Why fantasy managers should start Tyler Shough in Week 17 (1:18)Tristan H. Cockcroft explains why he backs Saints rookie quarterback Tyler Shough as a fantasy starter in Week 17. (1:18)
Making tough lineup decisions every week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you’re torn between two similar players and simply don’t know which one to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
“Adj. FPA,” or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players’ weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it’s unfavorable. Also, remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover a team’s personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my — and the ESPN fantasy staff’s — most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Our matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying on season totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
Matchups highlight: Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Arizona Cardinals). Joe Burrow’s healthy return has arguably paid the biggest dividends for his running back, as Brown’s 85.7 fantasy points over the past four weeks are the position’s third most (Bijan Robinson 99.0, James Cook III 87.3). Considering this game began the week with the highest over/under (53.5) and with the Bengals favored by a touchdown, Brown seems likely to stand out yet again. The Cardinals have surrendered 33.9 fantasy points per game to running backs over the past six weeks (most in the league), with eight individuals scoring in double digits.
Matchups highlight: Drake London, Atlanta Falcons (vs. Los Angeles Rams, “Monday Night Football”) His return from a knee injury didn’t result in much fantasy production, but he played 70% of the Falcons’ offensive snaps and ran 30 routes, which at least indicated his ability to handle a full-time (if not close to it) role. With another week’s opportunity to heal, London should capitalize on this matchup against a reeling Rams secondary. Four wide receivers scored 23 or more fantasy points against the Rams in the past three weeks alone, and the Rams’ cornerback trio of Cobie Durant, Emmanuel Forbes Jr. and Josh Wallace has afforded the position 29.8 points per game as the nearest defender in those games.
Matchup to avoid: Jameson Williams, Lions (at Vikings). He’s a risk/reward play, and accounting for the matchup, consider the downside involved when deciding between closely ranked wide receivers. Williams has generated 26% of his fantasy production on deep throws (those thrown at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage), while the opposing Vikings have afforded wide receivers 19.3 fantasy points total on those plays in the past seven weeks. During that time, they have held several significant wide receivers — Jaxon Smith-Njigba (4.3 fantasy points in Week 13), Terry McLaurin (7.1, Week 14), George Pickens (6.3, Week 15) and Wan’Dale Robinson (5.2, Week 16) — to fewer than 10 fantasy points on all types of throws.
Matchups highlight: Harold Fannin Jr., Cleveland Browns (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers) He has flourished since David Njoku’s knee injury first occurred during Week 6, costing Njoku three games (Weeks 7, 15 and 16) and expanding the rookie’s role in the offense. Over the past 11 weeks, Fannin ranks second among tight ends in target share (26.0%) and fifth in fantasy points (130.7), and he’s well on pace to have one of the position’s best-ever point totals by a rookie. A Steelers matchup makes him a top-five positional play, considering they have seen three tight ends exceed 12 fantasy points over the past four weeks, and they afforded 13.8 points to the Lions’ Anthony Firkser/Shane Zylstra combination last week.
Matchup to avoid: Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (at Buffalo Bills). Fannin bucked this matchup last week, but it also took a rushing touchdown for him to put up 19.5 fantasy points. Putting him aside, Mike Gesicki is the only other tight end to have scored 13 or more points against the Bills this season. Goedert has had a fine fantasy season, but he has also been extremely fortunate in the touchdown department, resulting in his scoring 42 more fantasy points than expected in 2025. This is a matchup where a lower point total seems likely from him.
Why fantasy managers should start Tyler Shough in Week 17 (1:18)Tristan H. Cockcroft explains why he backs Saints rookie quarterback Tyler Shough as a fantasy starter in Week 17. (1:18)
Tristan H. Cockcroft explains why he backs Saints rookie quarterback Tyler Shough as a fantasy starter in Week 17. (1:18)
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints (at Tennessee Titans)
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Miami Dolphins)
TreVeyon Henderson/Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots (at Jets)
Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants (at Las Vegas Raiders)
Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers (vs. Chicago Bears)
Jakobi Meyers, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Indianapolis Colts)
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Detroit Lions, Thu. 4:30 p.m. ET)