Mike ClayDec 18, 2025, 09:56 AM ETCloseMike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on “Fantasy Football Now” and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.Follow on X
Should fantasy managers lock Jacoby Brissett into their lineups? (1:03)Mike Clay breaks down whether fantasy managers should start Jacoby Brissett in Week 16. (1:03)
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance each week.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
LAR-SEA | PHI-WAS | GB-CHI | BUF-CLE | LAC-DAL | KC-TEN | CIN-MIA | NYJ-NO MIN-NYG | TB-CAR | JAX-DEN| ATL-ARI| PIT-DET | LV-HOU| NE-BAL | SF-IND
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Terry McLaurin, Dallas Goedert
McLaurin is the better WR3 play this week, though both receivers will have their hands full against an Eagles defense that has allowed the second-lowest catch rate (54%) and only six TDs to WRs this season.
Although Swift holds a slight edge over Monangai in passing situations, he hasn’t been too involved in that area as of late, totaling just eight targets during the four-game span. Swift took advantage of a leaky Browns’ run defense last week, but this will be a tougher assignment against a Green Bay defense that held Swift to 11.2 fantasy points and Monangai to 8.7 points in Week 14. Swift is best valued as a fringe RB2 and Monangai as a TD-dependent flex flier.
Fantasy scoop: Fannin has posted new career-high marks in targets both of the past two weeks. After putting up an impressive 8-114-1 receiving line on 11 targets against the Titans in Week 14, Fannin followed with a 7-48-0 line on 14 targets against the Bears on Sunday. Fannin has now handled a target share of at least 20% in each of Cleveland’s last nine games, but the team’s offensive struggles have led to inconsistent fantasy output.
Fannin has delivered five top-12 fantasy outings, but also four games with single-digit fantasy points during the nine-game stretch. The rookie sits no lower than sixth at the position in targets, catches and yards, so he should be in lineups, even in a tough matchup against a Buffalo defense that has allowed the fewest catches and fantasy points to tight ends this season.
No longer much of a threat with his legs, Minshew is no more than a back-end QB2 and should be on rosters only in superflex formats. Kansas City’s skill position players figure to suffer from the change, with only heavily targeted No. 1 WR Rice a lineup lock, assuming that he clears the league’s concussion protocol in time to play. Xavier Worthy (more on him in a second) and Travis Kelce (back-end TE1) are worth considering.
Fantasy scoop: Joe Burrow posted a massive dud Sunday, failing to score a single touchdown and throwing a pair of interceptions against the Ravens. Burrow’s 5.5 fantasy points are his fewest in a game since Week 4 of the 2023 season and he now has as many duds (under 9.0 points) as he does big games (19-plus points) in his four full outings this season. Burrow has been a complete nonfactor with his legs this season (7-16-0 rushing line), which makes his passing output extremely important.
The good news is that we’ve seen some of that passing in recent weeks (including 284 yards and four TDs against the Bills in Week 14), but he’s obviously a riskier fantasy option than usual. Burrow is best viewed as a fringe starting option against a Miami defense that has allowed the highest completion rate (71%) and 10th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
The rookie has a terrific Week 16 matchup against a Jets defense that sits top 10 in passing TDs (25) and QB fantasy points allowed despite having faced the fifth-fewest passing attempts. The Jets have inexplicably yet to intercept a single pass and allowed 44.3 points to Trevor Lawrence on Sunday, leading to the dismissal of defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. Shough is risky, but he remains part of a long list of streaming options.
Shadow Report: Giants receivers should be downgraded against a Vikings defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to the position this season. After holding Dallas relatively in check on Sunday, Minnesota has surrendered the third-fewest catches and sixth-fewest TDs (eight) to the position. Only nine receivers have reached double-digit fantasy points against Minnesota this season. Robinson’s hefty usage keeps him in the WR2 mix, but other Giants receivers should be avoided.
Fantasy scoop: Mike Evans returned to action on Thursday for the first time since Week 4. Though he was limited to 31 snaps (51%), Evans was busy, turning a team-high 12 targets into 132 yards on six catches against Atlanta. The big game was a bit surprising when you consider that he failed to clear 56 yards or 13.3 fantasy points in any of his first three full games of the season (when he was a full go).
Evans’ strong showing is enough to place him back on the WR3 radar but, just like Chris Godwin Jr. (10-plus fantasy points in three straight, including last week’s season-high 14.0) and Emeka Egbuka (held under 10.5 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games), he’s not quite a lineup lock. The Panthers have been solid against receivers this season, having allowed only 10 touchdowns and the 11th-fewest fantasy points to the position.
Lawrence’s hot streak is in jeopardy this week as he heads to Denver to take on a defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest passing TDs (14) and seventh-fewest QB fantasy points this season. The Broncos have allowed only three weekly QB finishes better than 12th this season and just one of those has come during their past seven games. Lawrence is a risky Week 16 streaming option.
Shadow Report: Pat Surtain II is a candidate to shadow Brian Thomas Jr. this week. Denver’s top corner has shadowed in seven games, with those receivers averaging 9.4 fantasy points per game and none clearing 15.3. It’s possible Denver chooses not to shadow, as Meyers has been very productive in recent weeks, but Thomas’ perimeter role makes him more vulnerable.
Regardless, this is a tough matchup for the Jacksonville passing game, as Denver has allowed a league-low five TDs and the ninth-fewest fantasy points to the position despite facing the seventh-most WR targets. Only three receivers have reached 16 fantasy points against them and none has reached 23. Expectations for Jacksonville’s receivers should be lowered, especially for Thomas.
Lineup locks: Jacoby Brissett, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Trey McBride, Kyle Pitts Sr.
The veteran back’s upside is limited by Jaylen Warren’s presence and he does have a tough Week 16 matchup against a Detroit defense that has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards and fantasy points to backs. So, just like Warren, Gainwell is best viewed as a fringe RB2.
Shadow Report: Las Vegas receivers should be downgraded against a Houston defense that has surrendered the fourth-fewest catches, third-fewest fantasy points and only eight touchdowns to the position. The Texans have allowed the lowest catch rate (53%) to wide receivers and only two have reached 18 points against them (Nacua, Smith-Njigba). Raiders receivers shouldn’t be near your lineup.
Fantasy scoop: Not only is Lamar Jackson not a Week 16 lineup lock, he may be worth benching all together. The Baltimore offense has scored exactly two touchdowns in six consecutive games and that has been reflected in Jackson’s fantasy output, as he has averaged 11.8 points per game during this stretch. Since opening the season with three straight top-5 fantasy outings, Jackson hasn’t posted a single finish better than ninth and has finished 20th or lower five times.
Josh Allen put up 24.5 fantasy points against New England while primarily in comeback mode last week, but that’s the most the Patriots have allowed to a quarterback this season — and only two others have reached 20. Jackson has plummeted to QB2 territory.
Fantasy scoop: Philip Rivers’ return to action saw the veteran quarterback complete 18 of 27 passes for 120 yards, one TD and one INT. The game was his first in several years and it came against an elite Seattle defense. Still, the 44-year-old’s production, which included minus-5 yards on one carry, reinforced the fact that he’s unlikely to find his way onto the fantasy radar.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
Fantasy scoop: Matthew Stafford sits third among quarterbacks in fantasy points this season, but he has been a bit boom/bust (seven finishes outside the top 10, including in three of his past five) and he has an extremely tough Week 16 matchup. Despite facing the sixth-most passing attempts, the Seahawks have allowed the fifth-fewest QB fantasy points. Seattle sits fourth in both interceptions and sacks. Only two QBs have reached 20 fantasy points against Seattle and Stafford was not one of them, totaling only 130 passing yards and 13.2 points when these teams met in Week 11. Stafford leads the NFL with 37 passing TDs, but he has minus-8 rushing yards and, especially with Davante Adams sidelined, is best left on benches this week.