play1:36Why Dopp is hesitant to add Trevor Lawrence in Week 16Daniel Dopp analyzes if it’s worth adding Trevor Lawrence against the Broncos following his big performance against the Jets.
play1:07What does Quinn Ewers at QB mean for Jaylen Waddle in fantasy?Daniel Dopp breaks down whether fantasy managers should start Jaylen Waddle with Quinn Ewers starting as quarterback.
play1:30Daniel Dopp: Travis Etienne Jr. still a lineup lock in Week 16Daniel Dopp explains why Travis Etienne Jr. should still be in fantasy lineups despite a tough matchup vs. the Broncos.
Is the lack of Micah Parsons an EXCUSE for the Packers? Stephen A. says YES (14:35)Stephen A. Smith, Dan Orlovsky, Ryan Clark and Mina Kimes join Shae Cornette on “First Take” to preview the Green Bay Packers vs. the Chicago Bears in Week 16. (14:35)
Why Dopp is hesitant to add Trevor Lawrence in Week 16Daniel Dopp analyzes if it’s worth adding Trevor Lawrence against the Broncos following his big performance against the Jets.
Daniel Dopp analyzes if it’s worth adding Trevor Lawrence against the Broncos following his big performance against the Jets.
What does Quinn Ewers at QB mean for Jaylen Waddle in fantasy?Daniel Dopp breaks down whether fantasy managers should start Jaylen Waddle with Quinn Ewers starting as quarterback.
Daniel Dopp breaks down whether fantasy managers should start Jaylen Waddle with Quinn Ewers starting as quarterback.
Daniel Dopp: Travis Etienne Jr. still a lineup lock in Week 16Daniel Dopp explains why Travis Etienne Jr. should still be in fantasy lineups despite a tough matchup vs. the Broncos.
Daniel Dopp explains why Travis Etienne Jr. should still be in fantasy lineups despite a tough matchup vs. the Broncos.
Value is value, no matter where — or how — you find it. And that’s what we’ll aim to do each week in this space — find value.
Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X’s and O’s to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league.
These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.
Solak: The Buffalo Bills’ win last week over the Patriots was a much weirder game than we wanted it to be. Special teams, explosive runs and key penalties created odd game-script and field-position battles. While the Patriots’ strength of schedule is a serious concern, and a loss against the Bills a reminder of their limitations, I don’t think it was as bad of a setback as the market seems to.
As a road dog traveling to Baltimore, the Patriots are still in control of their destiny in the AFC East. Win out and they win the division. Their remaining schedule? The Ravens, New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. This is their last big game of the regular season, and I expect Mike Vrabel to get them up for it.
Bowen: The Chargers defense is one of the league’s best, allowing only 174.4 passing yards per game. And it will lean on its split-safety coverages to limit the explosive play passing versus Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. Take the Chargers to cover on the road.
Solak: Indianapolis’ offensive approach in Philip Rivers’ first career start was eye-popping. The once highly-explosive Colts offense became extremely incremental. They ran the ball on 19 of their 23 first-and-10s, Rivers averaged 4.7 air yards per attempt and only 2.5 seconds in time to throw, and the Colts’ longest pass was 17 yards.
Solak: I’m buying the number here, as this line has vacillated between 2.5 and 3 throughout the week. I don’t see any 3.5s popping up and would not be surprised if we close at 2.5 before kickoff.
The recent resurgence of J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings’ passing game has coincided with two games against the worst pass defenses in football: Dallas and Washington. That is not an exaggeration. By total passing EPA surrendered this season (and by EPA per dropback), the Cowboys and Commanders are 31st and 32nd, respectively.
Two team, six-point teaser (-120): Philadelphia Eagles (-1) at Washington Commanders and Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (-1)
Bowen: Taking the spread here works given the state of the Commanders defense, a unit that just gave up over 350 total yards to the New York Giants in Week 14, with 146 of those yards coming on the ground. Good matchup for Saquon Barkley and the Eagles run game.
Why Dopp is hesitant to add Trevor Lawrence in Week 16
For all the bad vibes in Philadelphia, the defense is still playing great. The team ranks fifth in EPA per play this season and third since Week 11. When we get that unit against a backup quarterback — even a good backup such as Marcus Mariota — the chances of a pick-six or a strip sack leading to a scoop-and-score are increased, particularly with the Eagles being 7-point favorites. I make this +444, so it’s only a small value but a fun bet.
Redmond has been an effective run-stuffer this season, with a 39.6% run stop win rate that ranks fifth highest among qualifying defensive tackles. But my model quibbles with exactly how high the line is here: 4.5 shaded toward the over is a lot for a defensive lineman, even against the run-heavy Giants. And it’s not like the Giants are expected to get out to a huge lead and only run the ball because the Vikings are favored.
Scott has gone under this line in eight of 14 games this season. That’s not a reason to make this bet, but I think it’s indicative of what our expectations should be for this common situation. Considering we’re getting light plus-money on the under, I think we ought to take the chance.
What does Quinn Ewers at QB mean for Jaylen Waddle in fantasy?
Bowen: Lawrence lit up a subpar New York Jets defense in Week 15, throwing for a season-best 330 yards. But this Denver Broncos unit is different, allowing only 196.9 passing yards per game. Look for the Broncos to play heavy man coverage while squeezing the pocket with pressure.
While I know most people aren’t keyed in on the Jets’ secondary availability at this stage in the season, they’ve been hit by a brutal stretch of injuries since the Sauce Gardner trade. Rookie outside CB Azareye’h Thomas is on injured reserve for the rest of the season, as is trade acquisition Jarvis Brownlee Jr. CB4 Isaiah Oliver also is on injured reserve, leaving the Jets with one starter (Brandon Stephens) left at cornerback.
Bowen: Allen has thrown three touchdown passes in three of his past five games, and this Cleveland Browns defense is fading on the tape. This isn’t the same unit we watched earlier in the season. Plus, the Browns have allowed two touchdown passes in back-to-back games.
Solak: The Browns have been one of the worst defenses for rushing quarterbacks this season. Opposing quarterbacks average 8.3 rushing yards and 3.0 yards per rush against Cleveland, both of which are bottom-five numbers leaguewide. Even if you remove kneel-downs — opposing quarterbacks take a lot of knees against the 3-11 Browns — they allow only 4.9 yards per rush (22nd) and 9.1 yards per game (31st).
Quarterbacks just don’t get involved as ball carriers against a Cleveland defense that pressures the pocket well and has the collective team speed and strength to get passers down when they try to escape the pocket. Allen has seen a big uptick in rushing attempts over the past few weeks, but he has been working his way out of big second-half deficits. That’s unlikely to happen again as a 10.5-point favorite over the Browns.
Because the Giants are underdogs, that pushes the odds of Dart throwing an interception up, to the point that my model makes the over -108. And I don’t hate that I have Brian Flores’ defense on my side here.
Daniel Dopp: Travis Etienne Jr. still a lineup lock in Week 16
Bowen: Swift has rushed for 60 or more yards in three straight games, which includes the 63 yards he had in the Week 14 head-to-head game versus Green Bay. Ben Johnson’s run game is the best I’ve seen on tape. Take the over.
Bowen: Mitchell has rushed for 66 or more yards in back-to-back games, with at least six carries in each. And he has the juice to create explosive plays on the ground. Let’s bet the over versus the New England Patriots in the Sunday night game.
Bowen: Achane has posted 120 total yards in four of his past five games. So, let’s take the positive matchup versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense here. And with rookie quarterback Ewers making his first pro start, expect Achane to be featured in the game plan.
Bowen: Let’s stay with Achane as a pass catcher. Achane caught six passes for 67 yards in the Week 15 game versus Pittsburgh, plus he has topped 30 yards receiving in four of his past six games. Expect checkdown throws and screens with Ewers under center against Cincy.
Solak: Achane has been a solid under bet in the receiving game this year, as his enormous success as a traditional ball carrier has led to fewer touches as a receiver. The Bengals, however, are a great team for RB receiving production, as they play tons of soft zone coverage and have very shaky tacklers in the second level of the defense — checkdowns can go far with Achane against the Cincinnati linebackers.
With Tua Tagovailoa benched and Ewers in line to start his first NFL game, all Dolphins receiving props are depressed. To insulate his rookie, expect head coach Mike McDaniel to dial up multiple designed throws to Achane, and expect Ewers to be fast to the checkdown when the Bengals pack their downfield zones. With Achane’s speed, we can get to this number in a few catches, but I expect the playcalling will get us there over volume.
Bowen: Williams has exactly seven receptions in each of his past three games, and he’s getting loose at multiple levels of the field — deep throws, crossers, unders. Take Williams here versus Pittsburgh on the indoor turf in Detroit.