies crossed off their top agenda item, re-signing Schwarber, and then filled a hole in the outfield with a one-year deal for Adolis Garcia. At the Garcia news conference, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said the Phillies’ outfield is “pretty well set,” with Brandon Marsh in left field (at least against right-handed pitching) and rookie Justin Crawford getting the chance to win the job in center field.
Does the reluctance to give Diaz and Alonso long-term contracts preclude signing the younger Tucker? Not necessarily, but it’s clear president of baseball operations David Stearns is operating with a disciplined mission this offseason, focusing on upgrading the team’s defense and not getting trapped into longer deals that can quickly go awry. Plus, with Soto entering the second year of a 15-year contract, does it make sense to give another long-term deal to an outfielder? Probably not.
Team that might be out: Blue Jays. With Bieber exercising his player option and then the Jays signing Cease and Ponce, the rotation looks settled for 2026.
Team that might be out: Cincinnati Reds. Not that the Reds were ever in on Bellinger, but they were in on Schwarber. Even though Bellinger fits a need in the outfield, the Reds’ interest in Schwarber was apparently only due to ownership’s belief the Ohio native would help sell tickets.
Would the Mets give Bellinger a bigger contract than the one Alonso received from the Orioles? Bellinger is only a year younger, but over the past three seasons he has averaged 4.0 WAR while Alonso averaged 3.1
Team that might be out: Detroit Tigers. Bregman and the Tigers felt like the perfect match last offseason when Bregman was a free agent, but Buster Olney recently reported on an episode of the Baseball Tonight podcast that negotiations turned a “little bit nasty” last year, making it less likely for a match this time around.
Prediction: Boston Red Sox. In the end, a return to Boston still makes the most sense. The Red Sox went after Schwarber and Alonso, and they need Bregman’s right-handed bat to help balance out the lefty-heavy lineup.
Team that might be out: Dodgers. After initially declaring he wants to take the Dodgers down, Imai has doubled down on his desire to beat the Dodgers — not join them. “With the number of pitchers they already have, they don’t need me,” he told a Japanese news outlet. Meanwhile, Tyler Glasnow told MLB Network Radio on Sunday that he spoke with Andrew Friedman, and the Dodgers’ exec told him, “You’re not going anywhere.” Seems like the Dodgers will stick with their rotation.
Team that might be out: Braves. With the one-year deal given to Ha-Seong Kim for $20 million to return to Atlanta, where he played 24 games at the end of the season, the Braves would seemingly be out on Bichette. They have Kim at shortstop, Ozzie Albies at second and Mauricio Dubon in a utility role.
Prediction: Yankees. We’re trying to read the tea leaves here, and those Jazz Chisholm Jr. trade rumors keep popping up. Perhaps the Yankees are trying to clear space for a new infielder? Bichette could either provide another option at shortstop to Anthony Volpe, who struggled at the plate in 2025 and saw his defense regress as well, or play second, with Jose Caballero still around to back up both positions.
Team that might be out: Mets. Murakami and the Mets were linked early on, but given Stearns’ defensive emphasis and the signing of Polanco to play first base — where many scouts believe Murakami is best suited to play — there doesn’t seem to be a clear fit, unless the Mets turn him into a full-time DH (and Mark Vientos is still around for that role or could share it with Polanco).
Prediction: Blue Jays. The Jays are doubling down on their World Series appearance so far, signing starters Cease and Cody Ponce, who’s coming off Korean League MVP honors, as well as reliever Tyler Rogers. With George Springer in the final year of his deal, Tucker can be viewed as Springer’s replacement in the outfield (with Anthony Santander as the DH). The Jays also have a lot of other money coming off the books after 2026 (Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Myles Straw and Yimi Garcia). Including Springer, that’s $78 million, so they can absorb the long-term implications of a Tucker deal.
Prediction: Mets. Stearns is clearly emphasizing defense — bringing in Marcus Semien to play second base and ditching Alonso. Bellinger fits in that regard, especially in left field, where he would be a plus defender, and he can handle center as well. The Dodgers could be in the mix here as well, but that outfield hole for the Mets is glaring. If they aren’t going to sign Tucker and if they’re not willing to give a long-term deal to a pitcher, Bellinger is the best fit for them at the top of the market.
Prediction: Chicago White Sox. Murakami’s deadline to sign is Dec. 22, so we’re running out of time. His market still seems wide open. The Phillies could also be an interesting fit, or maybe the Los Angeles Angels want to do something. Indeed, if any of these top 10 free agents land in a surprising spot, Murakami might be the one. The White Sox have money to spend — their current estimated payroll is just $68 million and that includes $20 million for Luis Robert Jr., who might be traded. They have a desperate need for power and Murakami fits at either third or first, depending on where Miguel Vargas ends up. This would be a nice roll of the dice for a White Sox team that looks to be on the rise.
Initial projection: 6 years, $165 million New projection: 6 years, $180 million
Initial projection: 5 years, $160 million New projection: 5 or 6 years, $170 million
Initial projection: 5 years, $130 million New projection: 5 years, $150 million
CloseCovers MLB for ESPN.com Former deputy editor of Page 2 Been with ESPN.com since 1995
Bichette’s 3-run homer sends Ohtani out of the game (1:08)Bo Bichette’s 442-foot home run gives the Blue Jays a 3-0 lead and sees starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani taken out of the game. (1:08)