play1:07Schrager: Darnold “rewrote his own narrative” vs. RamsThe “Get Up” crew breaks down the Seahawks’ overtime win over the Rams in Week 16 and what it means for Sam Darnold moving forward.
play2:26Eisen: Stafford’s performance vs. Seahawks puts him atop MVP raceRich Eisen explains why Matthew Stafford belongs atop the MVP race and how he has strengthened his Hall of Fame case this season.
play0:24Trevor Lawrence and Parker Washington connect for 12-yard TDParker Washington makes an amazing catch in the end zone to give the Jaguars an early lead.
play0:30Bo Nix throws an INT to stall Broncos’ comeback tryJarrian Jones picks off Bo Nix to stall the Broncos’ drive and give the ball back to the Jaguars.
play0:50Rhamondre Stevenson runs in go-ahead TD for PatsRhamondre Stevenson rushes in a 21-yard touchdown to give the Patriots a late lead.
Ryan Clark: Sam Darnold has an opportunity to reshape his entire perception (1:00)Ryan Clark breaks down the Seahawks’ win over the Rams, saying Sam Darnold can entirely reshape how he’s perceived with a playoff run. (1:00)
Schrager: Darnold “rewrote his own narrative” vs. RamsThe “Get Up” crew breaks down the Seahawks’ overtime win over the Rams in Week 16 and what it means for Sam Darnold moving forward.
The “Get Up” crew breaks down the Seahawks’ overtime win over the Rams in Week 16 and what it means for Sam Darnold moving forward.
Eisen: Stafford’s performance vs. Seahawks puts him atop MVP raceRich Eisen explains why Matthew Stafford belongs atop the MVP race and how he has strengthened his Hall of Fame case this season.
Rich Eisen explains why Matthew Stafford belongs atop the MVP race and how he has strengthened his Hall of Fame case this season.
Trevor Lawrence and Parker Washington connect for 12-yard TDParker Washington makes an amazing catch in the end zone to give the Jaguars an early lead.
Bo Nix throws an INT to stall Broncos’ comeback tryJarrian Jones picks off Bo Nix to stall the Broncos’ drive and give the ball back to the Jaguars.
Rhamondre Stevenson runs in go-ahead TD for PatsRhamondre Stevenson rushes in a 21-yard touchdown to give the Patriots a late lead.
With two full weeks to go, the identities of 12 of the league’s 14 playoff teams are basically sorted, including all of the wild-card teams. After losses by the Colts in Week 15 and the Lions in Week 16, it would take something truly extraordinary for those teams to climb back into the playoff picture. The only real races left for playoff berths are in the AFC North and NFC South, where the principals will all meet in Week 18 rematches.
The seeding within and particularly at the top of those AFC and NFC brackets, though, is chaotic. The Broncos and Rams came into Week 16 as the top seeds in their respective conferences. They both left the week with losses. The Broncos are still narrowly atop the AFC, but their grip on a potential top seed and sense of invincibility have weakened after their 11-game win streak was snapped Sunday.
Things are much worse for the Rams, who had seemed to have some sort of psychic hold on Sam Darnold and the Seahawks. Despite leading 30-14 with the ball and 9:39 to go, L.A. couldn’t put Seattle away Thursday night. The Seahawks forced overtime and won the game on a gutsy (and thoughtful) 2-point conversion, shifting the balance of power in the NFC.
The Rams were arguably the better team for most of the next 10 minutes. They drove into field goal range, but Harrison Mevis missed a 48-yarder that would have given them the lead with 2:11 to go. The two teams traded possessions to end regulation, but when the Rams got the ball first to start overtime, Matthew Stafford hit Nacua for a 41-yard touchdown, forcing the Seahawks to score a touchdown to tie the score.
But the Seahawks did more than tie it. Darnold had his best drive of the night, hitting Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp for big completions. A bullet pass found Smith-Njigba for a touchdown. And then, with a slow-developing 2-point play, Darnold held his nerve and hit little-used blocking tight end Eric Saubert to finish the comeback and push the Seahawks atop the NFC.
In the first half Thursday, the goal seemed to be playing an entirely different style of football to avoid negative plays. Darnold has been at his best in 2025 throwing downfield off play-action, and heading into the second Rams game, his average throw had traveled 8.4 yards in the air, the sixth highest in the NFL.
Through the first two quarters of Thursday’s game, though, Darnold had thrown only six passes. He was 4-of-6 for 72 yards, but most of those yards had come on a 46-yard screen pass to Kenneth Walker III, where the Seahawks showed play-action and sent two receivers deep before unloading a ball into the flat. Darnold’s average pass traveled just 0.8 yards in the air. Essentially, the Seahawks were limiting their exposure to Darnold.
Schrager: Darnold “rewrote his own narrative” vs. Rams
Kubiak’s offense isn’t all stretch zone like his dad’s, but according to ESPN’s run classification data, the Seahawks came into Week 16 using zone runs on 66.4% of their snaps this season, the sixth-highest rate. There’s nothing wrong with heavy doses of zone runs if they work, but the Seahawks haven’t run the ball well all year.
The problem, of course, is that Kubiak’s play-action game is built (most extensively) through zone runs, and that has been the driving force through Seattle’s offense all season. Darnold was 8-of-12 for 140 yards and two scores using play-action Thursday, but as a pure dropback passer, he went 14-of-22 for 130 yards with two picks. Darnold is averaging an unreal 12.4 yards per attempt off play-action, but that drops to 7.4 yards per attempt without it.
And thankfully for Darnold and this offense, that matchup would likely take place in Seattle. The Seahawks get the Panthers next week before finishing up against the 49ers in San Francisco in Week 18. Win both of those games, and the Seahawks will be the 1-seed in the NFC. Lose either, and the odds drop below 20%, although the Seahawks could lose to the Panthers and beat the 49ers and win the top seed with some help. Still, Mike Macdonald’s team won’t want to ask for any assistance.
For the Rams, meanwhile, the loss was a disaster. Stafford was seemingly on his way to winning MVP with another great prime-time performance. McVay’s team was in control of its own destiny. With the Falcons and Cardinals to come over the next two weeks, the Rams would have to avoid a repeat of their letdown loss to the Panthers, but they were going to be heavy favorites to win each of their remaining games. The path to a first-round bye and a potential return to the Super Bowl was clear.
In the Rams’ Week 3 loss to the Eagles, then-starting kicker Joshua Karty had two fourth-quarter field goal attempts blocked, including a 44-yarder that would have won the game on the final snap. Two weeks later, against the 49ers, Karty missed a 53-yard attempt and had an extra point blocked.
Eisen: Stafford’s performance vs. Seahawks puts him atop MVP race
There were other regulars whom the Seahawks were still able to pick on. Kinchens had a rough game, as he was blocked out of the play on Walker’s long touchdown run and juked onto the ground when Barner switched field and ran to the corner for the game-tying 26-yard score. Durant, arguably the team’s best cornerback, couldn’t squeeze the deep out to Kupp in overtime in zone coverage and then couldn’t run with Smith-Njigba with unfavorable leverage on the ensuing touchdown.
Once Nacua went down earlier this season, though, the Rams fell for a new tactic: 13 personnel, with three tight ends on the field at the same time. Since their Week 7 win over the Jaguars, the Rams have lined up in 13 personnel roughly 44% of the time, an unheard-of figure for an offense that might not have run more than a handful of 13 personnel snaps all season most years.
With Adams injured on Thursday, it’s no surprise that the Rams leaned heavily into 13 personnel as their base offense. The Rams were in 13 personnel for 54 of their 88 snaps, or more than 61% of the time. If Tyler Higbee had been available to play, that figure might have been even higher. And the Rams were explosive out of those groupings, which can be a problem for other offenses when they get bigger.
The issue is that they weren’t efficient out of 13 in the second half. The Rams ran a 64% success rate out of 13 personnel in the first half, which is a truly elite rate for any offensive package. While they created explosives out of 13 in the second half, their success rate fell all the way to 28%, which isn’t sustainable for an offense.
And unfortunately for the Rams, the explosives weren’t enough. The 58-yard completion to Nacua at the end of the third quarter that set up a touchdown and the 41-yard score in overtime were both out of 13 personnel, but the Rams went five drives without scoring between those two big plays, including three three-and-outs. Those five failed drives in the fourth quarter might end up being the difference between landing the 1-seed in the NFC or spending January on the road as a 5- or 6-seed.
But Lawrence went 23-of-36 for 279 yards and three touchdowns, adding another score on the ground. His 87.4 Total QBR was the best mark anyone has posted in a game against the Broncos’ defense all season and nearly 37 points above average for opposing quarterbacks. While Lawrence took five sacks, he lost only 14 combined yards on those plays.
The game plan wasn’t surprising. A normally efficient Jags rushing attack didn’t have a great day, as Travis Etienne Jr. and LeQuint Allen Jr. combined for 60 yards on 20 carries, but coach Liam Coen tried to get the run going. The Jaguars also wrote off throwing toward Pat Surtain II, who spent most of the day on Brian Thomas Jr. and was thrown at just one time.
Instead, the Jags were able to weaponize a few problems that have worked for other teams as they try to pierce holes in a dominant Denver defense. One was by going after Riley Moss, the other starting outside cornerback for the Broncos. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Moss was targeted 12 times Sunday, with opposing receivers catching eight balls for 92 yards.