Ben SolakDec 23, 2025, 07:00 AM ETCloseBen Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network.
play0:43How the Lions fumbled their playoff chancesEric Woodyard reports on the mistakes that cost the Lions against the Steelers.
play1:11Brock Purdy slings 5 TDs as 49ers rout Colts on MNFBrock Purdy delivers a masterful performance to lead the 49ers to a big win over the Colts.
play1:55Can Bears make a Super Bowl run this season?The “Get Up” crew debates whether the Bears can make a Super Bowl run after Caleb Williams led the team to an OT win vs. the Packers.
play2:26Eisen: Stafford’s performance vs. Seahawks puts him atop MVP raceRich Eisen explains why Matthew Stafford belongs atop the MVP race and how he has strengthened his Hall of Fame case this season.
play1:00Is Justin Herbert a clear-cut fantasy starter?Tristan H. Cockcroft evaluates Justin Herbert as a fantasy quarterback going forward.
Why Foxworth isn’t ready to close the window on the Lions (1:32)Domonique Foxworth and Dan Orlovsky break down what the Lions’ disappointing season means for their Super Bowl chances moving forward. (1:32)
How the Lions fumbled their playoff chancesEric Woodyard reports on the mistakes that cost the Lions against the Steelers.
Brock Purdy slings 5 TDs as 49ers rout Colts on MNFBrock Purdy delivers a masterful performance to lead the 49ers to a big win over the Colts.
Can Bears make a Super Bowl run this season?The “Get Up” crew debates whether the Bears can make a Super Bowl run after Caleb Williams led the team to an OT win vs. the Packers.
The “Get Up” crew debates whether the Bears can make a Super Bowl run after Caleb Williams led the team to an OT win vs. the Packers.
Eisen: Stafford’s performance vs. Seahawks puts him atop MVP raceRich Eisen explains why Matthew Stafford belongs atop the MVP race and how he has strengthened his Hall of Fame case this season.
Rich Eisen explains why Matthew Stafford belongs atop the MVP race and how he has strengthened his Hall of Fame case this season.
Is Justin Herbert a clear-cut fantasy starter?Tristan H. Cockcroft evaluates Justin Herbert as a fantasy quarterback going forward.
The Big Thing: What went wrong for four teams trying to get into the playoffs?
Week 16 of the NFL season is in the books. We entered the slate with two guaranteed playoff teams, and we leave it with 10 — what an eventful weekend! The Jaguars, Chargers and Bills all clinched with the Colts’ loss Monday night, leaving eight teams competing for four spots and others vying for positioning.
You know what isn’t vying for a positioning? This column, which comes to you every Tuesday. This is the last one, though, as we reset our content for the playoffs. Thank you to everyone who made my NFL thoughts a part of their coffee, commute or workplace procrastination this season.
I’ll be back next Tuesday with my All-Rookie team (ooh! fun!) and every week following with postseason analysis. Stay tuned!
Jump to a section: Big Thing: Four teams outside looking in Second Take: Ben Johnson is COY Mailbag: Answering questions from … you Next Ben Stats: Wild Week 16 stats
Every week, this column will kick off with one wide look at a key game, player or trend from the previous slate of NFL action. What does it mean for the rest of the season? This week, we’re looking at the four teams that are still alive for playoff spots but aren’t currently occupying one of the 14 berths.
The 2025 playoffs are mostly full. The Panthers, Texans, Packers and Steelers currently hold the remaining open spots, with the Buccaneers, Lions, Colts and Ravens outside the field. All four of those squads still have a shot — but to be on the outside looking in as we approach Week 17 is a sign that your season did not go as planned.
At no spot on the roster have the Lions suffered attrition worse than the interior offensive line. Center Frank Ragnow retired and was replaced by Graham Glasgow, who was replaced at left guard by 2024 backup Christian Mahogany. Rookie second-rounder Tate Ratledge stepped in at right guard for Kevin Zeitler, who left in free agency. The Lions were going to be thin on the interior, but it was a risk an increasingly expensive roster would need to take.
It has backfired spectacularly. Four players have taken meaningful snaps at left guard this season, as Mahogany and primary backup Kayode Awosika have endured injuries that forced Trystan Colon and Miles Frazier onto the field. On Sunday against the Steelers, the Lions’ third center (Kingsley Eguakun) started the first game of his career, as Glasgow, Colon and Awosika were not available.
The interior offensive line also limited the running game. The Lions ended Sunday with only 15 rushing yards, their fewest in any game since 2016; they had only 12 rushing attempts, their fewest in any game since 2012. Pittsburgh edge rushers Alex Highsmith and Jack Sawyer played extremely aggressively downhill, closing hard on interior runs and beating pullers to the point of attack.
When Detroit fails to control unblocked edge rushers, Goff’s lack of mobility and inability to throw on the move can hamper the offense. Over the past six weeks, Goff has 13 dropbacks on designed rollouts (2.2 per game), with only five completions for 22 yards. Ideally, the coordinator of a team with liable interior pass protection can move the launch point for his quarterback — but that button isn’t available for head coach Dan Campbell.
Since Campbell took over playcalling, it’s worth noting that the offense has clearly improved. We now have a seven-game sample of Campbell’s playcalling relative to the eight games of coordinator John Morton prior to the switch, and the offense has generally moved the ball more reliably despite the Lions’ record in Morton games (5-3) being superior to Campbell games (3-4).
The Lions have cratered in the back half of the season, though. They’ve fallen from eighth in EPA per play to 28th and ninth in points per drive to 28th. Big plays are ripping through the depleted secondary at a 17.5% clip, second only to the Bengals for the highest rate in the NFL.
This is, of course, doubly frustrating because it’s also the story of last season. Detroit had some defensive success early but limped into the postseason without Alim McNeill, Aidan Hutchinson, Marcus Davenport, Derrick Barnes, Carlton Davis III and Amik Robertson. Their divisional-round exit against the Commanders was swift and merciless.
Because injuries have played a key part in both the offensive and defensive stories in Detroit, it’s tempting to wave away the entire season with gauze and bandages. But we should resist that temptation. That the Lions’ depth was tested was a predictable and even inescapable reality of transitioning from the plucky upstart riddled with rookie contracts to an established contender with expensive veteran deals. The margins were always going to get thinner.
Eric Woodyard reports on the mistakes that cost the Lions against the Steelers.
Offensively, the Lions’ playcalling is not an issue, but it’s also not ideal. They experienced the expected drop-off of going from a truly elite playcaller (Ben Johnson) to an inexperienced one (Morton), and Campbell had to scramble midseason to stem the bleeding. I imagine Campbell will hire a new offensive playcaller this offseason and demote Morton to senior offensive assistant (what he was in 2022).
In 2021 and 2022, the Lions had time to develop their youth under the cover of no expectations. All of their mistakes and losses are in the sunlight now. Campbell is known as an elite developer, which alone is reason to buy stock in the 2026 Lions. But expectations force urgency and foster impatience. Once again, the margins are thinner.
Here’s a graph of Baker Mayfield’s success rate in all of his career games. It’s a 10-game rolling average, with his different games for different teams highlighted.
A prevailing and reasonable theory for Mayfield’s deterioration in play this season is that he is playing through injury again. He suffered a sprain to his non-throwing shoulder against the Rams last month. But even before that, there was a weird three-week stretch in which he didn’t scramble at all, and it feels like his accuracy has been scattershot all season.
But Mayfield’s off-target rate this season is 16.8%, right around his career average (16.2%). The outlier season was actually last year when he had an 11.8% off-target rate — easily the best of his career. His completion rate this season (61.6%) is right below his career average (63.3%), while last season’s 71.4% rate was the best of his career by more than 7 percentage points.
But still, Mayfield has not been good. He is back to highly erratic pocket play now that the Buccaneers’ offensive line is less than elite. (Two backup guards will likely play the rest of the season.) His escapability is not nearly as good as he thinks it is, which leads to unnecessary sacks for large losses. And because he plays with such frenetic feet, he’s liable to badly spray makeable passes.
Mayfield is still a solid starting quarterback, and his contract extension is very reasonable. He has been a problem for the Buccaneers this season — but not their biggest one.
Bowles’ team philosophy is clearly reflected in how his defense has performed over this large sample. The Bucs are 26th in EPA per dropback faced but fifth in EPA per rush faced; they are 25th and fourth in the same pass/run split by success rate. Independent of player injury/matchup and team offensive performance, stopping the run at all costs has left the Buccaneers’ pass defense liable.
Tampa Bay has endured a gamut of injuries, especially on offense, and remains in striking distance of the NFC South crown so long as it wins its Week 17 game against the Dolphins (and Quinn Ewers). Then it’s win-and-in versus the Panthers, a team the Bucs very well could have — and should have — beaten on the last drive this past week. Things are far from disastrous.