Bill ConnellyDec 20, 2025, 11:48 PM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Follow on X
play1:02Dante Moore lets it fly to Malik Benson for a TDDante Moore finds Malik Benson to extend Oregon’s lead vs. JMU.
play0:41Miami’s INT in end zone seals CFP First Round victoryMarcel Reed makes an inaccurate throw and Bryce Fitzgerald picks it off in the end zone to seal Miami’s win over Texas A&M.
play0:58Zabien Brown stuns OU with game-tying pick-six before halftimeZabien Brown takes a big-time interception 50 yards to the house to tie the score before halftime.
play1:25Tate Sandell’s back-to-back FG misses help Alabama secure 1st-round winTate Sandell misses a pair of late field goals as Alabama holds on to beat Oklahoma 34-24 in the CFP first round.
Malachi Toney scores the 1st TD of the game late in 4th quarter (0:42)Malachi Toney takes a pop pass into the end zone to give Miami a 10-3 lead with 1:44 left in the game. (0:42)
Dante Moore lets it fly to Malik Benson for a TDDante Moore finds Malik Benson to extend Oregon’s lead vs. JMU.
Miami’s INT in end zone seals CFP First Round victoryMarcel Reed makes an inaccurate throw and Bryce Fitzgerald picks it off in the end zone to seal Miami’s win over Texas A&M.
Marcel Reed makes an inaccurate throw and Bryce Fitzgerald picks it off in the end zone to seal Miami’s win over Texas A&M.
Zabien Brown stuns OU with game-tying pick-six before halftimeZabien Brown takes a big-time interception 50 yards to the house to tie the score before halftime.
Tate Sandell’s back-to-back FG misses help Alabama secure 1st-round winTate Sandell misses a pair of late field goals as Alabama holds on to beat Oklahoma 34-24 in the CFP first round.
Tate Sandell misses a pair of late field goals as Alabama holds on to beat Oklahoma 34-24 in the CFP first round.
That wasn’t the case in the final two games. Ole Miss overwhelmed Tulane in their first game without coach Lane Kiffin. Rebels QB Trinidad Chambliss accounted for more than 300 total yards and three touchdowns in the 41-10 victory. Oregon jumped out to a huge first-half lead against James Madison and cruised to an easy 51-34 win.
Over the past three seasons, Oregon has gone a combined 37-4, with losses only to a national champion (2024 Ohio State), a national finalist (2023 Washington, twice) and the current unbeaten No. 1 seed (Indiana). If you aren’t a genuine title threat, you evidently don’t have a chance against the Ducks, and James Madison most certainly didn’t have a chance Saturday night in Eugene.
Dante Moore finds Malik Benson to extend Oregon’s lead vs. JMU.
As with Ole Miss-Tulane, when you’re heavily favored and immediately lay the hammer down, “win probability added” isn’t a very helpful concept. But because I’m a completionist, here’s the win probability chart. JMU needed a fast start and got the opposite.
JMU is built to continue to play at a high level within the Sun Belt, especially with new coach Billy Napier, the author of a particularly physical and impressive run at Louisiana before his tenure at Florida. But the Dukes got a pretty clear indication of what might await if or when they make another run toward the CFP. Can they raise their game further?
When the playoff field was revealed two weeks ago, the first thing that caught my eye was the tantalizing prospect of an Oregon-Texas Tech quarterfinal. Oregon is still relatively new money as far as college football bluebloods go, and Tech is brand spanking new money. They’re both top-four in SP+, and they have done some of the best portal work in the country of late. They will meet in the Orange Bowl early on Jan. 1.
Can Oregon play the same type of precise and ridiculously fast ball against a Texas Tech defensive front that hasn’t been beaten much this season? Can Behren Morton and Tech’s explosive, but inconsistent, offense take what they’re given and avoid forcing the issue too much against an Oregon defense that prevents big plays well and punishes impatience (but did a little too much bending against JMU)? It’s the most interesting quarterfinal matchup.
This was obviously a terribly disappointing finish to the Jon Sumrall era. The newly hired Florida coach led the Green Wave to 20 wins in two seasons, plus a conference title (and wins over Northwestern and Duke) this season. But his team just wasn’t sharp Saturday. Missed tackles, dropped passes and quarterback mistakes weren’t a good reflection of how well they played down the stretch to secure a bid.
Still, Tulane has positioned itself as one of the strongest programs in the Group of 5. The Green Wave have won 43 games in four seasons under first Willie Fritz and then Sumrall. Now, Will Hall, a former Fritz and Sumrall assistant, takes over. He’ll have to weather the transfer portal moves as power conference programs come for successful G5 talent, but the Green Wave are as well-positioned as anyone to keep winning.
Ole Miss played well down the stretch as rumors swirled around Lane Kiffin’s potential departure, and in their first game post-Kiffin, they were absolutely dynamite. And now they get a chance to avenge their only loss of 2025. In a 43-35 decision at Georgia in Week 8, the Rebels led by nine into the fourth quarter until the Dawgs turned the tables late. Now, Ole Miss and Georgia will face off in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1.
In a game played in extremely windy conditions, the first three quarters featured more missed field goals (4) than points (3), but a nice run of passes from Reed set up Randy Bond’s game-tying 35-yarder. Toney’s fumble near midfield with 7:11 left seemed to set the Aggies up for a major opportunity. But Rueben Bain Jr. recorded his third sack of the game to force a punt that set up heroics from Fletcher and redemption for Toney.
Miami’s INT in end zone seals CFP First Round victory
The win probability chart barely moved over the course of the first three quarters, but it reached 67.1% for A&M following Toney’s fumble. However, some key plays made it lurch in Miami’s direction. As was the case for most of 2025, A&M absolutely owned third downs, going 8-for-18 (44.4%) while holding the Hurricanes to just 3-for-12 (25%). But Toney’s third-down score and Fitzgerald’s third-down pick got the job done.
Oklahoma’s offense had only 20 minutes in it. The Sooners were perfect out of the gate, bursting to a 17-0 lead against an Alabama team that looked completely unprepared for the moment. But the Crimson Tide adjusted and rallied, and OU had only a brief answer. From 17 down, Bama outscored its hosts 34-7 from there.
1. Over the first 19 minutes, Oklahoma went up 17-0 while outgaining Bama by a stunning 181-12 margin. It could have been worse, too, as the Sooners’ Owen Heinecke came within millimeters of a blocked punt that might have produced a safety or a touchdown.
Zabien Brown stuns OU with game-tying pick-six before halftime
Zabien Brown takes a big-time interception 50 yards to the house to tie the score before halftime.
OU responded briefly, cutting the margin to three points early in the fourth quarter thanks to a 37-yard Deion Burks touchdown. But the Sooners’ offense couldn’t do enough, and kicker Tate Sandell, the Groza Award winner, missed two late field goal attempts to assure a Bama win.
Tate Sandell’s back-to-back FG misses help Alabama secure 1st-round win
Oklahoma beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa in November — in the game that eventually certified the Sooners’ CFP bid — thanks to a pick-six and special teams dominance. But the tables turned completely in Norman. Brown’s pick-six was huge, and special teams abandoned the Sooners, both with Sandell’s misses and a botched punt in the second quarter.
The blown early lead leaves Oklahoma with quite the ignominious feat: In the history of the College Football Playoff, teams are 28-2 with a 17-point lead: OU is 0-2, and everyone else is 28-0. Ouch.
We knew that whenever Oklahoma’s season ended, offense would be the primary reason. The Sooners survived playing with almost no margin for error for most of the year. Their No. 49 ranking in offensive SP+ was the worst of any CFP team, but they got enough defense (third in defensive SP+), special teams (21st in special teams SP+) and quality red zone play to overcome it.
The Sooners’ defense still played well Friday night — Bama gained only 260 total yards (4.8 per play) — but the special teams miscues put more pressure on the offense, and after a brilliant start, it ran out of steam. Mateer began the game 10-for-15 for 132 yards with a touchdown, 26 rushing yards and a rushing TD, but his last 31 pass attempts gained just 149 yards with five sacks and the pick, and his last nine non-sack rushes gained just 15 yards.
Alabama’s reward for the comeback win is a trip out West: The Tide will meet unbeaten and top-seeded Indiana in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1. Bama’s defense will obviously face a stiffer test from Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers’ attack, but Bama’s defense has been mostly up for the test this season. The Tide’s ability to pull an upset will be determined by Ty Simpson and the Alabama passing game.
But kudos to the Tide for getting off the mat. They were lifeless at the start, missing tackles and blocks and looking as unprepared as they did in their season-opening loss to Florida State. But Brooks’ playmaking lit the fuse, and Bama charged back.
The Dukes, making their playoff debut, acquitted themselves well enough on offense, eventually gaining 509 yards and scoring 34 despite leaving a few points on the board with failed red zone opportunities. But their defense, so good within the Sun Belt, got obliterated by an endless early stream of Oregon big-play threats. JMU pulled off a pretty high-wire act in 2025, taking risks, keeping defenders in the box and leaving their perimeter defenders in isolated situations. The Dukes got away with it against Louisville, allowing just 264 yards and 21 offensive points. But Oregon’s offensive line is much, much better than Louisville’s, and JMU couldn’t create any disruption. That only left the big plays. In the first half, the Dukes created zero tackles for loss and gave up five gains of 30-plus yards.
