Bracketology: UConn supplants Duke as fourth No. 1 seed

By Joe Lunardi Updated: 12/23/2025 at 8 a.m. ETWelcome to the 2025-26 season! We’ll have updated Bracketology projections every Tuesday through the end of the calendar year, with twice-weekly updates beginning in early January.

EAST (WASHINGTON D.C.)Philadelphia1 UConn – aq16 Colgate – aq8 Clemson9 LSUPhiladelphia5 Tennessee12 Yale – aq4 Illinois13 High Point – aqOklahoma City6 Arkansas11 Indiana3 Kansas14 Oakland – aqGreenville7 Auburn10 UCF2 Duke – aq15 East Tennessee State – aq

WEST (SAN JOSE)San Diego1aq – Arizona16aq – Vermont8 Saint Mary’s9 SMUSan Diego5 Florida12aq – Utah Valley4 Nebraska13aq – QuinnipiacBuffalo6 St. John’s11 Baylor Ohio State/3 Michigan State14aq – St. ThomasPortland7aq – Utah State10 Miami2aq – Gonzaga15aq – New Mexico State

SOUTH (HOUSTON)St. Louis1 Iowa State16aq – Howardaq – Grambling/8 UCLA9 N.C. StateTampa5 North Carolina12aq – Akron4 Alabama13aq – LipscombPortland6 Virginia11aq – Belmont3 BYU14aq – HawaiiSt. Louis7 Kentucky10aq – Saint Louis2 Purdue15aq – Stephen F. Austin

68-Team Bracket16Lindenwood16Long Island12Butler12Oklahoma11Baylor11Ohio State16Howard16GramblingMIDWEST (CHICAGO)Buffalo1 Michigan – aq16 Lindenwood – aq/ Long Island – aq8 Georgia9 Seton HallTampa5 Texas Tech12 Butler/ Oklahoma4 Louisville13 William & Mary – aqOklahoma City6 Iowa11 Tulsa – aq3 Houston14 Arkansas State – aqGreenville7 USC10 Villanova2 Vanderbilt – aq15 Northern Colorado – aqEAST (WASHINGTON D.C.)Philadelphia1 UConn – aq16 Colgate – aq8 Clemson9 LSUPhiladelphia5 Tennessee12 Yale – aq4 Illinois13 High Point – aqOklahoma City6 Arkansas11 Indiana3 Kansas14 Oakland – aqGreenville7 Auburn10 UCF2 Duke – aq15 East Tennessee State – aqWEST (SAN JOSE)San Diego1aq – Arizona16aq – Vermont8 Saint Mary’s9 SMUSan Diego5 Florida12aq – Utah Valley4 Nebraska13aq – QuinnipiacBuffalo6 St. John’s11 Baylor Ohio State/3 Michigan State14aq – St. ThomasPortland7aq – Utah State10 Miami2aq – Gonzaga15aq – New Mexico StateSOUTH (HOUSTON)St. Louis1 Iowa State16aq – Howardaq – Grambling/8 UCLA9 N.C. StateTampa5 North Carolina12aq – Akron4 Alabama13aq – LipscombPortland6 Virginia11aq – Belmont3 BYU14aq – HawaiiSt. Louis7 Kentucky10aq – Saint Louis2 Purdue15aq – Stephen F. Austin

On the BubbleLast Four Byes UCF Villanova Miami IndianaLast Four In Baylor Ohio State Butler OklahomaFirst Four Out Oklahoma State Boise State California Arizona StateNext Four Out New Mexico Virginia Tech VCU Wisconsin

First Four Out Oklahoma State Boise State California Arizona State

Next Four Out New Mexico Virginia Tech VCU Wisconsin

16Lindenwood16Long Island12Butler12Oklahoma11Baylor11Ohio State16Howard16Grambling

MIDWEST (CHICAGO)Buffalo1 Michigan – aq16 Lindenwood – aq/ Long Island – aq8 Georgia9 Seton HallTampa5 Texas Tech12 Butler/ Oklahoma4 Louisville13 William & Mary – aqOklahoma City6 Iowa11 Tulsa – aq3 Houston14 Arkansas State – aqGreenville7 USC10 Villanova2 Vanderbilt – aq15 Northern Colorado – aq

Welcome to the 2025-26 season! We’ll have updated Bracketology projections every Tuesday through the end of the calendar year, with twice-weekly updates beginning in early January.

By Joe Lunardi Updated: 12/23/2025 at 8 a.m. ETWelcome to the 2025-26 season! We’ll have updated Bracketology projections every Tuesday through the end of the calendar year, with twice-weekly updates beginning in early January.

MIDWEST (CHICAGO)Buffalo1 Michigan – aq16 Lindenwood – aq/ Long Island – aq8 Georgia9 Seton HallTampa5 Texas Tech12 Butler/ Oklahoma4 Louisville13 William & Mary – aqOklahoma City6 Iowa11 Tulsa – aq3 Houston14 Arkansas State – aqGreenville7 USC10 Villanova2 Vanderbilt – aq15 Northern Colorado – aqEAST (WASHINGTON D.C.)Philadelphia1 UConn – aq16 Colgate – aq8 Clemson9 LSUPhiladelphia5 Tennessee12 Yale – aq4 Illinois13 High Point – aqOklahoma City6 Arkansas11 Indiana3 Kansas14 Oakland – aqGreenville7 Auburn10 UCF2 Duke – aq15 East Tennessee State – aqWEST (SAN JOSE)San Diego1aq – Arizona16aq – Vermont8 Saint Mary’s9 SMUSan Diego5 Florida12aq – Utah Valley4 Nebraska13aq – QuinnipiacBuffalo6 St. John’s11 Baylor Ohio State/3 Michigan State14aq – St. ThomasPortland7aq – Utah State10 Miami2aq – Gonzaga15aq – New Mexico StateSOUTH (HOUSTON)St. Louis1 Iowa State16aq – Howardaq – Grambling/8 UCLA9 N.C. StateTampa5 North Carolina12aq – Akron4 Alabama13aq – LipscombPortland6 Virginia11aq – Belmont3 BYU14aq – HawaiiSt. Louis7 Kentucky10aq – Saint Louis2 Purdue15aq – Stephen F. Austin

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

Top Overall SeedMichiganFirst Team OutOklahoma StateLast Team InOklahoma

Last Four Byes UCF Villanova Miami IndianaLast Four In Baylor Ohio State Butler OklahomaFirst Four Out Oklahoma State Boise State California Arizona StateNext Four Out New Mexico Virginia Tech VCU Wisconsin

16Lindenwood16Long Island12Butler12Oklahoma11Baylor11Ohio State16Howard16Grambling

16Lindenwood16Long Island12Butler12Oklahoma11Baylor11Ohio State16Howard16Grambling

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

Bracket WatchTop Overall SeedMichiganFirst Team OutOklahoma StateLast Team InOklahomaMuch of the nonconference schedule has been dominated by the Big Ten and Big 12 powers. Michigan, Arizona, Iowa State and Purdue have rightfully captured headlines. But a potentially major storyline is brewing in the East Region: UConn and Duke are on a collision course for a potential Elite Eight showdown. The Huskies claim the East’s top seed in the latest projections after the Blue Devils gave up that position with their loss to Texas Tech. Even if these two swap spots again, UConn figures to open its tournament in Philadelphia as a 1- or 2-seed, and Duke will be in Greenville, South Carolina, as whichever seed the Huskies are not. The regional final would be about halfway between the two schools — in Washington, D.C. — for their first encounter in more than a decade. Buckle up.

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Much of the nonconference schedule has been dominated by the Big Ten and Big 12 powers. Michigan, Arizona, Iowa State and Purdue have rightfully captured headlines. But a potentially major storyline is brewing in the East Region: UConn and Duke are on a collision course for a potential Elite Eight showdown. The Huskies claim the East’s top seed in the latest projections after the Blue Devils gave up that position with their loss to Texas Tech. Even if these two swap spots again, UConn figures to open its tournament in Philadelphia as a 1- or 2-seed, and Duke will be in Greenville, South Carolina, as whichever seed the Huskies are not. The regional final would be about halfway between the two schools — in Washington, D.C. — for their first encounter in more than a decade. Buckle up.

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