Miami’s INT in end zone seals CFP First Round victory (0:41)Marcel Reed makes an inaccurate throw and Bryce Fitzgerald picks it off in the end zone to seal Miami’s win over Texas A&M. (0:41)
None of the hand-wringing around who should be included in the 12-team playoff matters anymore. All that matters is advancing to the quarterfinals, and three teams have done so already.
Alabama rallied from down 17-0 to beat Oklahoma on Friday, moving on to play top-seeded Indiana in the Rose Bowl.
ESPN’s college football writers are already looking ahead, so here’s a closer look at those quarterfinal matchups.
Road to the playoff: Texas Tech had never come close to competing for the College Football Playoff before, but it made all the right moves this offseason and won the program’s first-ever Big 12 title.
Joey McGuire hired two excellent new coordinators in Mack Leftwich and Shiel Wood. General manager James Blanchard and the program’s billionaire benefactors put together an all-time great transfer portal class with 11 new starters who have perfectly complemented the returning talent and culture. They put it all together and then went out and practically steamrolled their schedule.
The Red Raiders won by more than 21 points in every victory this season, finishing with the best scoring margin (552-142) in the FBS. Their exceptional defensive line, led by Lombardi Award winner Jacob Rodriguez, has helped shape one of the best defenses in the country, a unit that is No. 1 against the run and top five in many other metrics. The team’s lone loss came by four points on the road against defending Big 12 champ Arizona State when quarterback Behren Morton was out due to injury.
McGuire calls him the toughest player he has ever coached, and Texas Tech’s title hopes depend on keeping Morton protected and in a good rhythm.
Biggest question: Can Texas Tech’s offense execute at a consistently high level in the red zone? The Red Raiders have played five games against teams that achieved winning records in 2025. They’ve scored touchdowns on just 32% of drives that reached the red zone, totaling 13 field goals and eight touchdowns over 25 opportunities in those games. That percentage vs. winning teams ranks fourth worst in the FBS.
Place-kicker Stone Harrington has had a solid year on field goal attempts (22-of-27), and McGuire clearly trusts him. But this team settled for a total of 11 field goal tries over its two matchups against BYU with two misses in the Big 12 title game.
A lot of factors play into this, including Texas Tech’s trust in its defense. It’ll be interesting to see what solutions Leftwich and his offensive coaches come up with from a playcalling standpoint for finishing drives in the CFP quarterfinals.
Player to watch: The marquee player is quarterback Dante Moore, who could be in his final days with the Ducks. Moore has played his way to the top of ESPN NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr.’s 2026 Big Board but has yet to indicate publicly what his future plans are. Against James Madison, Moore led the Ducks to touchdowns on each of their first five drives and finished 19-of-27 for 313 yards with four TDs. He also ran for a score.
Georgia’s offensive line ended up being among the better ones in the SEC. The team ranked third in the league in sacks allowed (18) and fifth in rushing (186.6 yards) after struggling mightily to run the ball in 2024. How well will the line hold up if the Bulldogs end up playing a menacing defensive front such as Miami’s or Texas Tech’s?
They can win if…: Georgia sticks to basics by running the ball and continuing to play tough, physical defense. Defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann caught plenty of flak early in the season when his unit struggled to stop opponents on third down. But the Bulldogs are starting to resemble the defenses that helped them win back-to-back CFP national championships in 2021 and 2022.
In its past four games, Georgia hasn’t allowed more than 81 rushing yards or 274 yards of total offense. Its opponents — Texas, Charlotte, Georgia Tech and Alabama — went a combined 10-for-48 (20.8%) on third down. The Bulldogs forced five turnovers and had nine sacks combined in those contests.
Sophomores Chris Cole (4.5 sacks) and Quintavius Johnson (2 sacks) are getting pressure on the quarterback, and Ellis Robinson IV is living up to his billing as the No. 1 cornerback in the class of 2024 by ESPN Recruiting.
If Georgia can continue to run the ball with Nate Frazier and Stockton, and its defense gets opponents off the field, the Bulldogs will be tough to beat. — Mark Schlabach
Player to watch: Chambliss. He has been the player to watch over the course of the season, not only for the improbability of his rise but also for the way he has played. Following his ascension to starter, Chambliss became the first SEC player with 300 passing yards and 50 rushing yards in three straight games over the past 30 years. Against Tulane on Saturday, he completed 23 of 29 passes for 282 yards with one touchdown and ran six times for 36 yards with two scores. — Andrea Adelson
Road to the playoff: Coach Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers heard the hate directed at them at the end of their historic 2024 season and decided to run it back and perform even better this fall. Indiana built on its first 10-win season and first CFP appearance by becoming the only FBS team to run the table, posting a 13-0 mark, winning its first outright Big Ten title since 1945 and securing the top seed in the CFP field.
Player to watch: After a team-record 11 wins in 2024, Indiana looked for areas to upgrade, including quarterback, despite Kurtis Rourke’s strong performance (3,042 passing yards, 29 touchdowns). The Hoosiers landed an even more coveted transfer quarterback in Cal’s Fernando Mendoza, who elevated the passing attack even further and became the school’s first Heisman Trophy winner.
Mendoza has delivered four near-flawless performances with more than 85% completions and four or more touchdowns and no interceptions. He occupies the top three spots on Indiana’s single-game completion percentage chart. Mendoza helped rally Indiana for key road wins against Penn State and Iowa and overcame one of his few major mistakes — a pick-six at Oregon — to lead two fourth-quarter scoring drives. Mendoza leads the FBS with 33 touchdown passes, an Indiana single-season record.
They can win if …: Alabama limits its mistakes, and Simpson plays like the Heisman-caliber quarterback we saw over the first half of the season. The Crimson Tide beat Oklahoma at its own game in the first round, forcing quarterback John Mateer into timely errors and pouncing on miscues such as Grayson Miller’s bobbled punt attempt before halftime. Couple that with composed, accurate quarterback play from Simpson, and the Crimson Tide have the tools to give Indiana trouble. — Eli Lederman
Then on Saturday, Miami, Ole Miss and Oregon advanced. The Canes beat Texas A&M thanks to an interception in the end zone in the final seconds of the game, and they will play Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. The Rebels took care of business against Tulane 41-10 and will face Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. The Ducks beat James Madison 51-34 in the final first-round game and will face Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl. The Rose, Sugar and Orange bowls will be played on Jan. 1, with the Cotton Bowl set for Dec. 31.
They can win if…: Texas Tech’s front seven keeps playing at an elite level. The Red Raiders led the FBS in pressures for most of the season and are also No. 1 in takeaways with 31 after grabbing four more in the Big 12 title game. The defensive line is as good as it gets with three first-team All-Big 12 performers. Rodriguez is enjoying a historic season at linebacker and also won the Butkus Award. His fellow linebackers Ben Roberts and John Curry are having terrific years as well. This team wins with defense and absolutely believes it can compete with the best of the best. In the playoff, that starts with Oregon. — Max Olson
They can win if…: They limit the impact of Texas Tech’s front seven. No one in the Big 12 was equipped to deal with how dominant the Red Raiders are up front, and that set the tone almost every week. Oregon has an offensive line that should give Texas Tech its toughest challenge of the season, but — perhaps more importantly — the Ducks have a bunch of speedsters who can make life difficult on the perimeter. Neither of these teams has lost since mid-October, and on paper it might be the most evenly matched game of the quarterfinals. — Kyle Bonagura
Player to watch: Georgia’s offense has mostly been steady with Stockton running the show, averaging 31.9 points and 406.9 yards per game. Receiver Zachariah Branch, a transfer from USC, has been Stockton’s No. 1 option in the passing game. Branch, from Las Vegas, is one of the most explosive players in the FBS. In 12 games, Branch has 73 receptions for 744 yards with five touchdowns. He needs only four catches to break the UGA single-season record of 76, set by Brice Hunter in 1993. A former track star, Branch has the speed and elusiveness to score every time he touches the ball. He makes plays that others don’t, as evidenced by his 13-yard touchdown catch in the SEC championship game when he sidestepped a couple of Tide defenders and then burst into the end zone.
Biggest question: Georgia’s offensive line struggled early but improved throughout the season once key players returned from injury. Then the Bulldogs lost starting center Drew Bobo to a foot injury in their 16-9 victory against Georgia Tech in the regular-season finale. Bobo, whose father is Georgia offensive coordinator Mike Bobo, will miss the CFP because of the injury. Redshirt freshman Malachi Toliver started at center against Alabama in the SEC championship and played well. Toliver, 6-foot-5 and 320 pounds, appeared in five games and made an earlier start against Charlotte. He had a couple of extra weeks to work with Stockton because of the Bulldogs’ first-round bye in the CFP.