Bracketology: Louisville up, Tennessee down as host battle heats up

By Charlie Creme Updated: 12/23/2025 at 8 a.m. ETGames have come to a halt, as the schedule is idle until Sunday. But when it resumes, conference play will hit in full force and the race to March really begins. Bracketology will be there every step of the way. We continue to project the bracket every Tuesday through early January, at which point we will update projections twice a week (Tuesday and Friday).

16Southern16Northwestern State11Syracuse11BYU16Abilene Christian16Mercer11South Dakota State11Virginia

Bracket WatchTop Overall SeedUConnFirst Team OutKansasLast Team InBYUThe Champions Classic was the marquee event of the past weekend. UConn-Iowa headlined the doubleheader in Brooklyn. But the opener between Louisville and Tennessee was the more impactful game. Since the season started, both teams figured to be in the mix for a top-four seed; and as the first two months unfolded, the Cardinals and the Lady Volunteers lingered on the top-16 bubble. Louisville’s decisive 89-65 win Saturday shifted positioning for each, and it will be a game the Cards point to when big decisions are made in March. Louisville is now solidly inside the top 16, while the Lady Vols have some ground to make up during SEC play. The conference is deep, but with losses to Louisville and NC State, a sixth- or seventh-place finish might no longer be good enough to get first- and second-round NCAA tournament games in Knoxville.

On the BubbleLast Four Byes Mississippi State Villanova Oregon IndianaLast Four In Virginia South Dakota St Syracuse BYUFirst Four Out Kansas Miami Rhode Island UtahNext Four Out Clemson Duke Columbia Virginia Tech

Last Four Byes Mississippi State Villanova Oregon Indiana

Last Four In Virginia South Dakota St Syracuse BYU

Region 1 Fort WorthStorrs1 UConn – aq16 FDU – aq8 Georgia9 MinnesotaIowa City5 Ole Miss12 Colorado State – aq4 Iowa13 UC Irvine – aqAmes6 Alabama11 North Dakota State – aq3 Iowa State14 Green Bay – aqNorman7 NC State10 Richmond – aq2 Oklahoma15 Western Illinois – aq

Region 4 SacramentoLos Angeles1 UCLA – aq16 Bradley – aq8 Stanford9 Mississippi StateLouisville5 Michigan State12 Ball State – aq4 Louisville – aq13 High Point – aqLexington6 Ohio State11 Fairfield – aq3 Kentucky14 Albany – aqBaton Rouge7 Baylor10 Indiana2 LSU15 Austin Peay – aq

Region 2 Fort WorthAustin1aq – Texas16aq – Southernaq – Northwestern State/8 Illinois9 Arizona StateSouth Bend5 Nebraska12aq – Rice4 Notre Dame13aq – MarshallCollege Park6 Tennessee11 Syracuse BYU/3 Maryland14aq – HowardFort Worth7aq – Princeton10 Oregon2aq – TCU15aq – UTEP

Region 3 SacramentoColumbia1 South Carolina16aq – Abilene Christianaq – Mercer/8 West Virginia9 WashingtonChapel Hill5 USC12aq – Santa Clara4 North Carolina13aq – ArmyNashville6 Texas Tech11 South Dakota State Virginia/3 Vanderbilt14aq – CharlestonAnn Arbor7 Oklahoma State10 Villanova2 Michigan15aq – Idaho

Games have come to a halt, as the schedule is idle until Sunday. But when it resumes, conference play will hit in full force and the race to March really begins. Bracketology will be there every step of the way. We continue to project the bracket every Tuesday through early January, at which point we will update projections twice a week (Tuesday and Friday).

68-Team Bracket16Southern16Northwestern State11Syracuse11BYU16Abilene Christian16Mercer11South Dakota State11VirginiaRegion 1 Fort WorthStorrs1 UConn – aq16 FDU – aq8 Georgia9 MinnesotaIowa City5 Ole Miss12 Colorado State – aq4 Iowa13 UC Irvine – aqAmes6 Alabama11 North Dakota State – aq3 Iowa State14 Green Bay – aqNorman7 NC State10 Richmond – aq2 Oklahoma15 Western Illinois – aqRegion 4 SacramentoLos Angeles1 UCLA – aq16 Bradley – aq8 Stanford9 Mississippi StateLouisville5 Michigan State12 Ball State – aq4 Louisville – aq13 High Point – aqLexington6 Ohio State11 Fairfield – aq3 Kentucky14 Albany – aqBaton Rouge7 Baylor10 Indiana2 LSU15 Austin Peay – aqRegion 2 Fort WorthAustin1aq – Texas16aq – Southernaq – Northwestern State/8 Illinois9 Arizona StateSouth Bend5 Nebraska12aq – Rice4 Notre Dame13aq – MarshallCollege Park6 Tennessee11 Syracuse BYU/3 Maryland14aq – HowardFort Worth7aq – Princeton10 Oregon2aq – TCU15aq – UTEPRegion 3 SacramentoColumbia1 South Carolina16aq – Abilene Christianaq – Mercer/8 West Virginia9 WashingtonChapel Hill5 USC12aq – Santa Clara4 North Carolina13aq – ArmyNashville6 Texas Tech11 South Dakota State Virginia/3 Vanderbilt14aq – CharlestonAnn Arbor7 Oklahoma State10 Villanova2 Michigan15aq – Idaho

The Champions Classic was the marquee event of the past weekend. UConn-Iowa headlined the doubleheader in Brooklyn. But the opener between Louisville and Tennessee was the more impactful game. Since the season started, both teams figured to be in the mix for a top-four seed; and as the first two months unfolded, the Cardinals and the Lady Volunteers lingered on the top-16 bubble. Louisville’s decisive 89-65 win Saturday shifted positioning for each, and it will be a game the Cards point to when big decisions are made in March. Louisville is now solidly inside the top 16, while the Lady Vols have some ground to make up during SEC play. The conference is deep, but with losses to Louisville and NC State, a sixth- or seventh-place finish might no longer be good enough to get first- and second-round NCAA tournament games in Knoxville.

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

By Charlie Creme Updated: 12/23/2025 at 8 a.m. ETGames have come to a halt, as the schedule is idle until Sunday. But when it resumes, conference play will hit in full force and the race to March really begins. Bracketology will be there every step of the way. We continue to project the bracket every Tuesday through early January, at which point we will update projections twice a week (Tuesday and Friday).

16Southern16Northwestern State11Syracuse11BYU16Abilene Christian16Mercer11South Dakota State11Virginia

16Southern16Northwestern State11Syracuse11BYU16Abilene Christian16Mercer11South Dakota State11Virginia

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

Bracket WatchTop Overall SeedUConnFirst Team OutKansasLast Team InBYUThe Champions Classic was the marquee event of the past weekend. UConn-Iowa headlined the doubleheader in Brooklyn. But the opener between Louisville and Tennessee was the more impactful game. Since the season started, both teams figured to be in the mix for a top-four seed; and as the first two months unfolded, the Cardinals and the Lady Volunteers lingered on the top-16 bubble. Louisville’s decisive 89-65 win Saturday shifted positioning for each, and it will be a game the Cards point to when big decisions are made in March. Louisville is now solidly inside the top 16, while the Lady Vols have some ground to make up during SEC play. The conference is deep, but with losses to Louisville and NC State, a sixth- or seventh-place finish might no longer be good enough to get first- and second-round NCAA tournament games in Knoxville.On the BubbleLast Four Byes Mississippi State Villanova Oregon IndianaLast Four In Virginia South Dakota St Syracuse BYUFirst Four Out Kansas Miami Rhode Island UtahNext Four Out Clemson Duke Columbia Virginia Tech

Top Overall SeedUConnFirst Team OutKansasLast Team InBYU

Last Four Byes Mississippi State Villanova Oregon IndianaLast Four In Virginia South Dakota St Syracuse BYUFirst Four Out Kansas Miami Rhode Island UtahNext Four Out Clemson Duke Columbia Virginia Tech

Region 1 Fort WorthStorrs1 UConn – aq16 FDU – aq8 Georgia9 MinnesotaIowa City5 Ole Miss12 Colorado State – aq4 Iowa13 UC Irvine – aqAmes6 Alabama11 North Dakota State – aq3 Iowa State14 Green Bay – aqNorman7 NC State10 Richmond – aq2 Oklahoma15 Western Illinois – aqRegion 4 SacramentoLos Angeles1 UCLA – aq16 Bradley – aq8 Stanford9 Mississippi StateLouisville5 Michigan State12 Ball State – aq4 Louisville – aq13 High Point – aqLexington6 Ohio State11 Fairfield – aq3 Kentucky14 Albany – aqBaton Rouge7 Baylor10 Indiana2 LSU15 Austin Peay – aqRegion 2 Fort WorthAustin1aq – Texas16aq – Southernaq – Northwestern State/8 Illinois9 Arizona StateSouth Bend5 Nebraska12aq – Rice4 Notre Dame13aq – MarshallCollege Park6 Tennessee11 Syracuse BYU/3 Maryland14aq – HowardFort Worth7aq – Princeton10 Oregon2aq – TCU15aq – UTEPRegion 3 SacramentoColumbia1 South Carolina16aq – Abilene Christianaq – Mercer/8 West Virginia9 WashingtonChapel Hill5 USC12aq – Santa Clara4 North Carolina13aq – ArmyNashville6 Texas Tech11 South Dakota State Virginia/3 Vanderbilt14aq – CharlestonAnn Arbor7 Oklahoma State10 Villanova2 Michigan15aq – Idaho

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